Financial Sense Newshour on the Markets
Ryan Puplava: Cyclical Rotation - The “Taper Trade” Is On, Defensive Stocks Are Off
Also, Ryan with the Market Wrap-Up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income
Ryan Puplava does double duty this week, giving his technical analysis on the markets as well as his weekly Market Wrap-up. Technically, Ryan sees a cyclical rotation of stocks into what he refers to as The Taper Trade, and out of more defensive stocks such as health care and utilities. Ryan is bullish on energy and copper as they are tied to more robust economic activity. Ryan also discusses bonds, gold and currencies. In addition, Erik Townsend looks at Commodities and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Game of Thrones - The Dollar vs. Gold
Also, “Forget a QE Exit Plan - Serial Money Printing Is the Wave of the Future”
The first Big Picture topic this week is “Game of Thrones - the Dollar vs. Gold”. Jim looks at the massive global currency debasement among central banks, and in that current game the dollar is king. Gold is in the background and not a major player. Jim believes this will not last, but for now the dollar is winning the game. The next topic, “Forget a QE Exit Plan, Serial Money Printing is the Wave of the Future”, Jim notes that 14 central banks around the world have cut interest rates, and are printing money with no exit strategy in sight. He notes that the next Fed Chairperson, widely assumed to be Janet Yellen, will make Ben Bernanke look conservative when it comes to money printing.
Dan Steffens: Natural Gas Prices Going Up
Natural gas inventories dipping below 5 year average
Jim welcomes Dan Steffens, the President of Energy Prospectus Group (EPG), a networking organization based in Houston, Texas. Dan publishes EPG’s newsletter, “The View From Houston”. Dan discusses his views on natural gas, and lays out the case for higher natural gas prices ahead. Dan and Jim also discuss the energy stocks, and Dan advises investors to look for companies that balance natural gas and oil production, and can switch back and forth as market conditions warrant.
The Lifetime Income Series: Waiting to Get In - Hard to Make Money From the Sidelines
Special Guest: Peter Bell, president of the National Reverse Mortgage Association
This week Jim and Cathlyn discuss the dilemma of those sitting on the sideline in cash. When is the right time to make a move? They illustrate the issue by discussing the case study of a retired couple, David and Michelle, who are unhappy with the meager returns on cash and CDs, but have not been ready to make a move into the market. Jim lays out a strategy to boost their income, but warns that time may be running short for income investors. This week’s guest is Peter Bell, president & CEO of the National Reverse Mortgage Association.
Technician Shelley Moen: This Market Rally Has Legs - All Sectors Are Rising
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-Up, Erik Townsend on Commodities and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income
Jim welcomes back Shelley D Moen CMT, Senior Market Strategist at Vermilion Technical Research, LLC. Shelley tells Jim that this is the best she has felt about the market since the bottom in 2002. She notes the Dow Theory buy signal, and believes this market has room to move higher. Shelley mentions that the Technology, Energy and Industrial sectors are all undervalued and very attractive at current levels. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend discusses commodities, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Time Is Running Out for Income Investors: Avoiding Impoverishment
Also, on the Big Picture: Dividend Stocks – Still the Best Game in Town
In this week’s first topic on the Big Picture, Jim looks at the global problem of low interest rates for investors, and how difficult it is for those who need interst income to survive. Jim sees time running out in that any significant yield in the future will come with higher risk. Jim disucsses what a yield-starved investor should do. In the next Big Picture topic, which relates to the first topic, Jim lays out the case that dividend-paying stocks are still the best game in town. Jim also looks at specfic sectors within the dividend stock universe and explains why these blue-chip dividend plays are the best alternative in the current environment. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this segement of the program.
Jeffrey Saut: If This Is A New Secular Bull Market, We Have Years Left To Run
The dividend game is not over
Jim is pleased to welcome Jeffrey Saut, Managing Director of Research at Raymond James Financial. Jeff mentions that many investment managers and other professionals are feeling “performance pressures” from having missed the recent rally, as well as others that have underperformed by emphasizing international equities over US-focused equities. Jeff does not think the dividend play of recent years is extended, as payout ratios average only 32% of earnings on the S&P index, compared with historical norms of 50% payout ratios.
Technician Stan Weinstein: Still A Bullish Outlook For Stocks
Also, Chris Puplava with a Macro look at the second half, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income
Jim is pleased to welcome back technician Stan Weinstein, editor and publisher of the "Global Trend Alert," a financial advisory service for institutional investors. Stan sees the possibility of a short-term correction, but believes the current rally has more legs, given that the S&P closed above 1600 on Friday. Stan is still clearly bullish in his outlook, and also notes the rapid sector rotations. If we get a correction, he believes it will be a controlled correction. Stan is neutral on bonds, and negative on gold, at least for the next few months. Also in this segment, Chris Puplava gives his macro outlook for the second half of this year, Erik Townsend looks at commodities, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: The Next Rotation - Unloved, Unappreciated and Undervalued
Also on the Big Picture: On The Record - with Jim and John
In the first Big Picture topic this week, Jim looks at the next stock market rotation. He believes it will focus on the energy, technology and materials sectors, all of which are currently unloved, unappreciated and undervalued. The next topic will be the monthly conversation, On The Record, where John asks Jim questions of timely and topical importance. Some of the topics covered include why Jim is optimistic on stocks, why you don’t want to store your bullion at a Wall Street bank, what distinguishes Jim’s practice from others in the industry, and why QE will end badly.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: The Mechanics of Inflation – Why Stock Prices Are Headed Higher
Jim answers your Q-Calls in this segment
In this Big Picture segment Jim looks at the mechanics of inflation, and why stock prices are likely headed higher as a result. Jim notes that historically, every monetary inflation begins with a rise in stock prices. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this segment of the Financial Sense Newshour.
Alex Daley: Apple Transitioning From Growth Company To Blue-Chip Company
2012 – A turning point for digital media
Jim welcomes Alex Daley, Chief Technology Investment Strategist with Casey Research. Alex and Jim discuss Apple, and if it is a buy at current levels. Alex also discusses Apple’s transition from a rapidly growing tech company to a Blue-Chip company with a growing dividend. Apple’s share of the smartphone market is shrinking, and that will likely continue. But Alex also notes new catalysts for Apple with the coming “I-Watch”, the deal with China Mobile to produce and sell inexpensive smartphones in China, and Apple’s sizable and growing dividend.
Neil Irwin – The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire
The extraordinary power of central bankers and how they used it during the great financial crisis
Jim welcomes author and Washington Post columnist Neil Irwin to discuss his new book, “The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire”. The book focuses on the world’s most powerful men never elected to public office; Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve, Mervyn King of the Bank of England, and Jean-Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank. Mr. Irwin initially looks at the origins of central banking and then takes the reader into the Great Financial Crisis and its aftermath with the story of these three men and the extraordinary power they have over our collective fate, and that of the global economy.
Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors: Paper Gold Is Short-Term and Leveraged - Physical Gold Is Long-Term and Cash
The Old Mining Model of Acquisition and Production Is Broken - A New Model Is Emerging
Jim welcomes Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., which manages a diversified family of mutual funds and hedge funds specializing in gold, natural resources and emerging markets. Frank believes the two main factors determining gold demand are the Fear Trade (of inflation or economic crisis) and the Love Trade (gold jewelry demand- primarily from India and China). Frank also discussed why gold stocks have underperformed the metal; the old model of acquisition and production is broken. Frank sees a new model emerging, one that is more shareholder-friendly. After the recent hard landing, Frank sees the price of gold likely to remain in a consolidation period, until demand overwhelms supply.
Technician Tom McClellan: Gold Cycling Up – Summer Doldrums Ahead for Stocks
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard with the Fixed Income Report
Jim welcomes back noted technician Tom McClellan of The McClellan Market Report. Tom sees some near-term problems in the markets through the summer, but is optimistic long-term on the stock market for the balance of the decade. Tom sees gold cycling up, and notes that junior gold stocks are widely disliked, and thus present a great opportunity. Also, Ryan Puplava has the Market Wrap-up this week, Erik Townsend discusses commodities, and Rob Bernard looks at the fixed income market. (Click here for charts)
Eoin Treacy: US Blue-Chip Multinational Stocks the Place to Be
Recent Whiff of Deflation, But Plenty of Money Floating Around to Create Inflation
Jim welcomes back Eoin Treacy, Global Strategist at Fullermoney, a division of Stockcube Research Ltd. in London. Eoin is favorable toward US markets, noting contracting P/E’s and rising dividend yields on US stocks. He believes the US has an advantage over other countries, and sees US multinational stocks leveraged to the global economy as the best place to invest. Bond investors are reluctant to change their strategy, and Eoin doesn’t see them moving into stocks until they start losing money in bonds.
Brian Pretti: Global Capital Flight To The US Will Drive Next Melt-up In The Stock Market
Japan ready to unleash a tsunami of money globally
Jim is pleased to welcome back Brian Pretti CFA, Managing Editor at ContraryInvestor.com. Brian says to brace yourself for the flight of global capital coming into the US later this year. For now, all roads lead to the dollar. Brian believes the first wave will come from capital fleeing both Europe and Asia. Brian and Jim also discuss the new Japanese monetary policy and how this will unleash a flood of cheap money on the globe. This will encourage sophisticated investors to borrow in Japan, invest in the US, and pay back the loan in cheaper Yen, increasing the return substantially.
Technician Ralph Acampora: Stock Market In A Corrective Mode; Still A Primary Bull Market
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income
Jim is pleased to welcome back legendary technician Ralph Acampora, Director of Tactical Investments at Altaira Wealth Management. Ralph sees the market in a corrective mode, which could last a month or so. He notes divergences in the Transports and the DAX. He sees the US and Japan as the best places to invest, and believes the secular bull is still in the early stages. However, Ralph sees the bond bull-market in the 9th inning of its long 30 year run. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava wraps up this week in the markets, Erik Townsend discusses gold and commodities, and Rob Bernard looks at bonds and interest rates in the Fixed Income Report.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Drop, Pop, And A Melt-Up In The Stock Market
Also, “The Dividend Story Keeps Getting Better, Better and Better”
In this segment of the Big Picture, Jim looks at two stock related topics. In “Drop, Pop and a Melt-up in the Stock Market”, Jim discusses the idea that the next stock market melt-up will be caused by the flight of global capital coming into the US from both Asia and Europe. In the next topic, “The Dividend Story keeps getting Better, Better and Better”, Jim looks at the reasons why to own dividend-paying equities, and the trend of growing dividend pay-outs in the first quarter of 2013. Jim will also answer your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.
Dave Lauer: Crime Without Punishment - The Looting of Individual Investors by Robo Traders
Wall Street’s Lobbying Machine vs. The Individual Investor
Jim welcomes back Dave Lauer, a Market Structure and Technology Architecture Consultant. His most recent work includes public policy with Better Markets and technology architecture with IEX, a new equity market. Previously, he worked as a senior quantitative analyst at Allston Trading and Citadel Investment Group. Dave believes the cops (regulators) are not on the beat, and this puts individual investors at a distinct disadvantage. He sees HFT traders as manipulators of the market without fear of punishment. Dave says the “uptick rule” must be reinstated to protect the individual investor, but the Wall Street lobbying machine convinces both regulators and legislators that it isn’t necessary. With money and influence on their side, the Robo Traders are becoming the Robber Barons of the 21st century.
The Lifetime Income Series: A Bond Is Not A Stock; That’s Why It Diversifies Your Portfolio
Special Guest: Attorney Tom Collett Discusses Tax-efficient Business Planning
In this week’s edition Jim and Cathlyn discuss the function of bonds in a portfolio, and how to evaluate them. They go over bond basics such as maturity date, coupon yield and current yield, as well as identifying the main bond risks. Jim explains the primary functions of a bond in a portfolio allocation, as well as how to assess the performance of bonds within a portfolio. They also reiterate the important difference between a bond and a bond fund. The guest this week is Tom Collett, Senior Attorney at Standard Retirement Services, Inc. in Cincinnati, Ohio. Tom will discuss tax-efficient business planning.