Technician Tom McClellan of The McClellan Market Report shares two charts with the Financial Sense Newshour on what he sees with current gold cycles and the daily gold lease rates.
The Fundamentals For Precious Metals Haven’t Changed
Jim welcomes back Ross Hansen, founder of Northwest Territorial Mint, now the largest private mint in the US. Ross discusses the recent high demand for physical precious metals, and notes that the fundamentals of the market have not changed. At the moment, there is a shortage of product, specifically gold and silver coins. Ross advises to not pay the current higher premiums on coins, but just buy the rounds or bullion. He sees the “fast money” crowd trading in and out of the paper gold market, but the demand for physical precious metals continues to rise. Jim and Ross also discuss the current situation in Cyprus.
Recent Whiff of Deflation, But Plenty of Money Floating Around to Create Inflation
Jim welcomes back Eoin Treacy, Global Strategist at Fullermoney, a division of Stockcube Research Ltd. in London. Eoin is favorable toward US markets, noting contracting P/E’s and rising dividend yields on US stocks. He believes the US has an advantage over other countries, and sees US multinational stocks leveraged to the global economy as the best place to invest. Bond investors are reluctant to change their strategy, and Eoin doesn’t see them moving into stocks until they start losing money in bonds.
Doha - The first Peak Oil conference initiated by Gulf State oil producers
Jim is pleased to welcome back Dr. Robert Hirsch, Senior Energy Advisor at Management Information Services Inc. and an authority on Peak Oil. Dr. Hirsch has just returned from an historic peak oil conference in Doha, Qatar, the first ever initiated by Gulf State oil producers. Dr. Hirsch believes there will be a “sea change” coming to the Middle East, once peak oil is reached. The timing of its arrival is difficult to predict, but it will likely be sooner than the global economy is prepared for. He makes the point that most people don’t understand that peak oil is a “liquid fuel problem”, and thus wind and solar technology will never solve the problem. Dr. Hirsch also sees the current projections of future US energy independence as “pure fiction”.
Japan ready to unleash a tsunami of money globally
Jim is pleased to welcome back Brian Pretti CFA, Managing Editor at ContraryInvestor.com. Brian says to brace yourself for the flight of global capital coming into the US later this year. For now, all roads lead to the dollar. Brian believes the first wave will come from capital fleeing both Europe and Asia. Brian and Jim also discuss the new Japanese monetary policy and how this will unleash a flood of cheap money on the globe. This will encourage sophisticated investors to borrow in Japan, invest in the US, and pay back the loan in cheaper Yen, increasing the return substantially.
Special Guest: Dr. Bonnie Olsen on Elder Financial Fraud and Abuse
This week Jim and Cathlyn use the case study of Joe and Irene Turner to illustrate several issues facing today’s retirees. These issues include Long Term Care and medical expenses, fear of the financial markets, inflation, the difficulty of maintaining quality of life in a 0% interest rate environment and reconciling budgets versus sources of income. The guest this week is Dr. Bonnie Olsen of the National Center on Elder Abuse at UC Irvine. Dr. Olsen discusses financial fraud and abuse on the elderly and how to avoid it.
Also, “The Dividend Story Keeps Getting Better, Better and Better”
In this segment of the Big Picture, Jim looks at two stock related topics. In “Drop, Pop and a Melt-up in the Stock Market”, Jim discusses the idea that the next stock market melt-up will be caused by the flight of global capital coming into the US from both Asia and Europe. In the next topic, “The Dividend Story keeps getting Better, Better and Better”, Jim looks at the reasons why to own dividend-paying equities, and the trend of growing dividend pay-outs in the first quarter of 2013. Jim will also answer your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.
Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Fast and Furious- Paper Gold vs. Physical Gold - The Real Story Behind Gold’s Decline
Kathryn Derbes of KDerbes Precious Metals LLC - “We’re Completely Out of Silver Eagles - They’re Gone”
In this segment of the Big Picture Jim looks at the large decline in gold and silver, and gets into the reasons behind the carnage, as well as the huge difference between “physical gold & silver” and “paper gold & silver”. Jim notes that investors should know why they own gold, understand it, and then leave it alone. Also, Kathy Derbes CFA, and CEO of KDerbes Precious Metals LLC, joins Jim in this segment. She notes the current record buying of physical precious metals, last seen during the Lehman crisis, and says her firm is “completely out” of Silver Eagles. Kathy is not even taking orders for more Eagles, as it may take six to eight weeks or more to acquire them.
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income
Jim is pleased to welcome back legendary technician Ralph Acampora, Director of Tactical Investments at Altaira Wealth Management. Ralph sees the market in a corrective mode, which could last a month or so. He notes divergences in the Transports and the DAX. He sees the US and Japan as the best places to invest, and believes the secular bull is still in the early stages. However, Ralph sees the bond bull-market in the 9th inning of its long 30 year run. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava wraps up this week in the markets, Erik Townsend discusses gold and commodities, and Rob Bernard looks at bonds and interest rates in the Fixed Income Report.
How Safe Is Your Bank Account?
Jim welcomes Simon Mikhailovich, Co-Founder of Eidesis Capital LLC in New York City. Jim and Simon cover a number of topics, including gold, why people should own it, and the difference between paper and physical gold. Simon also discusses the safety of your bank accounts in the future as governments look at the “Cyprus Model”, including the US. Simon talks about the coming “wealth taxes” in Europe, as governments desperately search for revenue amidst weakening economies. Simon calls gold “the most under-owned asset class in the world” and believes the real bull market in gold has not yet begun.
Wall Street’s Lobbying Machine vs. The Individual Investor
Jim welcomes back Dave Lauer, a Market Structure and Technology Architecture Consultant. His most recent work includes public policy with Better Markets and technology architecture with IEX, a new equity market. Previously, he worked as a senior quantitative analyst at Allston Trading and Citadel Investment Group. Dave believes the cops (regulators) are not on the beat, and this puts individual investors at a distinct disadvantage. He sees HFT traders as manipulators of the market without fear of punishment. Dave says the “uptick rule” must be reinstated to protect the individual investor, but the Wall Street lobbying machine convinces both regulators and legislators that it isn’t necessary. With money and influence on their side, the Robo Traders are becoming the Robber Barons of the 21st century.
Less of a possibility of a Summer Swoon than in previous years
Jim welcomes Dwaine Van Vuuren, CEO at Recession Alert in South Africa. Dwaine is a full-time trader specializing in real-time recession dating models. According to his models and index, Dwaine sees no recession in sight for the US. His long leading growth index shows moderate expansion ahead, and his investment models say to stay 100% invested a present. Of the ten models Dwaine follows, only two have any warning of future slowing.
Energy stocks outside the US are down and opportunities abound
Jim welcomes back Kurt Wulff CFA, Independent Energy Analyst at McDep LLC. Kurt and Jim discuss energy equities today and Kurt sees Exxon as the Rodney Dangerfield of oil stocks, not getting the respect it deserves. He sees XOM as a must-own anchor of any energy portfolio. Kurt also discusses other energy equities, such as Encana and Suncor. He notes that Encana is a potential takeover target, perhaps by the Chinese. Energy stocks outside the US have been down lately, and Kurt sees many value opportunities in the energy sector.
Special Guest: Attorney Tom Collett Discusses Tax-efficient Business Planning
In this week’s edition Jim and Cathlyn discuss the function of bonds in a portfolio, and how to evaluate them. They go over bond basics such as maturity date, coupon yield and current yield, as well as identifying the main bond risks. Jim explains the primary functions of a bond in a portfolio allocation, as well as how to assess the performance of bonds within a portfolio. They also reiterate the important difference between a bond and a bond fund. The guest this week is Tom Collett, Senior Attorney at Standard Retirement Services, Inc. in Cincinnati, Ohio. Tom will discuss tax-efficient business planning.
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Chris Puplava on Gold, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income
Jim welcomes back Craig Johnson CMT CFA, a Principal and Senior Technical Research Analyst at Piper Jaffray. Craig sees the S&P reaching 1700 by years end, although he notes that investors are still skeptical and only reluctantly long. Craig sees the next great catalyst to launch the market higher will be the shift from bonds and bond funds into stocks, as interest rates begin to climb. Also this week, Ryan Puplava wraps up this week in the markets, and Chris Puplava joins the program to discuss the volatile gold market. Rob Bernard looks at interest rates and the fixed income market this week.
Also on the Big Picture, “Gold - The Final Maalox Moment - I Want To Hold Your Hand”
This week on the Big Picture Jim looks at two important topics, the Dow and Gold. In the first topic, Jim puts this week’s record highs in the Dow Jones index in context and offers his analysis on current stock valuations. In the next topic, Jim discusses if this week’s washout in gold is the final “Maalox Moment”. He also looks closely at gold leasing as one of the key culprits behind the severe selling pressure. Jim’s characterization of the gold leasing market can be summarized in the following question: “It’s 12 O’clock- Do you know where your gold is?”
Newspeak Terms - The Main Stream Media as Orwellian Mouthpiece
Jim’s Big Picture topic this segment focuses on the recent budget “negotiations” going on in Washington. Jim pulls back the curtain on Washington’s budget games and gives his perspective on the current budget process. Jim sees it as 21st century feudalism, as budgetary policies favor big government and big business over small business, which has always been the engine for job creation. He also takes the main stream media to task for allowing Washington to use “Orwellian Newspeak” to describe the budgetary process. Jim will also answer your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.
There Is No Hard Currency Left But Gold
Jim is pleased to welcome back Grant Williams, Portfolio & Strategy Advisor at Vulpes Investment Management in Singapore, and author of the popular investment letter, “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…”. Grant discusses the recent policy change in Japan, which is now printing massive amounts of Yen to raise inflation and weaken the currency. Grant notes that it didn’t work in the 1930’s for Japan, and it won’t work this time. He does see a coming Asian currency war in response however. Grant also speaks in some detail about gold and gold equities. He believes the world is struggling with accepting gold as a currency. But Grant notes that at some point deficits matter and excessive money printing will eventually drive the price of gold significantly higher.
US Tax Code Favors Outsourcing of Production Overseas
Jim welcomes Ramesh Ponnuru, Bloomberg columnist and visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Ramesh discusses an article he wrote about a proposal from US Congressman Devin Nunes to incentivize American and foreign business to invest in the US through a new approach Nunes calls a “business consumption tax”. It would treat all businesses the same, and instead of taxing their income, it would tax their cash flow.
Long-term secular trend signals higher corporate productivity but less jobs in the future
Jim welcomes back Barry Ritholtz, CEO and Director of Equity Research at Fusion IQ, an online quantitative research firm. Barry discusses how the many economic “crises” today are overblown and essentially driven by the media and Washington. Barry sees the vast majority of “news” today as simply gossip. As to stocks, Barry believes they are not as cheap as 3 years ago, but still reasonably priced. He much prefers the dividend theme to stock buy-backs by corporations. Barry also discussed a long term secular trend in demographic changes that will be a negative for employment longer term, as increasingly more productive companies need fewer workers to stay profitable.