Market Observations on the Economy
28 Dec 2012
While short leading and coincident economic data is still encouraging, various employment leading indicators suggest the U.S. economy may hit a rough patch in Q1 as employment growth looks set to stall.
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27 Dec 2012
The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through December 13. The 65.1 reading was well off the consensus estimate of 70.0 reported by Briefing.com. Today's number is a steep decline...
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18 Dec 2012
During the summer of this year I penned a discussion suggesting that we all watch durable goods orders (ex aircraft and defense spending) closely for clues as to how businesses were assessing and preparing for the Fiscal Cliff.
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10 Dec 2012
The end of this week marks the beginning of vacation for the movers and shakers in DC. Historically whenever there has been a major issue that Congress has to iron out, by the end of the year it has been taken care of, on average, 16 days prior...
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4 Dec 2012
Over the last few months, jitters have gripped investors as the stock market has become a bit volatile on the downside. The last peak in stock prices came almost immediately after the Federal Reserve announced Quantitative Easing III in September.
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30 Nov 2012
When making a call that has certain investment implications, getting the timing right is just as important as the overall trend. Quite often, investors view the world as half full or half empty, bullish or bearish, and seek out the data points...
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9 Nov 2012
The Reinhart & Rogoff “BANG” moment is defined when confidence in a government collapses. No one can predict when that moment happens as bubbles can often go on longer than most would conceive possible, but when confidence is lost things unravel...
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6 Nov 2012
A while back I penned an article that pointed out the US was experiencing the weakest service sector recovery cycle since the 1940’s at least. Important why? Simple enough, the bulk of modern day US GDP is driven by the service sector, especially...
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2 Nov 2012
While the issue of the US fiscal cliff will certainly impact the economy in 2013, there are already trends in place that suggest Q1 2013 may show some turbulence regardless of political gridlock.
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26 Oct 2012
In what has been one of the greatest signs of economic and financial hubris over the last quarter century was the argument that the business cycle had been conquered by central bankers and the modern economy. The idea that recessions were a thing of...
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