Market Observations on Commodities
10 Jan 2013
Today, we got the ECB meeting and the Chinese trade metrics – both of which were bullish catalysts for commodities. The effects of both announcements today were effective in bidding up the euro and supplying the market with U.S. dollars.
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18 Sep 2012
Negative interest rates will result in a preference for physical cash and checks rather than bank deposits, actions that will destabilise banks’ funding base and impair their ability to make loans. Now what do you think that will do to the...
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5 Jul 2012
The dollar strengthened today based on foreign central bank policy steps. Oddly enough, while the dollar strengthened the CRB index was up small. That’s because soft commodities like corn, wheat, OJ, and soybeans led the index higher with strong...
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6 Mar 2012
After weeks of advancing slowly, the market finally had a small short-term breakdown yesterday. Today, however was the 'real deal' breakdown we have been waiting for. Looking at the 10-minute bar chart we see that price was down immediately on the...
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23 Feb 2012
With central banks easing and global manufacturing improving, how could the commodities not do well? Intermarket analysis shows us that commodities are the last to turn in a cycle and they appear to be at a bullish inflection point now. With the S...
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20 Oct 2011
Copper has technically fulfilled a lot of the requirements it needs to put in a major bottom with momentum divergence, a major support zone, and a bearish corrective pattern that has completed. Other economically sensitive commodities have also...
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7 Oct 2011
Given the sharp selloff in silver over the last few months it’s not surprising to see silver in oversold territory, but how oversold is it relative to prior corrections? To show how extreme silver’s recent oversold condition is, our silver risk...
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6 Sep 2011
Given the extremity of current monetary and debt dynamics, it is difficult to know where the dollar and euro may be in the coming days and months. This article attempts to take some of this uncertainty out of the equation and look strictly at...
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28 Jul 2011
Bernanke has engineered an ugly choice between guaranteed losses via negative real compounding and taking on imprudent investment risk.
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12 Jul 2011
In a volatile environment, it is helpful to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. There are serious problems with debt in the United States and Europe, which are representative of the negative side of the bull-bear debate.
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7 Jul 2011
It was set to be a quiet, short week. The markets had already rallied 5.5% from the week previous. What more could the market do after 5 straight session gains? Two major scheduled events hit the tape today including the ADP jobs report (which...
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24 Jun 2011
While no recessionary alarms for the U.S. and global economy have been rung yet, risks currently remain to the downside and global stock markets and commodities should be monitored closely ahead. Without a stabilization in global...
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27 May 2011
Typically there are a few major inflection points in the year where assets either switch gears and reverse their prior trends or undergo an acceleration of their current trend. One of the key themes that have often marked these inflection points...
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17 May 2011
We are going to review inflation by looking at import prices, producer prices and consumer prices, all with data through April, 2011. We will also examine the purchasing power of the consumer dollar and the “real yield” of several items.
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12 May 2011
The stock market is in good shape. It’s the commodities and the commodity producers that have given back some. While silver and gold bullion have been capturing headlines in the great sell-off as of late, the producers have been in decline weeks...
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9 May 2011
The beginning of this month the dollar saw its first sustained rally in several weeks. Continued concerns over events in Greece caused a sell off in the Euro and a rally in the greenback. Dollar weakness had been fuel for a rally in the commodities...
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6 May 2011
It’s not every day that you get to witness a four standard deviation event. Last week was one of them. If a stock moves 4 standard deviations above or below its mean you know that there is a 99.994% chance that it should reverse. Last Thursday our...
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2 May 2011
Regardless of how you cut it, the market ended April on a positive technical bias. On a monthly basis we have been on a buy signal since last September. I look at the 12 and 20 month moving averages. If the S...
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21 Apr 2011
One of the ways I like to disengage my fellow managing staff at PFS Group from their emotional connection to an investment is to run multiple unmarked charts in a meeting to determine whether they’d buy or sell a stock based on the chart of the...
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20 Apr 2011
"The BDI is one of the purest leading indicators of economic activity. It measures the demand to move raw materials and precursors to production, as well as the supply of ships available to move this cargo. Consumer spending and other economic...
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11 Apr 2011
The market seems a bit tired as we enter first quarter earnings season. It's also becoming increasingly selective. So, look through your portfolios and eliminate weak performers because the market is going to treat laggards harshly this earnings...
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7 Apr 2011
The Energy and Industrial sectors continue to extend gains made earlier in the year while the material sector has been the best performer since the March 16th bottom relative to the S...
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11 Mar 2011
It seems that most everyone is again focused on commodities and I continue to hear talk of $5.00 per gallon gasoline. I obviously can’t deny the fact that commodities have been in an uptrend. In fact, there is a longer-term cycle that averages...
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8 Mar 2011
A lot of questions have been asked by economists wondering at what price will oil cause a recession. Secondly, they’ve been asking at what level interest rates will hinder economic growth. The consensus seems to believe that $150 and $200 oil are...
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2 Mar 2011
A key concept for investors to grasp is that money, once created, will always find a home and the two primary places are the economy and monetary assets. While the economy is moving along at a decent clip it certainly is not matching the roaring...
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24 Feb 2011
We head into Thursday’s trading session with an extended market that now has two negative fundamental factors to focus on; the Middle East and rapidly rising oil prices.
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23 Feb 2011
If the Fed is unable to launch a third QE program come June when QE2 ends, then the current economic expansion will come face to face with its first true test as the second half of 2011 will likely showcase another growth scare even more pronounced...
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16 Feb 2011
Predicting the stock market is tough, but following the trend is not. In this article, I show how we can identify bull or bear markets with two simple trend-following measures and how, currently, the outlook for the market is still positive.
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9 Feb 2011
While central bankers are “experts” on economic theory, we would all be well served if they had a little education on real world physics—that is, those immutable laws governing the universe that aren't subject to the whims of economic mis-...
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25 Jan 2011
From the beginning of 2007 to July 2008, oil prices began a triple-digit trek. In that time period, alternative energy soared, but mainly in two segments: solar and uranium. Wind turbine companies like Vestas Wind Systems performed, but it was First...
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