Market Observations on the Economy

FS Staff's picture
FS Staff
09/19/2014 - 13:25
With mounting geopolitical tension, lack of opportunities overseas, and the relative attractiveness of U.S. markets, foreign investors are bidding up the price of U.S. stocks and the dollar, which is putting increasing pressure on gold, oil, and...
FS Staff's picture
FS Staff
09/18/2014 - 21:03
Between Ukraine and ISIS, 2014 has been a year marked by geopolitical tension. Yet, contrary to intuition, market volatility has continued to trend downward along with the price of gold and oil, while stocks continue to hit new all-time highs. Why?
Chris Puplava's picture
Chris Puplava
09/15/2014 - 10:12
Should the USD break out from its 2005 to present bearish trend, we should see some significant developments in inter-market relationships. For starters, the relative performance of U.S. stocks relative to the MSCI World Stock Index Excluding the U....
Brian Pretti CFA's picture
Brian Pretti CFA
09/10/2014 - 08:10
All the chatter from the Fed about interest rate levels, forward guidance, tapering, etc. is largely noise. In a consumption driven economy, wage growth is the accelerant of consumption growth, not rising equity and real estate prices through the...
Paul Kasriel's picture
Paul Kasriel
09/08/2014 - 10:44
I subscribe to the tenet espoused by the late Professor Milton Friedman that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. When I speak of inflation, I include not only the behavior of prices of goods and services but also the behavior of the prices of assets.
Bill Fleckenstein's picture
Bill Fleckenstein
09/04/2014 - 13:58
Mario Draghi came as close to the “full Monty” as he possibly could by cutting interest rates 10 basis points to a measly five basis points, and increasing the negative deposit facility rate to -20 basis points. In addition, he promised to begin...
Cris Sheridan's picture
Cris Sheridan
09/02/2014 - 16:52
Financial stress rose significantly as the market peaked during the tech and housing bubbles. One popular measure of financial stress, the TED spread, however may no longer "work" at identifying market tops. For that, we must look at others. What...
FS Staff's picture
FS Staff
08/28/2014 - 18:05
Shadow banking is back in the news. First there are ongoing problems in China where bad loans outside of the traditional banking system are causing increasing financial strain. Then, here in the U.S., regulators are also becoming more...
Tom McClellan's picture
Tom McClellan
08/28/2014 - 10:17
Back in 2011, I wrote about Why Even Fundamental Analysts Should Watch A-D Line, noting that the NYSE A-D Line is very strongly correlated to corporate profits. But because the A-D Line can be calculated each day in real time...
Thomas J Smith CFA's picture
Thomas J Smith CFA
08/26/2014 - 13:53
The first decade of this century was certainly interesting. We kicked it off with a massive bubble and, as usual, were told “this time is different.” The Internet was changing things and so stocks were valued by page reads or eye balls or some other...