Financial Sense Newshour on the Economy
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: The Petro Business Cycle Equals The New Normal
The Price of Oil Is Impacting Monetary Policy
18 May 2013
In this segment of the Big Picture, Jim looks at how the price of oil has affected the economy and growth over the past three years, and how his concept of the Petro Business Cycle looks like it will be the “New Normal” in the years ahead. He also references recent interviews with oil experts Dr. Robert Hirsch and Dr. Oliver Inderwildi who concurred with his analysis on the Petro Business Cycle. Jim also answers your Q-calls in this segment of the program.
Rick Santelli: Hold Onto Your Wallet - The Entitlement Society Now Being Adopted as US Economic Policy
Austerity is the worst word in the English language for politicians
17 May 2013
Jim welcomes back Rick Santelli, On-Air Editor at CNBC and veteran trader and financial executive. Rick refers to current central bank policies as a world-wide “money fest”, given by the Central Banking Country Club. Rick sees the US adopting the “entitlement society” as current economic policy, which he asserts has never worked globally. He advises taxpayers to hold onto their wallets. Taxes will be going higher to pay for ever increasing government spending.
Dr. Oliver Inderwildi: Oil Price Volatility – A Fundamental Barrier to Economic Growth
There is no energy silver bullet
16 May 2013
Jim is pleased to welcome back Dr. Oliver Inderwildi PhD, Research Fellow at Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, UK. Dr. Inderwildi speaks to the high degree of oil price volatility over the past four decades, and its damaging and destabilizing effects on the global macro-economy. He discusses the main drivers of oil price volatility and how it has influenced both the level of inflation and the level of unemployment within economies affected by it. Dr. Inderwildi notes while there is no energy “silver bullet”, he discusses economic policies that could help prevent or minimize oil price volatility.
Steve Forbes: The Federal Reserve Leadership Has No Idea What They’re Doing
A VAT tax is coming unless we change our politicians
15 May 2013
Jim is pleased to welcome back Steve Forbes, Chairman, CEO, and Editor in Chief at Forbes Media and an internationally respected authority in the worlds of economics, finance, and corporate leadership. They cover a number of issues, including the recent plunge in gold, the Fed’s manipulation of the economy and the potential for future inflation, and the government’s relentless search for more revenue to raise federal spending. Mr. Forbes believes there is a determination in Washington to increase taxes on wealth, following the French model.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: The Next Rotation - Unloved, Unappreciated and Undervalued
Also on the Big Picture: On The Record - with Jim and John
4 May 2013
In the first Big Picture topic this week, Jim looks at the next stock market rotation. He believes it will focus on the energy, technology and materials sectors, all of which are currently unloved, unappreciated and undervalued. The next topic will be the monthly conversation, On The Record, where John asks Jim questions of timely and topical importance. Some of the topics covered include why Jim is optimistic on stocks, why you don’t want to store your bullion at a Wall Street bank, what distinguishes Jim’s practice from others in the industry, and why QE will end badly.
Neil Irwin – The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire
The extraordinary power of central bankers and how they used it during the great financial crisis
1 May 2013
Jim welcomes author and Washington Post columnist Neil Irwin to discuss his new book, “The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire”. The book focuses on the world’s most powerful men never elected to public office; Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve, Mervyn King of the Bank of England, and Jean-Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank. Mr. Irwin initially looks at the origins of central banking and then takes the reader into the Great Financial Crisis and its aftermath with the story of these three men and the extraordinary power they have over our collective fate, and that of the global economy.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: A Soft Patch Ahead - LEI’s Rolling Over
Also on the Big Picture: Another Government Manufactured Crisis
27 Apr 2013
In this week’s first Big Picture topic, Jim sees another soft patch ahead for the economy, as the Leading Economic Indicators are starting to roll over, anticipating a slowdown ahead. In his next topic, “Another Government Manufactured Crisis” Jim looks at the Air Traffic Controller mess that the FAA claims is a result of Sequestration. As is frequently the case in governmental actions, common sense seems to be in short supply. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.
Dwaine Van Vuuren: No Recession in Sight for the US
Less of a possibility of a Summer Swoon than in previous years
17 Apr 2013
Jim welcomes Dwaine Van Vuuren, CEO at Recession Alert in South Africa. Dwaine is a full-time trader specializing in real-time recession dating models. According to his models and index, Dwaine sees no recession in sight for the US. His long leading growth index shows moderate expansion ahead, and his investment models say to stay 100% invested a present. Of the ten models Dwaine follows, only two have any warning of future slowing.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Budget Games - The Real Truth Behind Washington’s Budget Process
Newspeak Terms - The Main Stream Media as Orwellian Mouthpiece
13 Apr 2013
Jim’s Big Picture topic this segment focuses on the recent budget “negotiations” going on in Washington. Jim pulls back the curtain on Washington’s budget games and gives his perspective on the current budget process. Jim sees it as 21st century feudalism, as budgetary policies favor big government and big business over small business, which has always been the engine for job creation. He also takes the main stream media to task for allowing Washington to use “Orwellian Newspeak” to describe the budgetary process. Jim will also answer your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.
Ramesh Ponnuru On How To Make America a Global Tax Haven
US Tax Code Favors Outsourcing of Production Overseas
11 Apr 2013
Jim welcomes Ramesh Ponnuru, Bloomberg columnist and visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Ramesh discusses an article he wrote about a proposal from US Congressman Devin Nunes to incentivize American and foreign business to invest in the US through a new approach Nunes calls a “business consumption tax”. It would treat all businesses the same, and instead of taxing their income, it would tax their cash flow.
Barry Ritholtz: Most Economic Crises Are Overblown- Driven by the Media and Washington
Long-term secular trend signals higher corporate productivity but less jobs in the future
10 Apr 2013
Jim welcomes back Barry Ritholtz, CEO and Director of Equity Research at Fusion IQ, an online quantitative research firm. Barry discusses how the many economic “crises” today are overblown and essentially driven by the media and Washington. Barry sees the vast majority of “news” today as simply gossip. As to stocks, Barry believes they are not as cheap as 3 years ago, but still reasonably priced. He much prefers the dividend theme to stock buy-backs by corporations. Barry also discussed a long term secular trend in demographic changes that will be a negative for employment longer term, as increasingly more productive companies need fewer workers to stay profitable.
Technician Louise Yamada: Short-Term Consolidation Upon Us; Markets Ready For a Pause
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities and Jim Puplava on Fixed Income
6 Apr 2013
Jim is pleased to welcome noted technician Louise Yamada CMT, Managing Director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors. Louise sees a short-term consolidation ahead, and thinks the markets are ready for a pause (click here for charts). She sees a 5-10% decline as not out of line. She admits monetary policy by the Fed is a big factor in today’s stock market. On gold, Louise believes the technical factors don’t look good at the present, with distribution taking place. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend covers commodities, and Jim Puplava has this week’s Fixed Income Report, sitting in for Rob Bernard.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Wash, Rinse and Repeat- That Was Then, This Is Now
Also, “Has The Glitter Faded? Why Gold Prices Can Still Go Higher”
6 Apr 2013
In this week’s first Big Picture topic “Wash, Rinse and Repeat – that was then, this is now” Jim looks at a repeat of the Petro Business Cycle pattern for the fourth year in a row. The familiar economic scenario features a strong start to the year, then the LEI’s roll over and the economy starts to slow, which is followed by more Federal Reserve stimulus, which leads to a strong finish to the year. Wash, rinse and repeat. The next topic, “Has the glitter faded? Why gold prices can go higher” is in response to the weak precious metals market. Jim continues his thesis that you don’t need a Doomsday scenario to see rising gold prices in the future. This topic also leads into Jim’s in-depth conversation with John Kaiser on gold in the next segment of the program. Jim also answers some of your Q-calls in this segment.
Professor Steve Hanke: Better Growth but Higher Inflation in the Second Half of 2013
How the value of the dollar influences inflation
5 Apr 2013
Jim welcomes Professor Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. Professor Hanke is also a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C. Jim and Professor Hanke discuss his recent article “Hyperinflation? No. Inflation? Yes.” He sees better growth ahead in the second half, perhaps as high as 3%, but also growing inflation as well. Professor Hanke notes that the US has had periods of high inflation in its history, including the Civil War, but never hyperinflation. He does not believe we will see it in the US in the foreseeable future.
Technician David Nicoski: Transports Confirming Uptrend; No Sign of a Top
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income
30 Mar 2013
Jim welcomes back David Nicoski CMT, Director of Research at Vermilion Technical Research LLC. David sees no sign of a top, with financials, energy and industrials doing very well and the transports confirming the uptrend. He believes that blue chip stocks are still cheap, and US economic growth is right now the best on the planet. Also, Ryan Puplava has this week’s market update, Erik Townsend and Jim discuss commodities, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Jim's Big Picture: The Fed's Exit Strategy: More Bad News For Cash Investors
Also, "Reasons For Baby Boomers to be Baby Gloomers in Retirement"
30 Mar 2013
In the first Big Picture topic this week, Jim looks at the Federal Reserve’s exit strategy from its extreme low interest rate policy. Jim lays out the reasons why rates will not likely rise anytime soon, and then only slowly. This is of course bad news for any investors in cash, hoping for higher interest rates. In the next Big Picture topic, Jim explains the many reasons why the retirement system is vastly different for the Baby Boomers than the World War II generation that preceded them. Taken in total, the evidence points to a gloomy retirement ahead for many Baby Boomers. Jim also answers some of your Q-Calls in this segment.
Doug Short: US Markets Have Room to Grow, Although Economy Still Vulnerable
Debunking the Alternate CPI As a Valid Metric
29 Mar 2013
Jim welcomes Doug Short, VP of Research at Advisor Perspectives. Doug sees the US markets as having room to grow and are above trend. He also discusses the Alternate CPI statistics, which Doug believes do not add up, and are out of sync with reality. Given the alternate CPI inflation levels, Doug notes that the current S&P 500 would be considerably more undervalued than in 1982. However, he notes that it still feels like a recession, since comsumer income has not kept up with inflation. Median household income is down 8.4% since 2000. This is among the reasons that many investors are scared, and remaining on the sidelines.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: The Confidence Game- How Central Banks Manage the Economy and Inflationary Expectations
Also, “Security Analysis by Benjamin Graham- That Was Then, This Is Now”
16 Mar 2013
Jim discusses two more Big Picture topics in this segment. In the first, “The Confidence Game”, Jim looks at the way central banks manage economies and control expectations of inflation. The next topic, “Security Analysis by Benjamin Graham- That was then, this is now”, refers to Benjamin Graham’s famous book “Security Analysis” written in 1934 with David Dodd. Graham talks about building a “margin of safety” when buying stocks. Jim looks at the similarities and differences from the 1930’s to the realities of today, and sees that a big cushion of safety is still very important.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Are We In A Recession?
Also, “What if They Held a Bull Market and Nobody Came?”
9 Mar 2013
In this segment, Jim’s first topic is “Are we in a Recession?” Jim discusses a recent ECRI report that says yes, but Jim and The PFS Group say no, at least not yet. Jim notes that 60% of the leading economic indicators are still positive. Jim’s next topic is “What if they held a Bull Market and nobody came?” Jim notes that this past week set a record for the lowest participation rate from individual investors. Jim looks at valuations and notes that the P/E ratios on stocks have come down substantially since 2000, although many blue chip stocks have not moved substantially in price. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this segment.
Bud Conrad: The US Government Has Distorted the Economy and Impoverished its Citizens
The Federal Reserve has enabled the Government’s runaway spending, wars and political favors
6 Mar 2013
Jim welcomes back Bud Conrad, Chief Economist at Casey Research. Bud lays out his case that federal government policies have distorted the economy, impoverished the middle class and greatly expanded the size of the federal bureaucracy. Bud also discusses how much longer the government can continue these policies, and what is the most likely endgame for a country with way too much debt.