Newshour on Global/International Issues

Jim welcomes Joseph Dancy, Manager LSGI Venture Fund, and Professor at SMU Cox School of Business in Texas. Joe sees a discrepancy between energy company performance and share prices, as most major oil producers have underperformed the S&P 500 Index. Joe notes that the global demand for oil is rising relentlessly through industrialization and growth in China, India and other developing nations. With record oil company revenues and growing global demand likely to continue, Joe sees a much more positive performance for the energy sector looking ahead.

Jim welcomes author and Washington Post columnist Neil Irwin to discuss his new book, “The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire”. The book focuses on the world’s most powerful men never elected to public office; Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve, Mervyn King of the Bank of England, and Jean-Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank. Mr. Irwin initially looks at the origins of central banking and then takes the reader into the Great Financial Crisis and its aftermath with the story of these three men and the extraordinary power they have over our collective fate, and that of the global economy.

Jim is pleased to welcome back Brian Pretti CFA, Managing Editor at ContraryInvestor.com. Brian says to brace yourself for the flight of global capital coming into the US later this year. For now, all roads lead to the dollar. Brian believes the first wave will come from capital fleeing both Europe and Asia. Brian and Jim also discuss the new Japanese monetary policy and how this will unleash a flood of cheap money on the globe. This will encourage sophisticated investors to borrow in Japan, invest in the US, and pay back the loan in cheaper Yen, increasing the return substantially.

Jim welcomes Simon Mikhailovich, Co-Founder of Eidesis Capital LLC in New York City. Jim and Simon cover a number of topics, including gold, why people should own it, and the difference between paper and physical gold. Simon also discusses the safety of your bank accounts in the future as governments look at the “Cyprus Model”, including the US. Simon talks about the coming “wealth taxes” in Europe, as governments desperately search for revenue amidst weakening economies. Simon  calls gold “the most under-owned asset class in the world” and believes the real bull market in gold has not yet begun.

Jim welcomes Ramesh Ponnuru, Bloomberg columnist and visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Ramesh discusses an article he wrote about a proposal from US Congressman Devin Nunes to incentivize American and foreign business to invest in the US through a new approach Nunes calls a “business consumption tax”. It would treat all businesses the same, and instead of taxing their income, it would tax their cash flow.

Jim is pleased to welcome back Jeffrey Saut, Managing Director of Research at Raymond James Financial. Jeff believes we have started a new secular bull market, but calls the stock market advance the “most hated rally in half a century”. Jeff notes that the support for the rally comes from a number of factors including central bank stimulus, low interest rates, strength in housing and autos, and improvement in the employment picture. He also mentions that the world is currently underinvested in US equities. Jeff makes an interesting observation about Mexico, both in terms of its labor situation and railroad transportation to the US, calling it the “New China” for US markets.

In this week’s edition of the Big Picture, Erik Townsend and Ryan Puplava sit in for Jim and discuss three different topics. The first, “The Significance of Cyprus- US Dollar on the cusp of a surprise?” deals with the events in Cyprus in the context of helping to stregthen the US dollar. Combining this banking fiasco with central banking printing around the globe, the US dollar looks primed to stregthen, which most do not expect. They discuss the implications for stocks, gold and commodities if this were to happen. In the next Big Picture topic, “Triple Top or New Secular Bull Market?”, Erik and Ryan discuss the issue, and make distinctions between economic recovery and stock market strength. In the last topic, “Still Waiting for Armageddon?” Erik and Ryan look at those still waiting for a disaster in their “bunker”, and stress that no matter when, or if, the calamity arrives, investors need to have a financial plan in place and not be paralyzed by fear. They also discuss the possibility that there could be a bond market melt-down, but that stocks might benefit.

Jim welcomes William Black PhD, Professor of Economics and Law at University of Missouri-Kansas City School of Law. Professor Black sees an increasing trend of crony capitalism in world markets. He sees two primary reasons for the mess; regulatory neglect and competition from overseas exchanges with less stringent regulations. In terms of corruption, Black believes the current credit crisis is 70 times larger than the Savings & Loan Crisis. In the S&L crisis, Black notes that there were 30,000 criminal referrals, and 2,000 white collar criminals went to prison. In the current credit crisis, stemming from 2008, there have been zero criminal referrals and zero prosecutions. He sees the FBI as the only agency with any effectiveness in white collar crime, but they are woefully understaffed. 

Jim welcomes back Gail Tverberg to speak on energy, and they discuss her views on limits to oil supply limiting long-term economic growth. Gail believes the key issue is that global oil supply is not rising very quickly, no matter how much investment is made. Because of this “sinkhole” phenomenon, we are getting less and less back for every dollar invested; or declining energy return on energy invested. Gail argues that the ultimate impact for developed (OECD) countries will be a long-term contraction of their economies. The problem is that our current global financial system depends on long-term growth.