Financial Sense Newshour on the Markets
Technician Craig Johnson: Bull Market Still Intact - Investors Fighting Last War
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard with the Fixed Income Report
Jim is pleased to welcome technician Craig Johnson CMT CFA from Piper Jaffray this week. Craig believes the long-term bull market is still intact in stocks, and sees investors as very fearful and “fighting the last war”. He also sees mutual fund managers as fearful as well, and unwilling to buy. Craig believes the S&P will hit 2000 in the next 24 months, but regards the bond market as “one gigantic bubble”. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend gives an update on commodities, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Louis-Vincent Gave: The Chinese Market Has Bottomed
Tax increases a short-term headwind for the markets
Jim welcomes back Louis-Vincent Gave, CEO at GaveKal in Hong Kong. Louis believes the Chinese market has bottomed, and there is value to be found there, particularly in RMB bonds. He sees tax increases in the US as a short-term headwind to the markets, and looks to a “Dogs of the Dow” strategy as the most sensible way to invest in the US near term. Louis also sees increasing merger and acquisition activity as a big story in 2013.
Brian Pretti: Fiscal Cliff Compromise Likely Before Year End
Politicians Will Cut A Deal Or Boldly Kick The Can Down The Road
Jim welcomes back Brian Pretti CFA, Managing Editor at ContraryInvestor.com. Brian sees a likely political compromise on the “Fiscal Cliff” tax increases and spending cuts due to start in January. They will cut a deal, or at the least, postpone any decision until later in the year. Brian also discusses the sorry state of the economy in California, and how recent significant tax increases won’t help matters. Brian and Jim also discuss the state of the markets post-election.
Technician Stan Weinstein: Expect Markets to Head Lower Next 3 - 6 Months
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities and Jim Puplava with the Fixed Income Report
Jim welcomes famed technician Stan Weinstein back to the program. Stan believes U.S. markets have just entered a bear market and says long, intermediate, and short-term trends have turned negative. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend discusses the commodities markets, and Jim Puplava gives the Fixed Income Report.
Dave Lauer: “Flash Crash” Will Happen Again−Regulators Outgunned and Outsmarted
Circuit breakers on stock exchanges not working
Jim is pleased to welcome Dave Lauer, a market structure and high-frequency trading consultant to IEX Group. Dave recently testified before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs as to the dangers of high-frequency trading and also suggested potential solutions. Dave’s key points to combat the growing threats to market stability are to level the data-access playing field, reinstate the uptick rule, eliminate the maker-taker business model, and implement a market-wide surveillance system.
Bud Conrad: Tangible Assets−Where You Should Have Your Money Now
Real Estate now attractive for investors
Jim welcomes Bud Conrad, Chief Economist for Casey Research. Bud discusses real estate in the economic cycle, and believes it’s now an attractive investment. He also lists where you should have your money now; metals, food, real estate and energy. Bud also talks about what worries him at the moment: rising food prices, Libya and the Middle East, a possible China-Japan conflict, and the massive US budget deficits. Bud and Jim also discuss interest rates, and how they could start rising.
Joe Dancy: Record Food Prices Spell Trouble Ahead For The Middle East
Energy stocks at best valuations in a decade
Jim welcomes back energy expert Joe Dancy to discuss how record food prices will likely disrupt energy markets next year, as well as potentially set the stage for more turmoil in the Middle East. Joe also discusses the myth of energy independence in the US and why the energy stocks are the cheapest they’ve been in a decade.
Technician Louise Yamada: Time To Be Cautious Until Uncertainties Are Resolved
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on commodities and Rob Bernard with the Fixed Income Report
Jim welcomes renowned technician Louise Yamada this week from New York City. Louise advises caution until the significant macro issues (presidential election and fiscal cliff) are resolved and there is more clarity looking out to 2013. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has the Market Wrap-up in this last week before the election, Erik Townsend discusses the commodities markets, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Jim’s Big Picture: Gold Stocks–Time to Reap the Rewards
Also on the Big Picture: Think Dividends and Grow Rich
In this segment of the Big Picture, the first topic is: "Gold Stocks−time to reap the rewards." Jim looks at how the gold stocks have underperformed the price of gold, and how this may be about to change for the well-run gold mining companies.
The next Big Picture topic on the advantages of dividend reinvesting and compounding is a take-off on the famous book by Napoleon Hill: "Think and Grow Rich." Jim looks at how dividend investing can save you during long periods of a flat-to-down market. The compounding of dividends over time can make a tremendous difference for those saving for retirement.
Greg Weldon: US and Global Bond Markets−The Biggest Bubble In History
Central Banks now funding the majority of Government spending
Jim welcomes Gregory Weldon, President & CEO of Weldon Financial. Greg and Jim cover a number of topics, including the global bond market as a massive bubble, and how central banks are funding the majority of government spending. Greg also believes QE3 is not effective so far, and expects the Fed to announce additional Treasury purchases in the next few Fed meetings. Greg also sees Japan as the next "black hole" in the global debt crisis, as Japanese citizens have finally exhausted their savings and can no longer buy government debt.
Jon Matonis on Bitcoin CryptoCurrency−Is “Digital Gold” The Future Of Money?
What is Bitcoin, and Can It Compete with Government Currency Monopolies?
Jim welcomes Jon Matonis, an e-Money researcher and Crypto Economist focused on expanding the circulation of nonpolitical digital currencies. Jon explains the definition of "crypto-currency" and discusses Bitcoin, the first true crypto-currency, which he describes as ''digital gold." Jon and Jim discuss the potential of Bitcoin, if it will eventually compete against government monopoly currencies, and if crypto-currencies could in fact become the future of money itself.
Ned Schmidt: World Grain Surpluses Have Evaporated
New high for gold coming−but not until 2013
Jim welcomes Ned Schmidt CFA, publisher of The Agri-Food Value View and The Value View Gold Reports. Ned discusses the "must own" stocks in the agriculture sector, but cautions that agricultural equipment manufacturers are not having a good year. Ned also notes that world grain surpluses have all but disappeared and the corn shortage is basically an American story, not global. In the precious metals sector, Ned sees new highs for gold, but not until next year. He also advises buying dividend-paying stocks if investing in precious metals equities. Finally, he believes that gold bullion has finally been recognized as a legitimate investment class.
Technician Dave Nicoski: Blue Chip Stocks Breaking Out−Bullish Outlook Going Forward
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard with the Fixed Income Report
Jim welcomes back Dave Nicoski CMT, Director of Research at Vermilion Technical Research, LLC. Dave sees the market continuing to consolidate until the elections, but longer term sees the general uptrend continuing. He sees a break-out in the blue chip stocks, which he believes is very bullish for the market going forward. Dave also notes that Fed intervention has resulted in breakouts in the financial and health care sectors. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has his weekly Market Wrap-up, and Rob Bernard the Fixed Income Report. This week, Erik Townsend joins the first hour of the program as a regular contributor, focusing on the commodities markets.
Jim’s Big Picture: The High Frequency Business Cycle
Also on the Big Picture: A New Bull Market? There’s Something Happening Here…
In this week’s first Big Picture segment, Jim looks at the "high frequency business cycle"and explains why for the last three years the business cycle is so much shorter than historic norms. In his next Big Picture, Jim explores "A new bull market? There’s something happening here." Since the markets have been consistently crawling up the "wall of worry" this year, there must be something happening of which most investors are not aware.
Martin Armstrong: Huge Amounts of Money Moving Into Bonds−Which Will Evaporate
Civil unrest cycle to accelerate by 2014
Jim welcomes Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics and founder of Princeton Economics. Martin sees a strong trend of financial and economic power moving to Asia. In the US, he notes that stability is vital to economic growth, but that is lacking in Washington. As to the stock market and gold, he sees the next up-cycle for both beginning by summer 2013, with the Dow reaching 20,000 later next year. He sees the "smart money" moving out of bonds and into stocks. Martin believes the strongest up-cycle for gold will be in 2016-2020, when he sees gold prices going parabolic. He sees the civil unrest cycle accelerating in 2014 in the US, driven by layoffs in the public sector.
Jeff Saut: This Is Not 1987−The Difference Is Valuations
The US is on the verge of a manufacturing renaissance
Jim welcomes Jeffrey Saut, Managing Director of Research at Raymond James Financial Inc. Jeff believes that valuations are much better today than in the crash year of 1987, and that March 2009 marked the low in this market cycle. He sees very little investor belief that this is a new secular bull market, even from institutions, which is a bullish indicator. Jeff sees investors looking in the rear view mirror, as they usually do, and believes that exiting the stock market will be a big mistake. On the other hand, he sees the bond market as an accident waiting to happen within the next 3-5 years. Jeff would only turn bearish at this point if there was a "black swan" event that would disrupt the US economy, such as large-scale war in the Middle East.
Frank Barbera: Ring The Cash Register While You Can–QE May Have Reached Its Limit
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up this week and Rob Bernard with the Fixed Income Report
Technician Frank Barbera joins the Financial Sense Newshour for a special visit this week. Frank informs Jim (tongue firmly in cheek) that he is building a new bunker, an "off-shore" island bunker, and equipping it with supplies and fishing nets. On a more serious note, he believes that QE may have reached its effective limit, and advises "ringing the cash register" (taking profits) while you can. He also discussed the possibility that the markets could be facing a deflationary outcome. Also on the program, Ryan Puplava gives his weekly Market Wrap-up and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Ian McAvity: QE Is Nothing But A Bailout For The Banks
Gold will hit $2200-$2500 before the public gets engaged
Jim is pleased to welcome Ian McAvity CMT, editor of Deliberations on World Markets since 1972. Ian sees all the Quantitative Easing by central banks as nothing but a banking bailout, and believes the world is heading toward a global currency crisis. Ian believes gold is the best investment alternative, but doubts the public will become engaged until the price reaches the $2200-$2500 range. Ian also believes the precious metals equities have bottomed, and gold is the key driver of silver. Ironically, the biggest current buyers of gold are the central banks themselves.
Don Coxe: Commodity Super-Cycle Still In Its Early Stages
Remain overweight the agricultural stocks within commodity equity portfolios
Jim welcomes Don Coxe of Coxe Advisors LLP to discuss the Commodity Super-Cycle. Don believes that because most commodities are no longer priced primarily by Europe and North America, they are less risky than conventional Wall Street economists understand. Don strongly feels that investors need to invest where the demand is, and will be, for coming decades. That means economies whose consumption of commodities per unit of GDP is still far higher than ours. Since 1998, Don has advised clients to "invest in companies which produce what China needs to buy."
Axel Merk: Beyond the Fiscal Cliff−The Dollar At Risk
Three scenarios that put the bond market in jeopardy
Jim welcomes Axel Merk, founder of Merk Investments LLC. Axel discusses the potential risk to the US dollar, beyond the issues of the Fiscal Cliff. He also discusses three scenarios that put the bond market at risk going forward. Axel notes that unless Medicare is truly reformed, it will cease to exist in the future. With the rising cost structure and arrival of the baby boomers, there are simply not enough wealthy people to tax to save the system.