Financial Sense Newshour on the Markets
Technician Tracy Knudsen: No Signs of a Bear Market
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Jim Puplava on Fixed Income
Jim welcomes back Tracy Knudsen CMT, Senior Vice President & Senior Analyst at Lowry Research. Tracy tells Jim that she sees no major storm clouds of an approaching bear market. The lack of selling pressure or divergences indicate the bull market is still intact. Tracy currently likes the strength in the cyclical stocks, particularly in the Technology, Industrial and Consumer Discretionary sectors. She does advise to lighten up on the Utility sector. Also in this hour, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend discusses commodities, and Jim Puplava looks at bonds and interest rates.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Investor Sentiment - A Contrary Buy Signal
Investors Are Nervous, But Fundamentals Don’t Argue for a Bear Market
In the first topic on the Big Picture this week, Jim looks at the bearish sentiment among individual investors, and even institutional investors, and sees a contrary indicator. Bull markets always climb a “wall of worry” and investors are certainly worried these days, or at best, cautiously optimistic. Jim sees the fundamental picture for stocks as still supporting a bullish outlook, and he believes the negative sentiment constitutes a contrary buy signal. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Tax Hikes + Sequester = Economic Slowdown
Also on the Big Picture: Different Times Call for Different Strategies
In this segment of the Big Picture, Jim discusses a recent San Francisco Federal Reserve Survey that indicates taxes are rising faster than economic growth. His topic, “Tax Hikes + Sequester = Economic Slowdown” discusses results of the survey and that the vast majority (90%) of the current economic slowdown is attributable to increases in taxes, not spending cuts. In his next Big Picture topic, “Different Times Call for Different Strategies”, Jim discusses how Fed policy has turned the market upside-down in recent years, and how “pie chart” strategies will no longer work. Those looking for predictable yield strategies will no longer be able to just plug money into bond funds and forget about them. Jim looks at alternative strategies for these “different times”.
Felix Zulauf: Japan Will Be the Root Cause of the Next Global Crisis
Interest rates could rise because of defaults, not inflation
Jim is pleased to welcome back Felix Zulauf, president of Zulauf Asset Management AG and Co-CIO of Vicenda Asset Management AG in Zug, Switzerland. Felix and Jim cover a wide range of global macro issues, including today’s deflationary environment versus the inflationary 1970’s, Japan as the likely catalyst of the next global crisis, why the bond market is in trouble, and that gold could decline before another buying opportunity. Felix also does not believe that the Fed will ease off its QE program in 2013.
Harry Markopolos: No One Would Listen
The man who exposed Bernie Madoff and history’s greatest Ponzi scheme
Jim is pleased to welcome Harry Markopolos CFA, the man who blew the whistle on Bernie Madoff and the largest Ponzi scheme in history. His book is titled “No One Would Listen: A True Financial Thriller”. Harry discusses how both the SEC and the financial industry ignored his warnings of obvious fraud for years before it all came tumbling down in 2008. Harry tells a fascinating story of money, corruption and power, and how a massive financial fraud such as the Bernie Madoff case could happen again.
Brian Pretti: QE Here to Stay in One Form or Another
Day of reckoning coming - could surface first in Japan
Jim welcomes back Brian Pretti CFA, Managing Editor at ContraryInvestor.com. Brian sees Quantitative Easing in some form as here to stay. He doesn’t feel the Fed is able to “tap on the brakes” any longer. The new brakes are the “open-mouth committee”. Brian sees foreign capital coming into the US, buying real estate, stocks and bonds. He believes there is a risk of a market melt-up at the end of the year, with global capital flooding into the US to buy equities.
Technician Bert Dohmen: The Fed Is Using “Tapering Talk” As a Ploy to Cool Market Speculation
Also, Ryan Puplava With this week’s Market Wrap-Up and Erik Townsend With the Commodity Report
Jim welcomes back technician Bert Dohmen of Dohmen Capital Research Institute and publisher of The Wellington Letter. Bert believes all this talk about “tapering QE” is a ploy by the Fed to cool the speculative fever of the markets. He also notes that overwhelmingly bullish opinion in the early stages of a bull market is not a negative indicator because there is plenty of money still on the sidelines. The big question is, are we in the early stages, or is this bull market already four years old? Bert also sees any major problems likely to surface first in China. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-Up, and Erik Townsend has the Commodity Report.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Déjà vu – Revolt of the Money Wealth
Also on the Big Picture: Is the Run In Dividend Stocks Over?
In this week’s first Big Picture topic, “Déjà vu, Revolt of the Money Wealth”, Jim looks at the parallels between the 1970’s and today. He notes that the Fed was able to keep interest rates under control in the early to mid-1970’s even though inflation was building. In 1977 the bond investors started to revolt. Jim sees similarities today, and discusses when the “money wealth” will eventually revolt and start selling their bonds. In the next topic, “Is the Run in Dividend Stocks Over?” Jim notes that a pull-back is not unusual, especially given the overvaluation of sectors such as utilities. Jim believes the run in dividend-paying blue chip stocks is far from over.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: On The Record With Jim and John
Jim Answers a Wide Range of Investment Questions
In this month’s edition of “On the Record” Jim covers a broad array of investment questions, from gold and peak oil, to market corrections, interest rates and dividend stocks. Last but certainly not least, Jim answers your Q-Calls in this segment as well.
Michael Kantrowitz: We’re In the Very Early Innings of the Risk-On Trade
Capital is flowing into the US from Europe and Japan
Jim welcomes back Michael Kantrowitz CFA, now teaming with Francois Trahan at Cornerstone Macro in New York City. Michael’s expertise includes business-cycle forecasting the implications for financial markets including global asset allocation, sector positioning, and stock selection. Michael believes we have been back in the “risk-on” trade for over a month, and will likely be in the risk-on mode for the balance of the year. Cyclical sectors are now outperforming, and Michael believes the fuel behind this move is lower inflation. He sees capital flowing into the US from both Europe and Japan. This is helping provide the unusual situation of a stronger dollar and stronger stock market at the same time. The financial world is becoming less correlated than in recent years. Michael prefers the Financial, Technology and Industrial sectors as the best of the cyclical plays.
Technician Charles Nenner: Short-Term Cycles Are Topping - Most of the Gains Are in for the Year
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income
Jim welcomes back noted technician Charles Nenner of the Charles Nenner Research Center. Charles sees many of his short-term cycles topping, with other cycles topping over the summer. He believes most of the gains are already in for the year, and feels that the average investor is too optimistic at this stage of the market. Charles sees strength in the US dollar until mid-2014. He sees higher interest rates coming, and is very cautious on bonds. Also this hour, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-Up, Erik Townsend looks at commodities, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: The Drill - The Economy, The Markets, and Where to Invest
Also on the Big Picture: Fish Talk - Jim discusses his improved health through dietary changes
In this segment of the Big Picture Jim discusses “The Drill”, where he and the portfolio team discuss the LEIs, the markets and where things are headed. They look at the various segments of the market and economy and discuss where to invest given the current conditions as well as leading economic trends. In the next Big Picture topic, “Fish Talk” Jim takes a brief look at how he has changed his diet and improved his overall health using elements of the Paleo Diet and vegetarian-based nutritional plans. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this hour of the program.
Technician Richard Dickson: Major Trend Gauges Are All Positive
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income
Jim welcomes back Richard Dickson, Chief Market Analyst at Lowry Research. Richard notes that the major trend gauges are all positive at present. He sees a similarity in the markets to 1995, when there were no real corrections before the next advance. He believes the “Great Rotation” from bonds to stocks has not yet begun, but the “Fat Lady is warming up to start singing”, as evidenced by recent weakness in utilities. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend covers Commodities, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: A Correction, Rotation, and Then a Melt-Up
Second half of 2013 all about rotation and cyclicality
In his first Big Picture topic this week, “A Correction, Rotation, and then a Melt-Up” Jim looks at the market for the second half of 2013. Jim believes we will see a short and shallow correction, followed by a rotation into cyclical stocks as the Reflation Trade plays catch-up in the second half. The “Melt-Up” might occur late in the year if bonds start to sell off and cash floods into stocks from the bond market. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: What the Fed Said, and What It Really Means
Also on the Big Picture: The risk of double taxation
Jim’s next Big Picture topic centers on Ben Bernanke’s testimony on Capitol Hill this week. His remarks seemed to cause some confusion in the financial markets. Bernanke said premature tightening would carry a substantial risk of ending the economic recovery, but didn’t really provide much detail on when or if the Fed would begin to withdraw stimulus. Jim reads the tea leaves and gives his analysis of the Fed’s exit strategy. In the next topic, “The Risk of Double Taxation” Jim discusses the latest Congressional hunt for more tax revenue, this time focusing on Apple and its hoard of overseas cash. Jim looks at the very high corporate tax rates in the US, and the valid reasons corporations are reluctant to repatriate overseas cash.
Dr. Marc Faber: Investors Ignore Neglected Assets When They Are Cheap, Like Gold
Biggest mistake investors make is to disregard diversification
Jim is pleased to welcome back Marc Faber PhD, of Marc Faber Limited in Hong Kong. Marc and Jim discuss the current state of the gold market and that Marc is buying gold every month, which he is storing in Asia, not Switzerland or the US. Marc also emphasizes the importance of diversification, and how his assets are evenly divided among real estate, stocks, bonds and gold. He also notes that sadly most investors are always chasing performance, forcing them to usually buy high and sell low. While Marc mentions that currently there are more sellers than buyers in gold, he acknowledges that “something isn’t right in the gold market”. Marc and Jim also discuss the current strength of the US dollar.
Barry Bannister: The Biggest Risk to the Economy Is Government Policy, Not Fundamentals
The reflation trade will return in the second half of 2013
Jim is pleased to welcome back Barry Bannister CFA, Managing Director at Stifel Nicolaus. Barry characterizes the first half of 2013 as recovery from a deflationary shock, with defensive stocks outperforming. He sees the second half of the year as a return of the “reflation trade”, with an emphasis on the energy, materials, industrials and technology sectors. Barry also discusses the many parallels between the depression-era policies of 1932-1937 and the current economic policies from 2009 -2013. He sees politicians repeating many of the same policy mistakes, and believes if the economy falters, it will be policy-driven, not from the economic fundamentals.
Ryan Puplava: Cyclical Rotation - The “Taper Trade” Is On, Defensive Stocks Are Off
Also, Ryan with the Market Wrap-Up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income
Ryan Puplava does double duty this week, giving his technical analysis on the markets as well as his weekly Market Wrap-up. Technically, Ryan sees a cyclical rotation of stocks into what he refers to as The Taper Trade, and out of more defensive stocks such as health care and utilities. Ryan is bullish on energy and copper as they are tied to more robust economic activity. Ryan also discusses bonds, gold and currencies. In addition, Erik Townsend looks at Commodities and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Game of Thrones - The Dollar vs. Gold
Also, “Forget a QE Exit Plan - Serial Money Printing Is the Wave of the Future”
The first Big Picture topic this week is “Game of Thrones - the Dollar vs. Gold”. Jim looks at the massive global currency debasement among central banks, and in that current game the dollar is king. Gold is in the background and not a major player. Jim believes this will not last, but for now the dollar is winning the game. The next topic, “Forget a QE Exit Plan, Serial Money Printing is the Wave of the Future”, Jim notes that 14 central banks around the world have cut interest rates, and are printing money with no exit strategy in sight. He notes that the next Fed Chairperson, widely assumed to be Janet Yellen, will make Ben Bernanke look conservative when it comes to money printing.
Dan Steffens: Natural Gas Prices Going Up
Natural gas inventories dipping below 5 year average
Jim welcomes Dan Steffens, the President of Energy Prospectus Group (EPG), a networking organization based in Houston, Texas. Dan publishes EPG’s newsletter, “The View From Houston”. Dan discusses his views on natural gas, and lays out the case for higher natural gas prices ahead. Dan and Jim also discuss the energy stocks, and Dan advises investors to look for companies that balance natural gas and oil production, and can switch back and forth as market conditions warrant.