Financial Sense Newshour on Metals
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: QE, Gold’s Bear Market, and Why We Won’t Experience Hyperinflation
Also, “Why Dividends Are Still the Best Game in Town” and “The Market’s Bill of Health”
This week on the Big Picture, Jim looks at why QE hasn’t led to rising inflation, why gold is in a bear market, and why there is no prospect for hyperinflation. Jim explores the reasons behind these topics and how they are connected...
John Kaiser: Still No Catalyst on the Horizon for Gold
Purging Excess From the System and Setting the Stage for the Next Rally
Jim welcomes back John Kaiser, a mining analyst with over 25 years of experience and founder of Kaiser Research Online, specializing in the resource sector. John discusses the current outlook for the gold and gold mining sectors, and sees no catalyst on the horizon to re-ignite the industry.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Why I Changed My Mind on Hyperinflation
Also, “Around the World With the LEI’s”
This week on the Big Picture, Jim’s first topic is “Why I changed my mind on hyperinflation”. Jim covers the last decade with oil going from $10 to $150, and gold zooming from $250 to $1900. However, the great financial crisis of 2008 changed the landscape. Jim is now moving toward the disinflationary camp...
Keith Neumeyer: Sooner or Later a Catalyst Will Ignite the Silver Market
The Key to Survival in Silver Mining Is Ore Grade
Jim welcomes back Keith Neumeyer, President & CEO of First Majestic Silver Corp. Keith and Jim discuss the recent Silver Summit, as well as the difficult environment for silver miners. Keith believes that sooner or later a catalyst will arrive to reignite the price of silver.
Technician David Nicoski: It’s a Teflon Market - No Significant Corrections Ahead
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-Up, Rob Bernard on Fixed Income, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and the Market’s Bill of Health
Jim welcomes back David Nicoski CMT, Director of Research at Vermilion Technical Research, LLC. Dave sees no significant corrections ahead, just healthy backfilling and more frequent rotations...
Russell Napier: QE Is Not Working
For Outcome of Deflation vs. Inflation, Watch the Gold Market
Jim welcomes back Russell Napier, a consultant with CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. Russell makes the point that if QE is working, why is bank credit contracting? Since May 2013 US bank credit has been contracting at a 3% annualized rate.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Black Swans and the Dragon King
Also, “Gold: A Beaten Up and Undervalued Asset Looking for a Catalyst” and “The Market’s Bill of Health”
In this week’s first Big Picture topic, “Black Swans and the Dragon King” Jim discusses the work of recent FSN guest Didier Sornette, who distinguishes between “out-of-the-blue” Black Swan events, and those Sornette calls “Dragon Kings”...
John Doody: Gold in Contraction & Consolidation Phase
Gold investors should note factors impacting the industry and upgrade
Jim welcomes back John Doody, Ph.D., Editor at Gold Stock Analyst. John cautions investors by noting three factors currently consuming the gold industry...
Bud Conrad: The Fed Was Spooked by a Rise in Interest Rates
The US Is Still the Best House in a Bad Neighborhood
Jim welcomes back Bud Conrad, Chief Economist for Casey Research. Jim and Bud cover a wide array of subjects, including the Fed’s decision not to taper. Bud believes the Fed was spooked by the rise in interest rates over the summer.
Technician Louise Yamada: Major Indexes At New Highs - 32 Year Bull Market in Bonds Is Over
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Rob Bernard on Fixed Income, and Erik Townsend on Commodities
Jim welcomes back Louise Yamada CMT, Managing Director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors in New York. As all the major indexes have now surpassed the 2007 highs, Louise believes the structural bear market of the last 13 years has now become a structural bull market...
John Kaiser: Global Downturn in Emerging Markets Could Be Negative for Gold
Economic Activity Drives Gold Demand
Jim welcomes back John Kaiser, founder of Kaiser Research Online. John believes that gold is currently stuck in a trading range between $1200 and $1400 oz. He does not see a catalyst currently for higher prices, and believes the August rally is likely over. He sees the greatest worry for gold in the near term is India’s falling currency, which affects demand for gold in India. He sees the current global weakness in the emerging markets as negative for gold, as economic activity drives gold demand. John believes the next catalyst may be major central banks stepping up and buying gold in significant amounts. Currently, he sees exploration as the place to be in the gold space.
The Best of FS Insider - Dr. Marc Faber: Investors Ignore Neglected Assets When They Are Cheap, Like Gold
Biggest mistake investors make is to disregard diversification
In a special reprise edition of FS Insider, Jim speaks with Marc Faber PhD, of Marc Faber Limited in Hong Kong. Marc and Jim discuss the current state of the gold market and that Marc is buying gold every month, which he is storing in Asia, not Switzerland or the US. Marc also emphasizes the importance of diversification, and how his assets are evenly divided among real estate, stocks, bonds and gold. He also notes that sadly most investors are always chasing performance, forcing them to usually buy high and sell low. Marc and Jim also discuss the current strength of the US dollar. Jim spoke with Dr. Faber in May of this year.
Technician Tom McClellan: Stock Market to Remain Weak Into September
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-Up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income
Jim welcomes noted technician Tom McClellan, Editor at McClellan Financial Publications. Tom sees a continuing pattern of stock market weakness, likely bottoming in September. He discusses the Hindenburg Omen, and believes the indicator was distorted by recent weakness in bond funds. He also discusses the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern. Lastly he sees some bullish indicators for gold. Also, Ryan Puplava has the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend covers commodities and Rob Bernard looks at interest rates and fixed income.
Martin Armstrong: The US Is the Beneficiary of Foreign Crises – Follow the Capital Flows
The Dow may double by late 2015
Jim is pleased to welcome back Martin Armstrong of ArmstrongEconomics.com. Martin sees a near-term corrective phase in the market into later September, but doesn’t think we are near a market top. He notes that tops are marked by spike highs and investor euphoria, which we are not seeing at present. Martin doesn’t see a dollar crash ahead, as the US, and the dollar, are now beneficiaries of foreign crises around the globe. The key is international capital flows, something the bears are overlooking. Martin doesn’t see a significant rally in gold until 2015, when he expects another major debt default to launch gold higher.
Ned Schmidt: Gold Stock Selling in June Was Irrational
Agriculture stocks are still cheap
Jim welcomes back Ned Schmidt CFA, publisher of The Value View Gold & The Agri-Food Value View Reports. Ned is as bullish as he has been in years on gold, and believes the worst of the selling is over. He does see changes in the gold industry, and believes the days of the “elephant” gold projects are over. Ned also discusses the agriculture sector, and notes that many Ag stocks are still cheap. He likes both Deere and Monsanto, but feels you are likely to find them cheaper towards the fall.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Investing in the Gold Markets: Mistakes Made - Lessons Learned
Featuring Jean-Marie Eveillard, Ronald Stoeferle, Keith Barron and other industry experts
In this special edition of the Big Picture, Jim puts a capstone on his series of interviews with gold industry experts, including gold fund managers, gold mining CEO’s, geologists, newsletter publishers and gold analysts. Using audio clips from the experts for emphasis, Jim discusses the struggles of the gold industry, and lays out the mistakes that were made, and the lessons that were learned. The list of experts include Keith Barron, Robert Quartermain, Ross Hansen, John Doody, Jean-Marie Eveillard, Ronald Stoeferle, Caesar Bryan, Jeff Christian and Sean Boyd. Jim also answers your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.
Jean-Marie Eveillard: Gold Is Insurance Against Extreme Outcomes
Think of gold companies as a call on gold reserves
Jim is pleased to welcome Jean-Marie Eveillard, Senior Adviser at First Eagle Funds in New York City. In a wide-ranging discussion on gold and the economy, Jean-Marie explains that there are unintended consequences to a prolonged environment of negative interest rates. He also views gold as insurance against an extreme outcome. Jean-Marie notes that while Wall Street loves the easy money from the Federal Reserve, the Neo-Keynesian economic policies have not worked. He believes we are now in an undefined economic landscape never seen before. Jean-Marie also makes the distinction between physical gold, as a form of investment, and paper gold, which he views as speculation.
Robert Quartermain of Pretium Resources: Only the Strong Will Survive
Silver margins are negative
Jim welcomes Robert Quartermain, President, CEO and Director at Pretium Resources. As a veteran of 35 years in the mining industry, Bob understands the business and what it takes to survive. In these difficult times for the industry, Bob stresses that mining companies need to carefully manage their balance sheets, and only the strong will survive. He notes that costs have gone up and prices have fallen, and margins for silver producers are now negative. Many mining companies will have to go after their high-grade reserves, if they indeed have high-grade reserves. Bob sees a consolidation coming to the silver producers in particular. As to Pretium Resources, a gold exploration company, Bob notes the firm’s strong financial position, and good management team as indicators it has the staying power to survive, and ultimately thrive in the future.
David Morgan: Investors Still Holding Silver and Buying More
A $20 “all in” production cost makes silver unprofitable for many small producers
Jim welcomes back David Morgan of the Stone Investment Group and The Morgan Report. David and Jim cover the precious metals markets, particularly silver. David notes that on balance investors are still holding their silver and buying more. And while investment demand is not subsiding, he sees future supply hampered by a lack of large silver stockpiles, a decrease in base metal mining, and a market price below the cost of silver production. As to gold, he sees the movement of physical gold from the west to Asia as an historic transfer of wealth.
Ronald Stoeferle: The Fundamental Argument in Favor of Gold Remains Intact
The current correction in gold is similar to 1974-1976
Jim is pleased to welcome back Ronald Stoeferle CMT, Managing Director at Incrementum AG in Liechtenstein. He continues to write the annual “In Gold We Trust” as a senior advisor to Erste Group in Austria. Ronald believes we have seen the low’s in the gold price, but it’s going to take some time to repair the technical damage. As such, he believes there is limited downside risk, but the bottoming process will take time. Ronald sees similarities between this correction and the period of 1974-1976. He notes that disinflation is normally a poor environment for gold. Despite the damage to the gold price, Ronald believes the fundamental argument in favor of gold remains intact.