Financial Sense Newshour for Storm Watch
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Disinflation – The Battle Between Inflation and Deflation
Also, “The Next Asset Bubble: Risk-On Trade Has More Time to Run”
Nov 22 – The first topic on the Big Picture this week is about the ongoing global battle between inflation and deflation. Despite trillions of dollars created by central banks, there are continuing reports of falling inflation around the globe.
Michael Pettis on Why We Need a New Global Monetary System
Nov 11 – Cris Sheridan, Senior Editor of Financial Sense welcomes Michael Pettis, a Beijing-based economic theorist and financial strategist. Professor Pettis explains why the world needs a new global monetary system and the conditions under which holding the world’s reserve currency are an exorbitant privilege vs. an exorbitant burden.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Oil Wars - Risks and Opportunities
Is This the Beginning of a Return to Lower Oil Prices?
Nov 8 – This week on the Big Picture Jim and Erik Townsend join forces to cover a topic of crucial importance to the global economy, the “war” over oil and it’s price going forward. Many market observers thought there was an effective $100 floor under Brent crude.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Manias, Panics & Corrections
Also, “Surviving Financial Repression – Why Dividends Still Matter” and “The Fed’s Path to Normalization”
Nov 1 – In Jim’s first Big Picture topic, Jim discusses why we haven’t seen a market crash, and why the conditions aren’t there at present for a mania or a crash, outside of a rogue wave situation. He notes that conditions don’t favor a speculative boom and despite the Fed’s money printing...
Richard Duncan: Why QE 4 Is Inevitable
Duncan Expects Very Low Interest Rates Well Into the Future
Oct 30 – Cris Sheridan welcomes Richard Duncan, Chief Economist at Blackhorse Asset Management in Singapore. Richard makes the case that since 2008 credit in the U.S. has been growing at less than 2% a year and the Fed has been printing money to create a wealth effect in financial assets in order to sustain the economy.
Satyajit Das: The Economies of Europe and Japan Are Not Working
Emerging Market Countries Are Also Slowing
Oct 29 – Jim welcomes Satyajit Das, Author, Journalist and Commentator at EconoMonitor.com. They cover the global macro outlook, and Das sees inflexible economic and political structures in Europe and Japan leading to stagnating growth prospects.
David Marsh: Europe Unlikely to Launch Full-Scale QE With Bonds Near Record Highs
Beneficial Tailwinds From the U.S.
Oct 28 – Cris Sheridan welcomes back David Marsh, Managing Director and Co-Founder of OMFIF (Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum) in London. David explains how the ECB is unlikely to launch a full-scale QE program in Europe with bonds near record highs. The ECB and Bundesbank don't want to run the risk of...
Puru Saxena: Bull Market Could Be Over, But Don't Get Too Bearish Since Central Banks Will Likely Step In
Investors Positioning for Another Deflationary Scare
Oct 17 – Cris Sheridan welcomes Puru Saxena, founder of Puru Saxena Limited in Hong Kong, and publisher of Money Matters. Puru sees this bull market as mature, where a lot of stocks are no longer participating. Market breadth has narrowed considerably and 60-65% of NYSE stocks are now in a bear phase.
Brian Pretti: We Are Long Overdue for a 10% Correction – Is This It?
Currencies Are Pressure Relief Valves
Oct 15 – Jim welcomes back Brian Pretti CFA, Managing Editor at ContraryInvestor.com. Brian and Jim cover an array of macroeconomic issues. Brian noted that a 10% market correction is substantially overdue. So far, the pull-back has been moderate, but certain sectors have had more severe damage, such as...
Didier Sornette: Using Math and Supercomputers to Predict Financial Bubbles
Explaining the Math Behind Market Bubbles
Oct 14 – Cris Sheridan welcomes Didier Sornette, Professor at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, Switzerland. Professor Sornette explains the math behind bubbles and how he and a number of colleagues at the Financial Crisis Observatory in ETH Zurich are using one of the world’s...
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: 2016-2017 - The Next Perfect Financial Storm
Also, “Fed Funds Rate Cycle, Phase 1 - Why Markets Are Correcting” and “A Sneak Peak at Q3 Earnings”
Oct 11 – This week Jim discusses the timeframe for the next financial storm on the horizon. A confluence of factors and events point to the period after the presidential elections of 2016, including rising interest rates, growing government debt, geopolitical turmoil and war, and the rising cost of Obamacare on consumers.
Don Coxe: 2014 – The Year of Geopolitics – A More Dangerous World
Bond Market Telling Us No Growth, No Inflation Ahead
Oct 10 – Jim welcomes back Don Coxe, Chairman of Coxe Advisors. In a wide-ranging geopolitical and global macro discussion, Don notes that the U.S. economy has picked up, but optimism has not. They discuss the wide array of geopolitical events this year that have made...
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Trouble in the Oil Patch
Also, “Hong Kong - Significance for the Financial Markets” and “Time to Panic?”
Oct 4 – The first topic this week is “Trouble in the Oil Patch”. Jim looks at the weakness in oil prices over the last few months. He discusses seasonal factors, and the recent strength in the dollar. He sees the weakness lasting another month or so, but the weather forecast for a very cold winter will likely change that trend as the demand for energy ramps up.
Marc Chandler: Be Prepared - Dollar May Climb for Several Years
Dollar-Euro Parity May Be a 2016 Story
Oct 2 – Cris Sheridan welcomes back Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. Marc discusses the key long-term drivers that may push the dollar higher for several years and how this will affect investors and...
Urban Carmel: Late ‘90s Tech Bubble a Unique Event – Unlikely to Happen Again
Euphoria of the 1990s Grew From Political and Demographic Events, Both in the U.S. and Abroad
Oct 1 – Cris Sheridan welcomes analyst Urban Carmel. During the historic tech bubble of the late 1990s, stock valuations soared far higher than ever before. With stocks today already above historical averages, could we expect to see the same level of euphoria happen again, driving stocks two or three times higher from where they stand today?
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: LEIs Signaling a Soft Patch Ahead
Also, “Paid to Adapt, Not Forecast”
Sep 27 – Jim’s first Big Picture topic is about the Leading Economic Indicators (LEIs) and why they are signaling a soft patch ahead. They indicate weakness in housing, mortgage applications and durable goods. Jim discusses the reasons behind the soft patch and why it will likely be temporary.
Carlota Perez on Technological Revolutions, Manias, Bubbles, and Golden Ages
Cris Sheridan welcomes Carlota Perez to discuss the findings of her widely read book, “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages.” As she explains, technological revolutions aren’t random but occur on average every 60 years...
Martin Armstrong: War Cycle to Begin by 2016
International Capital Concentrating on U.S. Assets
Jim welcomes back Martin Armstrong, of ArmstrongEconomics.com. Martin and Jim cover a wide array of macroeconomic and geopolitical topics. Martin sees the US becoming more isolated, as it continues to anger its traditional allies, and forcing Russia and China to begin working together again.
MIT’s Roberto Rigobon on the True Rate of Inflation
Is the Government Manipulating the Data?
Cris Sheridan welcomes Roberto Rigobon, Professor of Applied Economics at the MIT’s Sloan School of Management. They discuss the Billion Prices Project, started at MIT by Rigobon and fellow professor Alberto Cavallo. By using automated web scraping technology, the Billion Prices Project collects and tracks more than 1 billion prices each week...
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: The Endgame – The Grand Finale and The Meltdown
Also, “The Assault on Monopolies – Disruption & Transformation”
Sep 13 – Jim’s first Big Picture topic this week deals with where we are in the market cycle, close to the top, or heading higher? Jim lays out the case that macro forces favor higher stock prices for an extended period. He looks at where we may be in this bull market, and makes historical comparisons to the bull market of the 1990’s.
Market volatility and the breakdown of fundamental and technical indicators are only a few signs. There are others which are more subtle and not visible to the human eye—below the surface. They show up in bear-o-metric readings of the nation's money supply, credit expansion and the breakdown of corporate earnings. With all of these readings, we know that a storm is coming. The question is: "What kind will it be?"
—Jim Puplava, The Perfect Financial Storm Part 3