Financial Sense Newshour on the Economy
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Tax Hikes + Sequester = Economic Slowdown
Also on the Big Picture: Different Times Call for Different Strategies
15 Jun 2013
In this segment of the Big Picture, Jim discusses a recent San Francisco Federal Reserve Survey that indicates taxes are rising faster than economic growth. His topic, “Tax Hikes + Sequester = Economic Slowdown” discusses results of the survey and that the vast majority (90%) of the current economic slowdown is attributable to increases in taxes, not spending cuts. In his next Big Picture topic, “Different Times Call for Different Strategies”, Jim discusses how Fed policy has turned the market upside-down in recent years, and how “pie chart” strategies will no longer work. Those looking for predictable yield strategies will no longer be able to just plug money into bond funds and forget about them. Jim looks at alternative strategies for these “different times”.
Rick Sharga: We Are Nowhere Near a Real Estate Bubble
There is a lack of new home inventory – at lowest levels in three decades
13 Jun 2013
Jim is pleased to welcome Rick Sharga, Executive Vice President at Carrington Mortgage Holdings, LLC. Rick is of the country's most frequently-quoted sources on foreclosure, mortgage and real estate trends and has appeared on NBC Nightly News, CNN, CBS, ABC World News, CNBC, FOX and NPR. Rick believes we are close to a peak in the distressed mortgage market, and it should start to get better. He does not see signs of a housing bubble, as lenders are still restrictive, builders are cautious, and new home inventory is at its lowest level in three decades. Rick sees a broad real estate recovery underway, but prices are only back to where they were a decade ago.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Déjà vu - That Was Then, This Is Now
Political and economic parallels between the 1960’s-1970’s and today
1 Jun 2013
In this week’s first Big Picture topic, Jim takes an in-depth looks at the many economic and political similarities between today and what occurred during the late 1960’s through the 1970’s. Jim looks at interest rates and inflation, the price of gold, Middle East turmoil, political scandals, tax policy, the regulatory environment, and movement in the markets.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: The Drill - The Economy, The Markets, and Where to Invest
Also on the Big Picture: Fish Talk - Jim discusses his improved health through dietary changes
1 Jun 2013
In this segment of the Big Picture Jim discusses “The Drill”, where he and the portfolio team discuss the LEIs, the markets and where things are headed. They look at the various segments of the market and economy and discuss where to invest given the current conditions as well as leading economic trends. In the next Big Picture topic, “Fish Talk” Jim takes a brief look at how he has changed his diet and improved his overall health using elements of the Paleo Diet and vegetarian-based nutritional plans. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this hour of the program.
Technician Richard Dickson: Major Trend Gauges Are All Positive
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income
25 May 2013
Jim welcomes back Richard Dickson, Chief Market Analyst at Lowry Research. Richard notes that the major trend gauges are all positive at present. He sees a similarity in the markets to 1995, when there were no real corrections before the next advance. He believes the “Great Rotation” from bonds to stocks has not yet begun, but the “Fat Lady is warming up to start singing”, as evidenced by recent weakness in utilities. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend covers Commodities, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: A Correction, Rotation, and Then a Melt-Up
Second half of 2013 all about rotation and cyclicality
25 May 2013
In his first Big Picture topic this week, “A Correction, Rotation, and then a Melt-Up” Jim looks at the market for the second half of 2013. Jim believes we will see a short and shallow correction, followed by a rotation into cyclical stocks as the Reflation Trade plays catch-up in the second half. The “Melt-Up” might occur late in the year if bonds start to sell off and cash floods into stocks from the bond market. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: What the Fed Said, and What It Really Means
Also on the Big Picture: The risk of double taxation
25 May 2013
Jim’s next Big Picture topic centers on Ben Bernanke’s testimony on Capitol Hill this week. His remarks seemed to cause some confusion in the financial markets. Bernanke said premature tightening would carry a substantial risk of ending the economic recovery, but didn’t really provide much detail on when or if the Fed would begin to withdraw stimulus. Jim reads the tea leaves and gives his analysis of the Fed’s exit strategy. In the next topic, “The Risk of Double Taxation” Jim discusses the latest Congressional hunt for more tax revenue, this time focusing on Apple and its hoard of overseas cash. Jim looks at the very high corporate tax rates in the US, and the valid reasons corporations are reluctant to repatriate overseas cash.
Barry Bannister: The Biggest Risk to the Economy Is Government Policy, Not Fundamentals
The reflation trade will return in the second half of 2013
23 May 2013
Jim is pleased to welcome back Barry Bannister CFA, Managing Director at Stifel Nicolaus. Barry characterizes the first half of 2013 as recovery from a deflationary shock, with defensive stocks outperforming. He sees the second half of the year as a return of the “reflation trade”, with an emphasis on the energy, materials, industrials and technology sectors. Barry also discusses the many parallels between the depression-era policies of 1932-1937 and the current economic policies from 2009 -2013. He sees politicians repeating many of the same policy mistakes, and believes if the economy falters, it will be policy-driven, not from the economic fundamentals.
Russell Napier: Emerging Markets Faltering, Foretelling Deflation Ahead
QE Is Keeping the Patient Alive, But Not Healthy
21 May 2013
Jim welcomes back Russell Napier, Consultant with CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. Russell makes the case that faltering economic growth in the emerging markets, weaker commodity prices, a falling yen and strengthening dollar are warning signs of a deflationary shock ahead. Russell believes that the rally in developed-world equities will not last much longer as emerging market growth slows. He is bearish on gold shorter term, but bullish longer-term as both structural and cyclical forces turn in gold’s favor. Russell sees the current falling gold price as a sign that the global reflation is failing and we are nearing a deflationary shock.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: The Petro Business Cycle Equals The New Normal
The Price of Oil Is Impacting Monetary Policy
18 May 2013
In this segment of the Big Picture, Jim looks at how the price of oil has affected the economy and growth over the past three years, and how his concept of the Petro Business Cycle looks like it will be the “New Normal” in the years ahead. He also references recent interviews with oil experts Dr. Robert Hirsch and Dr. Oliver Inderwildi who concurred with his analysis on the Petro Business Cycle. Jim also answers your Q-calls in this segment of the program.
Rick Santelli: Hold Onto Your Wallet - The Entitlement Society Now Being Adopted as US Economic Policy
Austerity is the worst word in the English language for politicians
17 May 2013
Jim welcomes back Rick Santelli, On-Air Editor at CNBC and veteran trader and financial executive. Rick refers to current central bank policies as a world-wide “money fest”, given by the Central Banking Country Club. Rick sees the US adopting the “entitlement society” as current economic policy, which he asserts has never worked globally. He advises taxpayers to hold onto their wallets. Taxes will be going higher to pay for ever increasing government spending.
Dr. Oliver Inderwildi: Oil Price Volatility – A Fundamental Barrier to Economic Growth
There is no energy silver bullet
16 May 2013
Jim is pleased to welcome back Dr. Oliver Inderwildi PhD, Research Fellow at Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, UK. Dr. Inderwildi speaks to the high degree of oil price volatility over the past four decades, and its damaging and destabilizing effects on the global macro-economy. He discusses the main drivers of oil price volatility and how it has influenced both the level of inflation and the level of unemployment within economies affected by it. Dr. Inderwildi notes while there is no energy “silver bullet”, he discusses economic policies that could help prevent or minimize oil price volatility.
Steve Forbes: The Federal Reserve Leadership Has No Idea What They’re Doing
A VAT tax is coming unless we change our politicians
15 May 2013
Jim is pleased to welcome back Steve Forbes, Chairman, CEO, and Editor in Chief at Forbes Media and an internationally respected authority in the worlds of economics, finance, and corporate leadership. They cover a number of issues, including the recent plunge in gold, the Fed’s manipulation of the economy and the potential for future inflation, and the government’s relentless search for more revenue to raise federal spending. Mr. Forbes believes there is a determination in Washington to increase taxes on wealth, following the French model.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: The Next Rotation - Unloved, Unappreciated and Undervalued
Also on the Big Picture: On The Record - with Jim and John
4 May 2013
In the first Big Picture topic this week, Jim looks at the next stock market rotation. He believes it will focus on the energy, technology and materials sectors, all of which are currently unloved, unappreciated and undervalued. The next topic will be the monthly conversation, On The Record, where John asks Jim questions of timely and topical importance. Some of the topics covered include why Jim is optimistic on stocks, why you don’t want to store your bullion at a Wall Street bank, what distinguishes Jim’s practice from others in the industry, and why QE will end badly.
Neil Irwin – The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire
The extraordinary power of central bankers and how they used it during the great financial crisis
1 May 2013
Jim welcomes author and Washington Post columnist Neil Irwin to discuss his new book, “The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire”. The book focuses on the world’s most powerful men never elected to public office; Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve, Mervyn King of the Bank of England, and Jean-Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank. Mr. Irwin initially looks at the origins of central banking and then takes the reader into the Great Financial Crisis and its aftermath with the story of these three men and the extraordinary power they have over our collective fate, and that of the global economy.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: A Soft Patch Ahead - LEI’s Rolling Over
Also on the Big Picture: Another Government Manufactured Crisis
27 Apr 2013
In this week’s first Big Picture topic, Jim sees another soft patch ahead for the economy, as the Leading Economic Indicators are starting to roll over, anticipating a slowdown ahead. In his next topic, “Another Government Manufactured Crisis” Jim looks at the Air Traffic Controller mess that the FAA claims is a result of Sequestration. As is frequently the case in governmental actions, common sense seems to be in short supply. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.
Dwaine Van Vuuren: No Recession in Sight for the US
Less of a possibility of a Summer Swoon than in previous years
17 Apr 2013
Jim welcomes Dwaine Van Vuuren, CEO at Recession Alert in South Africa. Dwaine is a full-time trader specializing in real-time recession dating models. According to his models and index, Dwaine sees no recession in sight for the US. His long leading growth index shows moderate expansion ahead, and his investment models say to stay 100% invested a present. Of the ten models Dwaine follows, only two have any warning of future slowing.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Budget Games - The Real Truth Behind Washington’s Budget Process
Newspeak Terms - The Main Stream Media as Orwellian Mouthpiece
13 Apr 2013
Jim’s Big Picture topic this segment focuses on the recent budget “negotiations” going on in Washington. Jim pulls back the curtain on Washington’s budget games and gives his perspective on the current budget process. Jim sees it as 21st century feudalism, as budgetary policies favor big government and big business over small business, which has always been the engine for job creation. He also takes the main stream media to task for allowing Washington to use “Orwellian Newspeak” to describe the budgetary process. Jim will also answer your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.
Ramesh Ponnuru On How To Make America a Global Tax Haven
US Tax Code Favors Outsourcing of Production Overseas
11 Apr 2013
Jim welcomes Ramesh Ponnuru, Bloomberg columnist and visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Ramesh discusses an article he wrote about a proposal from US Congressman Devin Nunes to incentivize American and foreign business to invest in the US through a new approach Nunes calls a “business consumption tax”. It would treat all businesses the same, and instead of taxing their income, it would tax their cash flow.
Barry Ritholtz: Most Economic Crises Are Overblown- Driven by the Media and Washington
Long-term secular trend signals higher corporate productivity but less jobs in the future
10 Apr 2013
Jim welcomes back Barry Ritholtz, CEO and Director of Equity Research at Fusion IQ, an online quantitative research firm. Barry discusses how the many economic “crises” today are overblown and essentially driven by the media and Washington. Barry sees the vast majority of “news” today as simply gossip. As to stocks, Barry believes they are not as cheap as 3 years ago, but still reasonably priced. He much prefers the dividend theme to stock buy-backs by corporations. Barry also discussed a long term secular trend in demographic changes that will be a negative for employment longer term, as increasingly more productive companies need fewer workers to stay profitable.