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RUSSIA'S
G8 STRATEGY "...a terrorist doing work for spetsnaz does not, in the great majority of cases, suspect he is being used. He is utterly convinced that he is acting independently, of his own free will and by his own choice.” - Viktor Suvorov, Spetsnaz, 1987 Is it possible to get what you want by behaving badly? Consider the recent dispute between Russia and America over missile defense in Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned NATO against deploying a missile defense system for Europe, saying this deployment was intended to disarm Russia. His warning carried the urgency of pointed menace. If NATO puts missile defenses into Poland and the Czech Republic, says Putin, then Russia has no choice but to train its missiles on European capitals. Such a turn of events might even lead to a nuclear war. The guilt of the United States was clear in this matter, Putin said. Talk of the missiles being sited to stop future Iranian missiles is palpable nonsense. The Russian leader knows, full well, that he is slandering his naïve American counterpart. He is distorting the facts and lying about intentions. This sudden, vicious, outburst was carefully considered in advance, and brilliantly executed. It must be noted that President Putin did not pursue the quiet diplomatic route. He did not meet with Bush behind closed doors, venting his paranoid estimation of American intentions out of the earshot of an impressionable world. He wanted the world to hear his complaint. He wanted to rally anti-American sentiment. But also, he needed to get the West’s attention. Throughout the 1990s the Russians intentionally depicted themselves as economically backward and militarily defunct. They used the poverty of Russia as an advertisement of “defeat.” This portrayal had a profound effect on American attitudes toward Russia. Moscow was no longer taken seriously. And this is what the Russian leadership wanted. When Gorbachev began to work his magic, the Russians boldly announced their intention of “taking away America’s enemy.” The “Russian threat” must seem to disappear. It was the success of this propaganda campaign that led the Americans to drop their guard, to give up the Cold War. On the other side, however, Russia did not give up the Cold War. She used the interval of relaxed tensions and open trade to renew her vast military industries which now threaten to produce the world’s most advanced nuclear missiles, warheads, grenades, rifles, submarines and fighter jets. If America is the arsenal of democracy, Russia is now the arsenal of dictatorship – feeding weapons to every rogue regime from Iran and Venezuela to North Korea and China. The image of Russian weakness, however, has stuck in the Western mind – in the American mind especially. So what happens when the Russians wish to be taken seriously? To get President Bush’s attention, Vladimir Putin must make the most hostile, strident and disturbing statements. These amount to a kind of psychological shock tactic – which is seen differently in Russia and Third World than in the West. Those who envy the West and fear its power are inclined to see Putin’s outburst as a courageous act of defiance. But Western leaders are confused by it, and an almost humorous exploitation of this confusion necessarily follows. What is at the bottom of this? The Russians want to undermine and destroy American power. They must therefore strive to keep America from playing a decisive role in Europe’s defense. Since America has played such a role for decades, it is vitally important that America be diverted away from defending Europe, toward an unproductive involvement in the Middle East. This is the very real and very secret policy of the Kremlin. The significance of U.S. defensive missiles in Europe is political, not military. The missiles themselves could never be effective against Russian weapons. They are powerful political symbols. So how does Putin’s outrageous, threatening demeanor, divide Europe from America? The answer is ridiculously simple. By threatening the equilibrium of the post Cold War setup, Putin forces the American president to take him seriously and entertain a series of bizarre proposals that otherwise would never be entertained. For a renewed Cold War is hardly acceptable to Washington or the capitals of Europe. To defuse the situation that he himself has created, Putin only has to offer a seemingly reasonable solution, which will be clutched at. But the solution will prove dangerous, and it will lead to further “solutions.” Think of the effect that has been created. On the eve of the G8 summit the Russian leader has taken center stage. You can rest assured that his performance will be strictly choreographed. He will propose that Russia, in cooperation with America and Europe, undertake Europe’s defense. This proposal may evolve over time, and has already appeared in its most outrageous, early version. (This will make later versions seem less outrageous.) As of this writing Putin and Bush have met, and the Russian leader has suggested basing Europe’s missile defense in Azerbaijan. The U.S. could easily place its missiles there, on “former” Soviet soil, with two additional conditions: (1) all sides would have “equal access” to the weapon system; (2) the system’s development would be transparent. This diplomatic proposal is bound to bear fruit, one way or another. President Bush was greatly relieved that the Russian president had opened the door to reduced tensions. The Russian was, after all, only joking about missiles targeted on Europe (as if he couldn’t dial up the targets in an instant, any day of the week). And so, the Americans are relieved. There is nothing to fear. We are “friends” with Russia after all. How grand. How nice. Let the experts look at the Russian proposal. If Europe can be defended by ABMs based in the “former” Soviet Union, what possible objection could Washington offer? Any rejection of the Russian proposal would raise the suspicion that Putin was justified in his initial declarations regarding American wickedness and deceit. But madam secretary, you have missed the entire point. Russia knows it cannot launch a threat at Europe that is separable from the United States. That is why Russia has so carefully formulated an attack aimed at America that bypasses Europe altogether, leaving it neutral and untouched (and defended by Russia herself!). This idea, unfortunately, does not occur to the Secretary of State because she is not a strategist. Her training has been academic, and her approach is academic. When she says that Vladimir Putin’s threatening remarks aren’t helpful, it all depends on who is being helped. In this situation, President Putin’s slanderous remarks against the United States serve to raise the moral of the Communist forces in Colombia; he signals his solidarity with Hugo Chavez in Venezuela; he thrills the African Communists in Congo, Angola, Zimbabwe, Namibia and South Africa. The lunatics in Tehran regard his utterances as masterstrokes. But the Americans will quickly forget Putin’s harsh words because they want to forget. They will rush forward to appease, and he will smile and joke once they’ve delivered themselves into his hands. He knows there isn’t a plot to disarm Russia. The Americans don’t even bother to enforce existing arms control agreements, which Russia routinely ignores. He knows that America isn’t building missile defenses that can stop Russian missiles. He is free, therefore, to build his forces and rally his allies. He has already described the Russian Federation as the surviving remnant of the Soviet Union. He has stated this on Russian television, before cameras; and he has also said that America is Russia’s enemy. This has occurred on more than one occasion, and has been a theme of Putin’s speeches since June 22, 2001, when he first compared America to Nazi Germany. Russia’s new missiles did not spring out of the ground yesterday. They were not built in reaction to American “aggression.” A new type of missile takes many years to develop. During these same years, America has been reducing its own missile forces. The United States Congress has cut nuclear programs. America’s nuclear arsenal has been shrinking, and will continue to shrink. The Russian arsenal is becoming more effective. They pretend that these new missiles were built in reaction to American missile defenses. But that is merely a cover, an excuse for war preparations. The Russians have the best spies in the world, and these have undoubtedly penetrated the U.S. defense establishment and political hierarchy. Putin therefore knows, perfectly well, that America harbors no evil intentions; that America is hardly engaged in an arms race with Russia. Putin’s slanderous outburst, replete with mock outrage and play-acted alarm, was pure theater. The whole episode has been a provocation. Today the Russian president disclaims responsibility for
his “retaliatory steps.” Tomorrow he will blame the annihilation of entire countries and regions on the imperialist American warmongers and capitalists. In between these utterances, he will make nice with his enemy in order to destroy that same enemy. If this is not perfectly clear, then nothing can be. © 2007 Jeffrey
R. Nyquist
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