Newshour on Global/International Issues
John Kaiser: Gold Demand Hurt by Global Slowdown
Jim welcomes back John Kaiser, Founder at Kaiser Research Online. John discusses the gold industry and how gold demand has been hurt by the global slowdown in growth and prosperity. John believes the gold miners are in a trap, as they struggle to find cheap ounces in friendly jurisdictions. John also discusses the increasing desperation of bullion banks, and that they may not have the gold they claim to have. He believes the strengthening dollar has also hurt the resource sector.
Puru Saxena: China’s Real Estate Bubble Is a Disaster Waiting to Happen
Jim welcomes back Puru Saxena, Editor and Founder at Money Matters and Puru Saxena Limited in Hong Kong. Puru is very concerned about the real estate bubble still building in China. He notes there are “ghost cities” all over China and it will end very badly. Even prices in Hong Kong are out of control. Puru sees the most value currently in US real estate and stocks, and is his moving his investment assets to the US. He sees Europe as a mess, Japan as a mess, and China as the next major bubble to burst. Given those assessments, Puru believes the US is by far the best, and safest, place to invest in the current environment.
Felix Zulauf: Japan Will Be the Root Cause of the Next Global Crisis
Jim is pleased to welcome back Felix Zulauf, president of Zulauf Asset Management AG and Co-CIO of Vicenda Asset Management AG in Zug, Switzerland. Felix and Jim cover a wide range of global macro issues, including today’s deflationary environment versus the inflationary 1970’s, Japan as the likely catalyst of the next global crisis, why the bond market is in trouble, and that gold could decline before another buying opportunity. Felix also does not believe that the Fed will ease off its QE program in 2013.
Brian Pretti: QE Here to Stay in One Form or Another
Jim welcomes back Brian Pretti CFA, Managing Editor at ContraryInvestor.com. Brian sees Quantitative Easing in some form as here to stay. He doesn’t feel the Fed is able to “tap on the brakes” any longer. The new brakes are the “open-mouth committee”. Brian sees foreign capital coming into the US, buying real estate, stocks and bonds. He believes there is a risk of a market melt-up at the end of the year, with global capital flooding into the US to buy equities.
John Butler: Currency Wars - Is the US Covertly Intervening to Support the Dollar?
Jim welcomes back John Butler, Chief Investment Officer at Amphora Commodities Alpha Fund in London. John poses the question; might the US may be covertly intervening in the foreign exchange markets to support the US dollar? Because of the Federal Reserve’s QE policy, the pressure is building on the dollar. If foreigners dramatically accelerate their diversification out of dollars and into other currencies, and gold, the US would face a dilemma. The US could allow interest rates to rise to stabilize the dollar, triggering a recession, or it can continue to suppress interest rates but watch the dollar fall sharply, triggering far higher inflation and economic (and perhaps political) instability. John believes the US may take a third path, continuing to suppress interest rates through QE, but covertly intervening on foreign exchange markets to support the dollar. Desperate policymakers sometimes do desperate things.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Déjà vu - That Was Then, This Is Now
In this week’s first Big Picture topic, Jim takes an in-depth looks at the many economic and political similarities between today and what occurred during the late 1960’s through the 1970’s. Jim looks at interest rates and inflation, the price of gold, Middle East turmoil, political scandals, tax policy, the regulatory environment, and movement in the markets.
JKC de Courcy: China Lighting Matches in Asia as Japan Considers Rearming
Jim welcomes back JKC de Courcy, Chief Executive at Intelligence Research Ltd, publisher of Courcy’s Intelligence Brief out of London. Jim and JKC discuss a number of geopolitical hot spots, including Asia, Europe and the Middle East. One of the major stories is China’s push for regional hegemony in Asia. As China grows more aggressive and bellicose, Japan is considering a constitutional change to rearm and expand its military. As the US is re-deploying assets to Asia, Europe is pushing for military integration to fill the vacuum. In the Middle East, JKC sees the Iran/Israel conflict over nuclear weapons development coming to a head.
Adam Fergusson - When Money Dies: A Comparison Between 1920’s Weimar Germany and Today
Jim is pleased to welcome back Adam Fergusson, author of When Money Dies, written in 1975. Mr. Fergusson is also a former Member of the European Parliament, and has been a Special Adviser at the Foreign Office, and a consultant on European affairs for international industry and commerce. When Money Dies had been out of print for 30 years until recently; yet had never ceased to be quoted on both sides of the Atlantic. The book is well-known to financial commentators and has become something of a classic. Jim and Mr. Fergusson discuss the parallels and differnces between 1920’s Weimar Germany and today’s global financial system. He sees the potential for more inflation today, but not hyperinflation.
Technician Richard Dickson: Major Trend Gauges Are All Positive
Jim welcomes back Richard Dickson, Chief Market Analyst at Lowry Research. Richard notes that the major trend gauges are all positive at present. He sees a similarity in the markets to 1995, when there were no real corrections before the next advance. He believes the “Great Rotation” from bonds to stocks has not yet begun, but the “Fat Lady is warming up to start singing”, as evidenced by recent weakness in utilities. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend covers Commodities, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Michelle Caruso-Cabrera: Cyprus Was Treated Unfairly by the Euro Powers
Jim is pleased to welcome back Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, an award-winning financial television journalist working for CNBC. Michelle and Jim discuss her on-the-ground reporting from Cyprus during its financial crisis. She believes Cyprus was treated unfairly by the European powers, and didn’t receive the same treatment as Greece, which was kept afloat with massive bailouts. Michelle notes that Cyprus runs on its banking system, and Cyprus was treated as an off-shore tax haven, not a sovereign country. She also points out that Cyprus did not cut government spending, but raised taxes instead. Michelle also discusses the European economy and the chances of the Euro surviving longer term.
Joseph Dancy: Global Demand For Oil Is Growing Relentlessly
Jim welcomes Joseph Dancy, Manager LSGI Venture Fund, and Professor at SMU Cox School of Business in Texas. Joe sees a discrepancy between energy company performance and share prices, as most major oil producers have underperformed the S&P 500 Index. Joe notes that the global demand for oil is rising relentlessly through industrialization and growth in China, India and other developing nations. With record oil company revenues and growing global demand likely to continue, Joe sees a much more positive performance for the energy sector looking ahead.
Martin Armstrong: Washington Is Broke and Looking at More Ways to Tax Americans
Jim welcomes back Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics. Martin and Jim cover many important topics, including Washington’s need for more revenue, the future of the European Union, the current outlook for gold, the Cyprus banking situation, the pension system in the US, and how Congress is working hard to exempt itself from Obamacare. Martin also touches on economic trouble brewing in Europe, Japan and Argentina. As to the banking system, Martin advises to avoid large banks involved in proprietary trading and stay with the regional banks.
Neil Irwin – The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire
Jim welcomes author and Washington Post columnist Neil Irwin to discuss his new book, “The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire”. The book focuses on the world’s most powerful men never elected to public office; Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve, Mervyn King of the Bank of England, and Jean-Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank. Mr. Irwin initially looks at the origins of central banking and then takes the reader into the Great Financial Crisis and its aftermath with the story of these three men and the extraordinary power they have over our collective fate, and that of the global economy.
Dr. Robert Hirsch: Middle East Waking Up To Peak Oil Reality
Jim is pleased to welcome back Dr. Robert Hirsch, Senior Energy Advisor at Management Information Services Inc. and an authority on Peak Oil. Dr. Hirsch has just returned from an historic peak oil conference in Doha, Qatar, the first ever initiated by Gulf State oil producers. Dr. Hirsch believes there will be a “sea change” coming to the Middle East, once peak oil is reached. The timing of its arrival is difficult to predict, but it will likely be sooner than the global economy is prepared for. He makes the point that most people don’t understand that peak oil is a “liquid fuel problem”, and thus wind and solar technology will never solve the problem. Dr. Hirsch also sees the current projections of future US energy independence as “pure fiction”.
Brian Pretti: Global Capital Flight To The US Will Drive Next Melt-up In The Stock Market
Jim is pleased to welcome back Brian Pretti CFA, Managing Editor at ContraryInvestor.com. Brian says to brace yourself for the flight of global capital coming into the US later this year. For now, all roads lead to the dollar. Brian believes the first wave will come from capital fleeing both Europe and Asia. Brian and Jim also discuss the new Japanese monetary policy and how this will unleash a flood of cheap money on the globe. This will encourage sophisticated investors to borrow in Japan, invest in the US, and pay back the loan in cheaper Yen, increasing the return substantially.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Drop, Pop, And A Melt-Up In The Stock Market
In this segment of the Big Picture, Jim looks at two stock related topics. In “Drop, Pop and a Melt-up in the Stock Market”, Jim discusses the idea that the next stock market melt-up will be caused by the flight of global capital coming into the US from both Asia and Europe. In the next topic, “The Dividend Story keeps getting Better, Better and Better”, Jim looks at the reasons why to own dividend-paying equities, and the trend of growing dividend pay-outs in the first quarter of 2013. Jim will also answer your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.
Simon Mikhailovich: It’s 12 O’clock, Do You Know Where Your Gold Is?
Jim welcomes Simon Mikhailovich, Co-Founder of Eidesis Capital LLC in New York City. Jim and Simon cover a number of topics, including gold, why people should own it, and the difference between paper and physical gold. Simon also discusses the safety of your bank accounts in the future as governments look at the “Cyprus Model”, including the US. Simon talks about the coming “wealth taxes” in Europe, as governments desperately search for revenue amidst weakening economies. Simon calls gold “the most under-owned asset class in the world” and believes the real bull market in gold has not yet begun.
Grant Williams: Currency Wars Now Entering Their End Game
Jim is pleased to welcome back Grant Williams, Portfolio & Strategy Advisor at Vulpes Investment Management in Singapore, and author of the popular investment letter, “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…”. Grant discusses the recent policy change in Japan, which is now printing massive amounts of Yen to raise inflation and weaken the currency. Grant notes that it didn’t work in the 1930’s for Japan, and it won’t work this time. He does see a coming Asian currency war in response however. Grant also speaks in some detail about gold and gold equities. He believes the world is struggling with accepting gold as a currency. But Grant notes that at some point deficits matter and excessive money printing will eventually drive the price of gold significantly higher.
Ramesh Ponnuru On How To Make America a Global Tax Haven
Jim welcomes Ramesh Ponnuru, Bloomberg columnist and visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Ramesh discusses an article he wrote about a proposal from US Congressman Devin Nunes to incentivize American and foreign business to invest in the US through a new approach Nunes calls a “business consumption tax”. It would treat all businesses the same, and instead of taxing their income, it would tax their cash flow.
Axel Merk: The Downside of Currency Wars
Jim welcomes back Axel Merk, founder and portfolio manager at Merk Investments LLC. This week Axel discusses some of the downside of currency wars, including a loss of competitiveness in domestic economies, growing social unrest, and in extreme cases, war. Axel also sees the Eurozone as less capable of debasing its currency than other countries, which will ultimately strengthen the Euro. He sees gold in a transition phase, but believes that the US, Japan and the UK will drive gold prices higher eventually.