Financial Sense Newshour on Metals
Dr. Marc Faber: Investors Ignore Neglected Assets When They Are Cheap, Like Gold
Biggest mistake investors make is to disregard diversification
Jim is pleased to welcome back Marc Faber PhD, of Marc Faber Limited in Hong Kong. Marc and Jim discuss the current state of the gold market and that Marc is buying gold every month, which he is storing in Asia, not Switzerland or the US. Marc also emphasizes the importance of diversification, and how his assets are evenly divided among real estate, stocks, bonds and gold. He also notes that sadly most investors are always chasing performance, forcing them to usually buy high and sell low. While Marc mentions that currently there are more sellers than buyers in gold, he acknowledges that “something isn’t right in the gold market”. Marc and Jim also discuss the current strength of the US dollar.
Ned Schmidt: I Haven’t Been This Optimistic on Gold in the Last Four Years
Gold stocks are being given away
Jim welcomes back Ned Schmidt CFA, Publisher of The Value View Gold & The Agri-Food Value View Reports. Ned is very optimistic on gold. He also advises investors to ignore Wall Street, as he believes gold is currently funding the “carry trade”. He notes that Chinese imports of gold have doubled from a year ago. Ned also cites three key factors for his optimism. The first is the ratio between gold valuation and the stock market is the best since 2008. Secondly, he believes the bottom in the price of physical gold is in place. Lastly, Ned believes the next Federal Reserve chairperson, widely believed to be Janet Yellen, will make Ben Bernanke look conservative when it comes to money-printing.
Russell Napier: Emerging Markets Faltering, Foretelling Deflation Ahead
QE Is Keeping the Patient Alive, But Not Healthy
Jim welcomes back Russell Napier, Consultant with CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. Russell makes the case that faltering economic growth in the emerging markets, weaker commodity prices, a falling yen and strengthening dollar are warning signs of a deflationary shock ahead. Russell believes that the rally in developed-world equities will not last much longer as emerging market growth slows. He is bearish on gold shorter term, but bullish longer-term as both structural and cyclical forces turn in gold’s favor. Russell sees the current falling gold price as a sign that the global reflation is failing and we are nearing a deflationary shock.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Game of Thrones - The Dollar vs. Gold
Also, “Forget a QE Exit Plan - Serial Money Printing Is the Wave of the Future”
The first Big Picture topic this week is “Game of Thrones - the Dollar vs. Gold”. Jim looks at the massive global currency debasement among central banks, and in that current game the dollar is king. Gold is in the background and not a major player. Jim believes this will not last, but for now the dollar is winning the game. The next topic, “Forget a QE Exit Plan, Serial Money Printing is the Wave of the Future”, Jim notes that 14 central banks around the world have cut interest rates, and are printing money with no exit strategy in sight. He notes that the next Fed Chairperson, widely assumed to be Janet Yellen, will make Ben Bernanke look conservative when it comes to money printing.
Ronald Stoeferle: We Were Really Close To A Default In The Leveraged Paper Gold System
It is the price of paper gold that has plunged, not gold itself
Jim welcomes Ronald Stoeferle, publisher of the respected annual report, “In Gold We Trust”, and a gold fund manager in Vienna, Austria. Ronald tells Jim that we were close to a run on the bullion banks during the recent chaotic drop in gold. He also sees a growing movement to remove gold from the financial system, as paper gold is creating too much counterparty risk, as witnessed by the Dutch bank ABN Amro’s recent gold default. Ronald sees the divergence between paper gold plunging in price and record demand for physical gold as a loss of confidence in the banking system by the public. The next issue of “In Gold We Trust” will be published in June.
Technician Stan Weinstein: Still A Bullish Outlook For Stocks
Also, Chris Puplava with a Macro look at the second half, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income
Jim is pleased to welcome back technician Stan Weinstein, editor and publisher of the "Global Trend Alert," a financial advisory service for institutional investors. Stan sees the possibility of a short-term correction, but believes the current rally has more legs, given that the S&P closed above 1600 on Friday. Stan is still clearly bullish in his outlook, and also notes the rapid sector rotations. If we get a correction, he believes it will be a controlled correction. Stan is neutral on bonds, and negative on gold, at least for the next few months. Also in this segment, Chris Puplava gives his macro outlook for the second half of this year, Erik Townsend looks at commodities, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors: Paper Gold Is Short-Term and Leveraged - Physical Gold Is Long-Term and Cash
The Old Mining Model of Acquisition and Production Is Broken - A New Model Is Emerging
Jim welcomes Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., which manages a diversified family of mutual funds and hedge funds specializing in gold, natural resources and emerging markets. Frank believes the two main factors determining gold demand are the Fear Trade (of inflation or economic crisis) and the Love Trade (gold jewelry demand- primarily from India and China). Frank also discussed why gold stocks have underperformed the metal; the old model of acquisition and production is broken. Frank sees a new model emerging, one that is more shareholder-friendly. After the recent hard landing, Frank sees the price of gold likely to remain in a consolidation period, until demand overwhelms supply.
Technician Tom McClellan: Gold Cycling Up – Summer Doldrums Ahead for Stocks
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard with the Fixed Income Report
Jim welcomes back noted technician Tom McClellan of The McClellan Market Report. Tom sees some near-term problems in the markets through the summer, but is optimistic long-term on the stock market for the balance of the decade. Tom sees gold cycling up, and notes that junior gold stocks are widely disliked, and thus present a great opportunity. Also, Ryan Puplava has the Market Wrap-up this week, Erik Townsend discusses commodities, and Rob Bernard looks at the fixed income market. (Click here for charts)
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: A Conversation With Keith Barron – The New Gold Stock Paradigm
Changes In The Gold Mining Industry - Better News For Investors
Jim welcomes renowned geologist Keith Barron, PhD to the program. Keith was co-founder of Ecuadorian gold explorer Aurelian Resources Inc. and made the colossal Fruta del Norte gold discovery in 2006. Keith is currently founder and Exploration Geologist at U308 Corp. Keith and Jim discuss the new “gold stock paradigm” that is emerging, where companies are becoming more investor-friendly, relying less on the old “acquisition of ounces” model, and more on increasing shareholder value through cost controls, and emphasis on quality over quantity.
Ross Hansen: Physical Demand For Precious Metals Continues To Go Up
The Fundamentals For Precious Metals Haven’t Changed
Jim welcomes back Ross Hansen, founder of Northwest Territorial Mint, now the largest private mint in the US. Ross discusses the recent high demand for physical precious metals, and notes that the fundamentals of the market have not changed. At the moment, there is a shortage of product, specifically gold and silver coins. Ross advises to not pay the current higher premiums on coins, but just buy the rounds or bullion. He sees the “fast money” crowd trading in and out of the paper gold market, but the demand for physical precious metals continues to rise. Jim and Ross also discuss the current situation in Cyprus.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Fast and Furious- Paper Gold vs. Physical Gold - The Real Story Behind Gold’s Decline
Kathryn Derbes of KDerbes Precious Metals LLC - “We’re Completely Out of Silver Eagles - They’re Gone”
In this segment of the Big Picture Jim looks at the large decline in gold and silver, and gets into the reasons behind the carnage, as well as the huge difference between “physical gold & silver” and “paper gold & silver”. Jim notes that investors should know why they own gold, understand it, and then leave it alone. Also, Kathy Derbes CFA, and CEO of KDerbes Precious Metals LLC, joins Jim in this segment. She notes the current record buying of physical precious metals, last seen during the Lehman crisis, and says her firm is “completely out” of Silver Eagles. Kathy is not even taking orders for more Eagles, as it may take six to eight weeks or more to acquire them.
Simon Mikhailovich: It’s 12 O’clock, Do You Know Where Your Gold Is?
How Safe Is Your Bank Account?
Jim welcomes Simon Mikhailovich, Co-Founder of Eidesis Capital LLC in New York City. Jim and Simon cover a number of topics, including gold, why people should own it, and the difference between paper and physical gold. Simon also discusses the safety of your bank accounts in the future as governments look at the “Cyprus Model”, including the US. Simon talks about the coming “wealth taxes” in Europe, as governments desperately search for revenue amidst weakening economies. Simon calls gold “the most under-owned asset class in the world” and believes the real bull market in gold has not yet begun.
Technician Craig Johnson: S&P Going to 1700 By Year End and 2000 Next Year
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Chris Puplava on Gold, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income
Jim welcomes back Craig Johnson CMT CFA, a Principal and Senior Technical Research Analyst at Piper Jaffray. Craig sees the S&P reaching 1700 by years end, although he notes that investors are still skeptical and only reluctantly long. Craig sees the next great catalyst to launch the market higher will be the shift from bonds and bond funds into stocks, as interest rates begin to climb. Also this week, Ryan Puplava wraps up this week in the markets, and Chris Puplava joins the program to discuss the volatile gold market. Rob Bernard looks at interest rates and the fixed income market this week.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: The Dow Hits A New Record High - Are Stocks Overpriced?
Also on the Big Picture, “Gold - The Final Maalox Moment - I Want To Hold Your Hand”
This week on the Big Picture Jim looks at two important topics, the Dow and Gold. In the first topic, Jim puts this week’s record highs in the Dow Jones index in context and offers his analysis on current stock valuations. In the next topic, Jim discusses if this week’s washout in gold is the final “Maalox Moment”. He also looks closely at gold leasing as one of the key culprits behind the severe selling pressure. Jim’s characterization of the gold leasing market can be summarized in the following question: “It’s 12 O’clock- Do you know where your gold is?”
Grant Williams: Currency Wars Now Entering Their End Game
There Is No Hard Currency Left But Gold
Jim is pleased to welcome back Grant Williams, Portfolio & Strategy Advisor at Vulpes Investment Management in Singapore, and author of the popular investment letter, “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…”. Grant discusses the recent policy change in Japan, which is now printing massive amounts of Yen to raise inflation and weaken the currency. Grant notes that it didn’t work in the 1930’s for Japan, and it won’t work this time. He does see a coming Asian currency war in response however. Grant also speaks in some detail about gold and gold equities. He believes the world is struggling with accepting gold as a currency. But Grant notes that at some point deficits matter and excessive money printing will eventually drive the price of gold significantly higher.
Technician Louise Yamada: Short-Term Consolidation Upon Us; Markets Ready For a Pause
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities and Jim Puplava on Fixed Income
Jim is pleased to welcome noted technician Louise Yamada CMT, Managing Director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors. Louise sees a short-term consolidation ahead, and thinks the markets are ready for a pause (click here for charts). She sees a 5-10% decline as not out of line. She admits monetary policy by the Fed is a big factor in today’s stock market. On gold, Louise believes the technical factors don’t look good at the present, with distribution taking place. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend covers commodities, and Jim Puplava has this week’s Fixed Income Report, sitting in for Rob Bernard.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Wash, Rinse and Repeat- That Was Then, This Is Now
Also, “Has The Glitter Faded? Why Gold Prices Can Still Go Higher”
In this week’s first Big Picture topic “Wash, Rinse and Repeat – that was then, this is now” Jim looks at a repeat of the Petro Business Cycle pattern for the fourth year in a row. The familiar economic scenario features a strong start to the year, then the LEI’s roll over and the economy starts to slow, which is followed by more Federal Reserve stimulus, which leads to a strong finish to the year. Wash, rinse and repeat. The next topic, “Has the glitter faded? Why gold prices can go higher” is in response to the weak precious metals market. Jim continues his thesis that you don’t need a Doomsday scenario to see rising gold prices in the future. This topic also leads into Jim’s in-depth conversation with John Kaiser on gold in the next segment of the program. Jim also answers some of your Q-calls in this segment.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: An In-Depth Conversation on Gold with John Kaiser
The Reasons Behind the Bear Market in Gold Equities and What Comes Next
Jim welcomes special guest and independent gold analyst John Kaiser of Kaiser Research Online and Kaiser Bottom-Fish Online. In a wide-ranging discussion on gold and gold equities (click here for charts), John and Jim look at the reasons behind the bear market in gold equities; the fundamentals of the mining business, the rise of the Robo-Traders, and the role (and complicity) of the regulators. They also discuss catalysts for why the gold market can recover and continue higher, and why it won’t take Armageddon. John and Jim also advise what to do as a gold stock investor, and how to not fall prey to the Robo-Traders. Also, Jim answers more of your Q-Calls in this segment.
Axel Merk: The Downside of Currency Wars
The US, Japan and the UK will drive gold prices higher
Jim welcomes back Axel Merk, founder and portfolio manager at Merk Investments LLC. This week Axel discusses some of the downside of currency wars, including a loss of competitiveness in domestic economies, growing social unrest, and in extreme cases, war. Axel also sees the Eurozone as less capable of debasing its currency than other countries, which will ultimately strengthen the Euro. He sees gold in a transition phase, but believes that the US, Japan and the UK will drive gold prices higher eventually.
Jim's Big Picture: Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome: Why We Do't Need Armageddon for Gold Prices to Head Higher
Also on the Big Picture: On the Record with Jim Puplava and John Loeffler
In this segment Jim gives his reasoning why gold prices can head higher without a crisis situation, or economic Armageddon. Jim sees many fundamental economic factors that could push gold and commodities higher, without the need for an “end of the world” scenario. The next topic is “On The Record”, as Jim is interviewed by John on a wide range of topics, including his macro views, investment topics and the content of the program. Jim also answers more of your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.