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WHICH
STOCKS DO YOU BUY?
by David N. Vaughn
Gold Letter,
Inc.
April 18, 2007
Gold
continues to stretch its legs closer to the magic number, 700.

But
even 700 will not be the final destination. For gold to rise as high as
it did adjusted for inflation back in 1980 we will have to see a gold
price around 2,500 dollars an ounce. And look at Monday’s chart below
as gold hits the 690s.

You
know one of the hardest things to do when investing is remaining
emotionally detached from what we are buying and/or speculating in. How
do we become emotionally attached? We make the mistake of falling in
love with or simply liking our stocks in our portfolio. Stocks are not
our friends and good buddies. They are vehicles that enable us to make
money.
“Gold prices will set
a record high this year in terms of their annual average and
may scale new absolute peaks on a weaker dollar outlook, a
slowdown in the U.S. economy and geopolitical tensions, a report said on
Wednesday.” Click
But
we do become emotionally attached and I think I know the reason. It is
our natural inclination to “like” or even to love what ever business
we are engaged in. So we invest in a particular stock then we have to
like it in an abnormal way, right? Wrong.
Dear
David,
“Ah,
but you forget my favorite silly quote of all.” "Eustace had read
only the wrong sort of books; they were long on exports and fat foreign
children doing sums, but rather short on dragons." Dragons have
been "far away, and therefore legendary" for so long that the
average person has no idea what is coming, his investing education has
been neither scientific nor classical but “merely modern". Truth
will be a hard lesson to learn.”
Regards,
Calli
M.
The
worst mistake you can make is “liking” the company you have
purchased a stake in. Instead, we should like merely the concept of
profiting from that stock. Stocks exist to be traded. Shares don’t
exist to be loved or liked. We invest with the hope of selling the
blasted thing down the road for a profit.
Dear
Dave,
“I
bought physical gold in November 2005. The rest is history. During this
time I held my asset and was not perturbed a bit as you convincingly
emphasized on the long term bullish view on metals. Few of my friends
and relatives invested in gold following my footsteps, but were really
nervous during high volatility and correction phases in the gold price.
NOW THEY ARE ALSO THANKFUL FOR MY ADVICE. I believe the credit goes to
you. Thanks & best regards.”
Zafar
R.
You
will make more money and be more successful if you can follow this
practice. As I said before you need to maintain a cold and heartless
disposition to all those shares you now hold in your portfolio, right?
If you study the masters such as Livermore, Dines and Casey you will
discern in their work that a share is merely an inanimate object created
to be traded and profited off of. Easier said than done.
Mike
Whitney
- “Gold isn’t going up; it’s simply a meter on the waning value of
the dollar. The reality is
that the dollar is tanking big-time, and the main culprit is
the widening trade deficit.” “The demolition of the dollar isn’t
accidental. It’s part of a plan to shift wealth from one class to
another and concentrate political power in the hands of a permanent
ruling elite.” “Now that
foreign purchases of US debt are dropping off, the greenback could
plunge to even greater depths. There’s really no way of
knowing how far the dollar will fall.” Click
I
suppose for this reason so many folks don’t make too much money from
their investments. They fall in love and refuse to let them go at the
appropriate time. What is that old verse, "There is a time to plant
and a time to reap.” Simple truth, but who really pays it any heed.
We
should all study Casey the immortal. Casey preaches to all who will
listen and pay attention to think of these resource stocks as “burning
matches.” And when you strike a match how long do you hold the burning
flame in your hand? Of course timing is everything. Well the time may
vary according to each individual match but understand the principal.
Whether you hold for one month, one year or several years your goal is
to sell the darned thing eventually and lock in your profits. OK, so I
can’t talk you into selling then at least consider selling a portion
for the purpose of extracting your original capital.
This
all sounds simple I know but understanding these key principals is not
an option if you truly want to make money and not over play your hand.
So, back to our original question. Which stocks do you buy? Buy only
those you can buy that you will not become emotionally attached to. Buy
only those shares you will be able to part with when the appropriate
time comes. You wait too late or you snooze then you lose.
“We
are all men, feeble, frail and apt to faint.” Charles H. Spurgeon
Did
you catch that last comment about being feeble and prone to fainting?
That describes the middle class every month when the bills come. For
those yet who do not believe in strong inflation figures start doing the
weekly grocery shopping and personally paying the monthly bills.
Daniel
Webster
- “Of all the contrivances
for cheating the laboring classes of mankind, none has been more
effective than that which deludes them with paper money.” Click
And
let’s not forget our good and excellent friend, uranium. Look at that
price chart below. Uranium continues to climb to the stratosphere with
no end in sight.

Is
this price chart for real?
“RBC
says uranium bull market thriving and forecasts average $100/lb price in
2007.” “In
a recent study, RBC Capital Markets advised that mining remains in the
middle of a uranium bull market with an average $100/lb price this
year.” “RBC's analysis
asserts that a supply-gap will exist in uranium after 2013.” Click
And
as the price of gold and uranium head up the US Dollar is heading to the
basement!
Dear
David,
“Now
this is getting interesting. The USD (US Dollar) is tanking, the Fed cannot
raise rates as the housing market implodes. Gas prices are going
through the roof, as are all my groceries, taxes, insurance, etc. So the
Fed is in one huge quagmire.” “What would really make me
"happy"? Seeing gold pop one day around $25 to $35 bucks to
the upside. That might shake a few of the scumbag shorts on the COMEX
loose.” “We'll see how things progress through the rest of 2007.
Maybe this could be the "it" year for both silver and gold. I
will continue to buy both silver and gold bullion.”
Eric
Y.
And
as the US Dollar tanks Rome quietly burns.
Dear
Dave,
I
am by no means clairvoyant, but anybody with just a vague idea of what
is going on with the USD (US Dollar) can predict the future to a
reasonable degree of accuracy. The Fed is obviously between hell and
high water. Fiscal policies of the past are rapidly catching up
with the realities of today (stagflation).To
prevent a total collapse in the USD, the Fed has no alternative but to
increase the money supply, thereby averting a major meltdown
in real estate and the markets. This I believe we will see over the next
several months.” “One final "dead cat bounce" in real
estate over the summer is predicted, followed by massive price inflation
starting in Q3. Then all
hell breaks loose in Q4, sending all commodities into the ionosphere.”
“Inflation will slowly become apparent to the masses in terms of
higher prices. The frog gets cooked in the end with everybody rushing
into commodities and PMs to preserve what little buying power their
dollars have left.” “The future gets cloudy at this point, but
inflation rules…”
Anthony
P. S.
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©
2007 David N. Vaughn
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