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The Price / Earnings Ratio has long been recognized as one of the most useful financial indicators for valuing both individual stocks and stock markets. However as with individual stocks, it can be misleading if not also taking into account growth prospects for a particular economy. One of the primary indicators of growth is a countries real GDP, and as with an individual stock analysis, it is the consistency of trend that is important so as to avoid one year growth spurts. Therefore the following table evaluates current country main indices P/E Ratios against GDP growth trends for 2008, as an indicator of prospects for future stock price appreciation in terms of relative valuations.
Analysis suggests the following fundamental picture based on earnings and trend adjusted growth for 2008. Cheap
markets Fair Priced Expensive
Markets Basket
Case Conclusion: Hong Kong, Canada, Australia, and Brazil are good long-term prospects, but they are not cheap, therefore a reaction or correction would present a buying opportunity there. China, UK, USA. Suggests being underweight in domestic stocks. China, this market is not cheap, I pulled out of this months ago and await a serious pull back before contemplating re-entering, were talking 30%+ Though there are plenty of better opportunities even after a pull back of 30%. I just cannot fathom why so many people are obsessed with piling into Japan ? Immediate Term Technical Outlook My technical take for a month now has been for Western stock markets to outperform the asian stock markets, to decouple so to speak.( 21 Oct 2007) , ( 04 Nov 2007 ), ( 12 Nov 2007) This is being borne out by actual price movements. I.e. This week US stocks closed marginally higher with the S&P up 0.35%. Whilst China and Hong Kong stocks fell, with the Hang Seng down 4% and the Shanghai Index down 1%. I anticipate this trend to continue into the New Year, as the Western markets are still gearing up towards a strong end of year rally. Banking Sector Having watched the banking sector crash towards multi-year lows, I am now finally contemplating entering the market to pick up some cheap bank stocks for the long-run. My reasoning is mostly technical, but also supported by the assumption that the financial and banking stocks world over have lost trillions in market capitalization. That's against a worst case scenario of some $400 billions of bad debt losses over 2 years, as against $45 billion of actually reported bad debt provisions to date. Check by the Market Oracle site for an article to be published Monday morning - Banking Stocks - Is It Time To Buy? Yours, thinking about adding to Indian and Turkish stocks for the long-run on Monday, (since I am already fully loaded with Russia and South Korea), and feeling the urge to buy certain banks.
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