Financial Sense Newshour on the Economy

Jim is pleased to welcome Rick Sharga, Executive Vice President at Carrington Mortgage Holdings, LLC. Rick is of the country's most frequently-quoted sources on foreclosure, mortgage and real estate trends and has appeared on NBC Nightly News, CNN, CBS, ABC World News, CNBC, FOX and NPR. Rick believes we are close to a peak in the distressed mortgage market, and it should start to get better. He does not see signs of a housing bubble, as lenders are still restrictive, builders are cautious, and new home inventory is at its lowest level in three decades. Rick sees a broad real estate recovery underway, but prices are only back to where they were a decade ago.

In this segment of the Big Picture Jim discusses “The Drill”, where he and the portfolio team discuss the LEIs, the markets and where things are headed. They look at the various segments of the market and economy and discuss where to invest given the current conditions as well as leading economic trends. In the next Big Picture topic, “Fish Talk” Jim takes a brief look at how he has changed his diet and improved his overall health using elements of the Paleo Diet and vegetarian-based nutritional plans. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this hour of the program.

In his first Big Picture topic this week, “A Correction, Rotation, and then a Melt-Up” Jim looks at the market for the second half of 2013. Jim believes we will see a short and shallow correction, followed by a rotation into cyclical stocks as the Reflation Trade plays catch-up in the second half. The “Melt-Up” might occur late in the year if bonds start to sell off and cash floods into stocks from the bond market. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.

Jim is pleased to welcome back Barry Bannister CFA, Managing Director at Stifel Nicolaus. Barry characterizes the first half of 2013 as recovery from a deflationary shock, with defensive stocks outperforming. He sees the second half of the year as a return of the “reflation trade”, with an emphasis on the energy, materials, industrials and technology sectors. Barry also discusses the many parallels between the depression-era policies of 1932-1937 and the current economic policies from 2009 -2013. He sees politicians repeating many of the same policy mistakes, and believes if the economy falters, it will be policy-driven, not from the economic fundamentals. 

In this segment of the Big Picture, Jim looks at how the price of oil has affected the economy and growth over the past three years, and how his concept of the Petro Business Cycle looks like it will be the “New Normal” in the years ahead. He also references recent interviews with oil experts Dr. Robert Hirsch and Dr. Oliver Inderwildi who concurred with his analysis on the Petro Business Cycle. Jim also answers your Q-calls in this segment of the program.

Jim is pleased to welcome back Dr. Oliver Inderwildi PhD, Research Fellow at Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, UK. Dr. Inderwildi speaks to the high degree of oil price volatility over the past four decades, and its damaging and destabilizing effects on the global macro-economy. He discusses the main drivers of oil price volatility and how it has influenced both the level of inflation and the level of unemployment within economies affected by it. Dr. Inderwildi notes while there is no energy “silver bullet”, he discusses economic policies that could help prevent or minimize oil price volatility.

In the first Big Picture topic this week, Jim looks at the next stock market rotation. He believes it will focus on the energy, technology and materials sectors, all of which are currently unloved, unappreciated and undervalued. The next topic will be the monthly conversation, On The Record, where John asks Jim questions of timely and topical importance. Some of the topics covered include why Jim is optimistic on stocks, why you don’t want to store your bullion at a Wall Street bank, what distinguishes Jim’s practice from others in the industry, and why QE will end badly.

In this week’s first Big Picture topic, Jim sees another soft patch ahead for the economy, as the Leading Economic Indicators are starting to roll over, anticipating a slowdown ahead. In his next topic, “Another Government Manufactured Crisis” Jim looks at the Air Traffic Controller mess that the FAA claims is a result of Sequestration. As is frequently the case in governmental actions, common sense seems to be in short supply. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.

Jim’s Big Picture topic this segment focuses on the recent budget “negotiations” going on in Washington. Jim pulls back the curtain on Washington’s budget games and gives his perspective on the current budget process. Jim sees it as 21^st century feudalism, as budgetary policies favor big government and big business over small business, which has always been the engine for job creation. He also takes the main stream media to task for allowing Washington to use “Orwellian Newspeak” to describe the budgetary process. Jim will also answer your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.