Market Observations on the Economy

FS Staff's picture
FS Staff
11/25/2015 - 17:25
Debate between hardline bears and bull market enthusiasts keeps coming back to concerns over a looming recession with one side pointing to the ongoing slide in manufacturing and the other to a strong service sector. “It really is an interesting...
Chris Ciovacco's picture
Chris Ciovacco
11/24/2015 - 08:20
Based on 30-day Fed fund futures prices, the CME Group estimates a 74% probability the Fed will raise rates in December after keeping them steady for years. From a historical perspective, the table below shows the dates when the Federal Reserve...
Patrick O'Hare's picture
Patrick O'Hare
11/23/2015 - 10:36
When 2014 was coming to an end, we published our Market View for 2015. In that piece, we said our expectation for 2015 was that market gains would track closer to earnings per share (EPS) growth. At the time, analysts' average estimate pegged 2015...
FS Staff's picture
FS Staff
11/19/2015 - 08:50
A book was just released that is sure to be the talk of energy executives, investors, and academics around the globe. It is named by the no-hype title, The Price of Oil, where experts Roberto Aguilera and Marian Radetzki argue quite persuasively...
FS Staff's picture
FS Staff
11/17/2015 - 15:27
Slowing global economic growth has been cited as a major cause of stock market weakness this year. However, in his latest Big Picture podcast, Jim Puplava cited two main indicators that show the global economy is not about to fall off the cliff but...
Kurt Kallaus's picture
Kurt Kallaus
11/11/2015 - 16:25
While factories are a minor portion of employment and income, even this weak sector is being overly maligned by a healthy cooling of the energy sector. Cheaper petroleum and commodity prices have definitely subdued the manufacturing sector, but will...
Roberto Aguilera's picture
Roberto Aguilera
11/11/2015 - 14:56
Oil price rises over the past 40 years have been truly spectacular, but the recent fall is probably here to stay, thanks to increasing production. We discuss these trends in our new book, The Price of Oil, published this month.
Charles Hugh Smith's picture
Charles Hugh Smith
11/11/2015 - 10:21
To the degree that serfdom is political powerlessness and near-zero access to the processes of accumulating productive capital, super-welfare guaranteed income for all is simply serfdom institutionalized into a Hell devoid of purpose, pride, meaning...
Matthew Kerkhoff's picture
Matthew Kerkhoff
11/10/2015 - 08:43
Investors are once again battening down the hatches, preparing themselves for rough conditions stirred up by the Fed’s weather system. The FOMC’s latest remarks, combined with last Friday’s strong jobs report, have convinced many investors that the...
FS Staff's picture
FS Staff
11/06/2015 - 18:42
Once again, Jim O'Sullivan, Chief US Economist at High Frequency Economics, fulfills his title as one of the most accurate forecasters in America. Speaking to him last week before Friday's much stronger-than-expected US jobs report, which sent the...