Market Observations on the Economy

FS Staff's picture
FS Staff
04/26/2016 - 22:22
In Wednesday's podcast, Chris Puplava provides a comprehensive update on PFS Group's economic outlook for the US by explaining the message coming from each of the 15 charts below. Many of these forward-looking indicators are regularly discussed in...
FS Staff's picture
FS Staff
04/21/2016 - 08:57
Traditionally, economics has defined money purely as a store of value, a neutral medium of exchange. Now, though, some are finding reasons to throw that definition out and start from a different background founded in systems science...
Urban Carmel's picture
Urban Carmel
04/20/2016 - 10:47
SPY made a new all-time high on Tuesday despite falling margin debt, the end of QE, negative household fund flows, flat profit growth and a host of other reasons. In other words, exactly as a rationale and objective investor...
Chris Puplava's picture
Chris Puplava
04/18/2016 - 12:10
The most recent consumer sentiment reading came in below expectations and shows a continued decline from its 2015 high. In this piece, we show the long-term behavior of consumer sentiment as a gauge for US recessions, its relationship to P/E...
Chris Puplava's picture
Chris Puplava
04/15/2016 - 09:57
Corporate profitability has been a reliable early warning indicator of a coming recession and bull market top. According to the April 4th quarterly review by Strategas Research Partners, the S&P 500 peaks on average 7 quarters after corporate...
Doug Short's picture
Doug Short
04/14/2016 - 08:31
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to...
FS Staff's picture
FS Staff
04/13/2016 - 16:30
Das maintains that a world without growth is not necessarily a problem—the problem is with the expectations of people who expect to get richer from the current economic model, or who otherwise depend upon permanent high levels of growth in some way...
FS Staff's picture
FS Staff
04/12/2016 - 16:31
The outlook by small businesses continues to deteriorate. When looking at the charts, it does appear that recession risks are on the rise. Consider Small Business Optimism Drops to a New Two Year Low: "For a broader perspective, the Index has turned...
FS Staff's picture
FS Staff
04/08/2016 - 16:52
After hitting a new record high last year, mergers and acquisitions fell sharply for the first quarter of 2016. M&A activity tends to follow the movements of the stock market, peaking and troughing with the share prices of companies collectively...
FS Staff's picture
FS Staff
04/08/2016 - 15:18
Though we are not expecting the US to be entering a recession currently, it is clear that the risk of one has increased meaningfully since last year. In the beginning of 2015, our recession model was showing a very low (1-2%) risk of recession. With...

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