The Logic of Nuclear Proliferation
by J. R. Nyquist
Weekly Column Published: 10.19.2007
PrintWe can look back and see the past. But who can see the future? The way ahead is often very different than we imagine. The past is firmly set, known to memory and accessible to reflection. The future, into which we plunge day to day, is a question mark. We crave certainty about the future. We seek answers that will calm our fears and reassure our hopes. To this end men and women throughout history have sought the advice of astrologers, seers and psychics. They have consulted oracles. On the more scientific side the quantifiers have measured increases and decreases in population, wealth and opinion, sometimes giving the impression that change advances continuously and steadily in the same direction.
It is well known that the world’s population has been increasing at an exponential rate for centuries. If we have six billion people today, we will have 12 billion in another decade or two, and 24 billion a decade after that. Some observers, noting the approach of peak oil, doubt we will ever see such population increases. The student of mass destruction weaponry, with an eye to World War II and the holocaust, would not be surprised at a large and sudden decrease in the world’s population. In fact, a sudden turn toward decimation and global impoverishment is much more likely than 12 billion human beings living in peace and plenty. Such a view, of course, goes against a longstanding belief in progress. The believers in progress imagine that each generation will be smarter, wealthier, more peaceful, more democratic and freer than those immediately before them. They forget that progress brought us the atom bomb, and the atom bomb must inevitably fall into the hands of madmen.
I will no doubt receive letters of complaint from readers insisting that President George W. Bush is a madman. They will ask why I didn’t take the opportunity to point this out. Well, it is sufficient to say that madmen are often drawn to politics and to nuclear weapons. Envy-ridden ideology leads the way in political madness, and a national inferiority complex may push the leadership of a country to contemplate a nuclear war that otherwise would be unthinkable. The Religion of Progress forms no barrier to such contemplations. Therefore, the way has long been paved for a sudden change in global demographic trends. The approach of this change has given many signs. Decade after decade, Americans have ignored these signs.
Russia is continuing nuclear war exercises aimed at the United States. China is making open war preparations. Iran seeks to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran’s leaders talk openly of wiping Israel out of existence. Can anyone see what all this signifies? A destructive war is on the horizon. But we refuse to take the danger seriously. Where is your bomb shelter? Where is your gas mask? How much food have you put away? America is not ready, even if you are. The Shopping Mall Regime and its Cult of Obligatory Economic Optimism cannot be opposed. Americans know, of course, there will be recessions and economic troubles. Nevertheless, we expect that the great economic machine will thrive and the general trend will be toward growth and not decline. Such are the maxims of Obligatory Economic Optimism. Such is our faith in the Shopping Mall Regime.
A few days ago President Bush made a chilling statement. He said that if we wanted to avoid World War III we must not allow the current Iranian government to acquire nuclear weapons. He spoke from the conviction that Islamic fundamentalists with nuclear weapons cannot be checked by the threat of retaliation. A faith that sanctifies suicide bombers might be expected to sanctify a suicidal nuclear exchange. What nobody wants to hear, and nobody will say, is that the situation is much worse than President Bush imagines. More than half a century ago the Russians acquired nuclear weapons. In 1964 China became a nuclear power. While the nuclear martyrdom of an Islamic nation is to be feared, the rational use of nuclear weapons by Russia and China is even more likely. If a nuclear bomb were detonated in New York we would not be able to prove that Moscow or Beijing conspired in the attack; especially if Iran and North Korea possess nuclear weapons.
America can be attacked anonymously. The enemies of America know this to be true; therefore they want nuclear weapons technology to spread throughout the world. When New York and Washington are destroyed, nobody will know who ordered the attack. In that event retaliation will be impossible. Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) will be a thing of the past. The generals in Moscow and Beijing are working out a strategy based on the knowledge that America is defenseless; for America’s strategy has been based on a doctrine of massive retaliation.
The helplessness of the United States is increasingly obvious. In the long run the Americans cannot prevent the spread of nuclear technology. President Bush points to Iran and warns the world. But notice how helpless President Bush has become in recent months. Notice the paralysis in Washington. The American businessman will not support Bush’s policy. The Shopping Mall Regime believes in peace and economic prosperity. It will not prepare for war and economic decline (peak oil). It will not approve the construction of bomb shelters or tightened border security.
We are stuck.
Copyright © 2007 Jeffrey R. Nyquist
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