Market Observations on Commodities

FS Staff's picture
FS Staff
08/19/2014 - 15:35
Jim Puplava responds to feedback received over the last few months. Has the 2014-2016 crisis window been delayed? What happened to peak oil and metals? Are you still positive on the markets and the economy?
Gary Dorsch's picture
Gary Dorsch
07/16/2014 - 08:52
In an age when governments of every political leaning and ideological stripe distort economic data to promote their parties’ interests, it is hardly surprising that the nation’s inflation rate is reported in a manner that best suits their political...
Thomas J Smith CFA's picture
Thomas J Smith CFA
06/17/2014 - 11:19
In 2010, 2011, and 2012 aggressive moves higher in energy prices led to a selloff in the market. There was a small contraction in P/Es earlier in the year as natural gas prices spiked. A sustained move higher in energy prices will set a negative...
Thomas J Smith CFA's picture
Thomas J Smith CFA
05/13/2014 - 12:03
Today, investments in China make up close to 50% of their GDP. That rate is unsustainable. As China goes through the long and slow process of spending less on infrastructure and raw materials and more on domestic led consumption, the demand for many...
Ryan Puplava CMT's picture
Ryan Puplava CMT
02/20/2014 - 16:55
Rotations come and they go, typically lasting between six and nine months. Rotation is to stocks what location is to real estate. You have to be aware that diversified investment managers are always looking at their portfolio weightings to increase...
Carl Swenlin's picture
Carl Swenlin
01/14/2014 - 16:12
The market rallied hard, and almost all of yesterday's losses were recovered. Positive numbers for December retail sales are given credit for today's energetic advance, but it probably has more to do with shorts being squeezed. This market has been...
Chris Puplava's picture
Chris Puplava
12/19/2013 - 17:27
Too often as investors we become wed to our individual investments or narratives, and refuse to acknowledge major trends taking shape before our very eyes. Often this results in refusing to sell investments that performed well in the past, while...
Erin Swenlin Heim's picture
Erin Swenlin Heim
11/06/2013 - 16:24
Price is consolidating sideways and unfortunately it results in our indicators having tremors. With jittery daily indicator readings, we have to look at the trend and all of the indicators are trending lower, giving the impression there isn't much...
Chris Puplava's picture
Chris Puplava
08/28/2013 - 15:10
The biggest capital market in the world is the currency market, which trumps the bond market, which trumps the stock market in terms of capital flows. It is due to the size and importance of the currency markets that one should always keep a keen...
Thomas J Smith CFA's picture
Thomas J Smith CFA
08/27/2013 - 12:59
For the better part of 15 years an enormous spike in Chinese investments created a silent tax on all of here in the U.S. Over the past decade we witnessed the commodity supercycle. China’s massive economic build out created massive demand for...
Erin Swenlin Heim's picture
Erin Swenlin Heim
07/02/2013 - 15:52
We can't read too much into this week's trading action, but in the short term the market looks weak and short-term indicators have topped and are overbought. No point in making any serious investment decisions until trading gets back to 'normal'...
John Butler's picture
John Butler
07/01/2013 - 10:00
The Fed recently triggered a spike in Treasury bond yields with a gentle hint that it might begin to scale back its purchases later this year. Markets appear to have taken the Fed at its word, in so doing providing clear evidence that quantitative...
FS Staff's picture
FS Staff
06/19/2013 - 11:38
Resource analyst John Kaiser says that if there isn’t a turnaround in the price of gold and other commodities in the next 2-3 years, the western mining industry faces a serious crisis.
Ryan Puplava CMT's picture
Ryan Puplava CMT
01/10/2013 - 16:28
Today, we got the ECB meeting and the Chinese trade metrics – both of which were bullish catalysts for commodities. The effects of both announcements today were effective in bidding up the euro and supplying the market with U.S. dollars.
John Butler's picture
John Butler
09/18/2012 - 08:21
Negative interest rates will result in a preference for physical cash and checks rather than bank deposits, actions that will destabilise banks’ funding base and impair their ability to make loans. Now what do you think that will do to the...
Ryan Puplava CMT's picture
Ryan Puplava CMT
07/05/2012 - 15:42
The dollar strengthened today based on foreign central bank policy steps. Oddly enough, while the dollar strengthened the CRB index was up small. That’s because soft commodities like corn, wheat, OJ, and soybeans led the index higher with strong...
Erin Swenlin Heim's picture
Erin Swenlin Heim
03/06/2012 - 17:08
After weeks of advancing slowly, the market finally had a small short-term breakdown yesterday. Today, however was the 'real deal' breakdown we have been waiting for. Looking at the 10-minute bar chart we see that price was down immediately on the...
Ryan Puplava CMT's picture
Ryan Puplava CMT
02/23/2012 - 14:52
With central banks easing and global manufacturing improving, how could the commodities not do well? Intermarket analysis shows us that commodities are the last to turn in a cycle and they appear to be at a bullish inflection point now. With the S...
Ryan Puplava CMT's picture
Ryan Puplava CMT
10/20/2011 - 15:58
Copper has technically fulfilled a lot of the requirements it needs to put in a major bottom with momentum divergence, a major support zone, and a bearish corrective pattern that has completed. Other economically sensitive commodities have also...
Chris Puplava's picture
Chris Puplava
10/07/2011 - 16:22
Given the sharp selloff in silver over the last few months it’s not surprising to see silver in oversold territory, but how oversold is it relative to prior corrections? To show how extreme silver’s recent oversold condition is, our silver risk...
Matthew Millar's picture
Matthew Millar
09/06/2011 - 18:47
Given the extremity of current monetary and debt dynamics, it is difficult to know where the dollar and euro may be in the coming days and months. This article attempts to take some of this uncertainty out of the equation and look strictly at...
Chris Martenson PhD's picture
Chris Martenson PhD
07/28/2011 - 08:21
Bernanke has engineered an ugly choice between guaranteed losses via negative real compounding and taking on imprudent investment risk. 
Chris Ciovacco's picture
Chris Ciovacco
07/12/2011 - 08:34
In a volatile environment, it is helpful to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. There are serious problems with debt in the United States and Europe, which are representative of the negative side of the bull-bear debate. 
Ryan Puplava CMT's picture
Ryan Puplava CMT
07/07/2011 - 16:01
It was set to be a quiet, short week. The markets had already rallied 5.5% from the week previous. What more could the market do after 5 straight session gains? Two major scheduled events hit the tape today including the ADP jobs report (which...
Chris Puplava's picture
Chris Puplava
06/24/2011 - 16:00
While no recessionary alarms for the U.S. and global economy have been rung yet, risks currently remain to the downside and global stock markets and commodities should be monitored closely ahead. Without a stabilization in global...
Chris Puplava's picture
Chris Puplava
05/27/2011 - 15:07
Typically there are a few major inflection points in the year where assets either switch gears and reverse their prior trends or undergo an acceleration of their current trend. One of the key themes that have often marked these inflection points...
Ronald Griess's picture
Ronald Griess
05/17/2011 - 14:37
We are going to review inflation by looking at import prices, producer prices and consumer prices, all with data through April, 2011. We will also examine the purchasing power of the consumer dollar and the “real yield” of several items.
Ryan Puplava CMT's picture
Ryan Puplava CMT
05/12/2011 - 14:31
The stock market is in good shape. It’s the commodities and the commodity producers that have given back some. While silver and gold bullion have been capturing headlines in the great sell-off as of late, the producers have been in decline weeks...
Thomas J Smith CFA's picture
Thomas J Smith CFA
05/09/2011 - 08:53
The beginning of this month the dollar saw its first sustained rally in several weeks. Continued concerns over events in Greece caused a sell off in the Euro and a rally in the greenback. Dollar weakness had been fuel for a rally in the commodities...
Chris Puplava's picture
Chris Puplava
05/06/2011 - 16:01
It’s not every day that you get to witness a four standard deviation event. Last week was one of them. If a stock moves 4 standard deviations above or below its mean you know that there is a 99.994% chance that it should reverse. Last Thursday our...

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