Our Russian Oracle

North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il is ready for a fight. Two days ago the North Korean military announced, "We do not hope for war, but if South Korea ... tries to attack us Kim Jong-il has ordered us to finish the task of unification left undone during the [Korean] war." And why should there be a war? Last March North Korea sank a South Korean corvette. There are a number of possible explanations for this. Perhaps the North Koreans were testing President Obama. Perhaps it was a planned diversion, insofar as North Korea is aligned with the Islamic Republic of Iran, and everyone knows that Iran is in the crosshairs of the American military. In this situation, how does one restrain the "American imperialists"? Make Washington believe war is imminent on the Korean peninsula. Divert America's aircraft carriers from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Japan.

Undoubtedly we are approaching a dangerous passage; and the country to watch, above all others, is Russia -- the country with the best intelligence services on the planet, and with a unique history of successfully penetrating the intelligence services of other countries (including the United States). The Russians can see around corners, anticipate events, and manipulate the thinking of Western politicians. If you want to peer into the future, and see what the future holds for Korea and the Middle East, watch Russia. Weeks before September 11, 2001, the Russian Duma held hearings that featured a Kremlin advisor, Tatyana Koryagina, who predicted something she called "Tidal Wave 21." The main blow from this tidal wave, she said, "will be inflicted on the United States of America." She did not mention who would be inflicting the blow, but later referred to "shadow forces." She noted that the world had accumulated $400 trillion in financial assets, but the global GDP was only a $30 trillion. The entire structure of global finance was bloated, and ready to burst.

Whenever something big is expected to happen in the world, it is difficult for those who know about it to say and do nothing in advance. Russian policies and pronouncements often provide signals to the wise. Prior to the Russian invasion of Georgia, the intended war and its diplomatic exploitation was alluded to in a speech delivered by President Dmitri Medvedev on 15 July 2008 at the Russian Foreign Ministry in Moscow. In another prescient sequence, Russia urged China to dump Fannie and Freddie bonds in August 2008, a month before the historic U.S. financial meltdown. It is worth noting that the Russians sold $65.6 billion in Fannie and Freddie debt at the beginning of that same year. (As it happens, Fannie and Freddie were seized by regulators on 6 September 2008.) The Russians have spies everywhere, who keep close tabs on global finance, military affairs and politics. The Russians piggy-back on international organized crime, which is a key source of information on corruption and the global underground economy.

The Russians also do more. They make the future, directly, instead of merely reacting to events. Back in the 1980s, for example, you might ask whether Europe was going to use Russian natural gas or continue to build nuclear power plants. The answer appeared by way of a nuclear reactor accident at a place called Chernobyl. Europe's future dependence on Russian natural gas was thereby sealed. To take another, more recent, example: a KGB analyst in Moscow has predicted civil war in the United States. According to Russia's Igor Panarin, America's breakup will occur sometime around 2010 or 2011. In this instance, the Chernobyl component has yet to be detonated.

Consider recent events: Russia's Foreign Ministry has been given a new security template, which suggests some kind of pre-war mobilization. Meanwhile, under the cover of a slick "peace offensive" aimed at Europe and the United States, Russia is sending powerful warships to the Far East. Does Moscow expect the Korean crisis to worsen? Perhaps the Russians know something that we don't. In an interview earlier this month, President Medvedev discussed the establishment of a special "history commission." This has become necessary to counter the work of a former GRU officer, Victor Suvorov. In a recent book titled The Chief Culprit: Stalin's Design to Start World War II, Suvorov unveils the modus operandi of Kremlin grand strategy. "Stalin's tactic relied on doing everything with someone else's hands," noted Suvorov, "eliminating one enemy with the hands of the other." As Robert Conquest once wrote: "Stalin always found monkeys, who brought him nuts from the hottest fire." Whether those nuts are fetched from Kim's North Korea, or the Ayatollah's Iran, monkeys can always be found, and somebody's nuts are always in the fire. Ask yourself the following questions: Why did Moscow help to train Hitler's army in the 1930s? Why has the Kremlin facilitated the transfer of nuclear technology to Iran? And who, for that matter, supplied North Korea with the technical know-how to build a nuclear device (which may, in fact, be an EMP device)? The answer is Moscow.

No doubt, Suvorov's work hits too close to home, and must be challenged by way of Medvedev's newly formed commission. For history, in this case, is not merely history. It is a discourse on method, and a deft allusion to current events. While Medvedev does not name Suvorov openly, there can be no mistaking his intended target. Quite naturally, the Kremlin does not like inquiries into Russia's past. Therein lies not only the key to Moscow's prescience, but a window through which to view our own future.