Also, John Kaiser examines gold and silver cycles since 1970.
Louise Yamada CMT provides insights on the Dow/Gold ratio from 1979 to present as well as Japan Nikkei 225 monthly activity since 1989. John Kaiser provides the Financial Sense Newshour with global gdp and military spending and the boom and bust bubbles of gold and silver since 1970.
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities and Jim Puplava on Fixed Income
Jim is pleased to welcome noted technician Louise Yamada CMT, Managing Director of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors. Louise sees a short-term consolidation ahead, and thinks the markets are ready for a pause (click here for charts). She sees a 5-10% decline as not out of line. She admits monetary policy by the Fed is a big factor in today’s stock market. On gold, Louise believes the technical factors don’t look good at the present, with distribution taking place. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend covers commodities, and Jim Puplava has this week’s Fixed Income Report, sitting in for Rob Bernard.
How the value of the dollar influences inflation
Jim welcomes Professor Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. Professor Hanke is also a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C. Jim and Professor Hanke discuss his recent article “Hyperinflation? No. Inflation? Yes.” He sees better growth ahead in the second half, perhaps as high as 3%, but also growing inflation as well. Professor Hanke notes that the US has had periods of high inflation in its history, including the Civil War, but never hyperinflation. He does not believe we will see it in the US in the foreseeable future.
Wait for the Seasonally Weak Summer Period to Buy in the Ag Sector
Jim welcomes back Ned Schmidt CFA, Publisher of The Value View Gold & The Agri-Food Value View Reports. Ned discusses the top performing commodities in 2013: oats, cotton, eggs and butter. He notes that the global population keeps growing and everyone needs to eat. Ned also discusses his four “Best of Class” stocks in the agriculture sector. He advises not to buy them now, but wait until the seasonally weak summer period, when prices will likely be lower. Ned also discusses how he got into studying and writing about the agriculture sector. It turns out it was a play on China.
The US, Japan and the UK will drive gold prices higher
Jim welcomes back Axel Merk, founder and portfolio manager at Merk Investments LLC. This week Axel discusses some of the downside of currency wars, including a loss of competitiveness in domestic economies, growing social unrest, and in extreme cases, war. Axel also sees the Eurozone as less capable of debasing its currency than other countries, which will ultimately strengthen the Euro. He sees gold in a transition phase, but believes that the US, Japan and the UK will drive gold prices higher eventually.
Bernanke’s Message to Investors: Get Out of Cash
Jim is pleased to welcome back Don Coxe, Chairman at Coxe Advisors LLP. Don sees an emerging shale oil and natural gas boom in the US, which will make it a cheaper place to do business. He sees American ingenuity overcoming government interference. As to commodities, he sees a rally in the dollar impacting commodity prices short term, but he lays out the fundamental case why commodity prices will rise in the longer term. Don doesn’t see the Euro as a viable alternative to the dollar, as Europe’s problems mount. Lastly he notes that Ben Bernanke’s implicit message to investors is “get out of cash”.
Special Guest: Attorney Roberta Robinson on Tax Planning Strategies
In this week’s edition, Jim and Cathlyn discuss the reasons to formulate retirement and estate plans early, and why this can be very beneficial later on in retirement. They look at a case study and offer specific solutions for creating a more successful retirement. The guest this week is attorney Roberta Robinson, who speaks about tax planning for the “not-quite-1%-ers” and discusses specific tax planning strategies. Roberta is well known for her ability to explain complex ideas in a clear manner.
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income
Jim welcomes back David Nicoski CMT, Director of Research at Vermilion Technical Research LLC. David sees no sign of a top, with financials, energy and industrials doing very well and the transports confirming the uptrend. He believes that blue chip stocks are still cheap, and US economic growth is right now the best on the planet. Also, Ryan Puplava has this week’s market update, Erik Townsend and Jim discuss commodities, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Also, "Reasons For Baby Boomers to be Baby Gloomers in Retirement"
In the first Big Picture topic this week, Jim looks at the Federal Reserve’s exit strategy from its extreme low interest rate policy. Jim lays out the reasons why rates will not likely rise anytime soon, and then only slowly. This is of course bad news for any investors in cash, hoping for higher interest rates. In the next Big Picture topic, Jim explains the many reasons why the retirement system is vastly different for the Baby Boomers than the World War II generation that preceded them. Taken in total, the evidence points to a gloomy retirement ahead for many Baby Boomers. Jim also answers some of your Q-Calls in this segment.
Jim's Big Picture: Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome: Why We Do't Need Armageddon for Gold Prices to Head Higher
Also on the Big Picture: On the Record with Jim Puplava and John Loeffler
In this segment Jim gives his reasoning why gold prices can head higher without a crisis situation, or economic Armageddon. Jim sees many fundamental economic factors that could push gold and commodities higher, without the need for an “end of the world” scenario. The next topic is “On The Record”, as Jim is interviewed by John on a wide range of topics, including his macro views, investment topics and the content of the program. Jim also answers more of your Q-Calls in this segment of the program.
Major price and RS reversal in natural gas. Also, Erik Townsend touches upon consolidation patterns impacting the gold price.
Debunking the Alternate CPI As a Valid Metric
Jim welcomes Doug Short, VP of Research at Advisor Perspectives. Doug sees the US markets as having room to grow and are above trend. He also discusses the Alternate CPI statistics, which Doug believes do not add up, and are out of sync with reality. Given the alternate CPI inflation levels, Doug notes that the current S&P 500 would be considerably more undervalued than in 1982. However, he notes that it still feels like a recession, since comsumer income has not kept up with inflation. Median household income is down 8.4% since 2000. This is among the reasons that many investors are scared, and remaining on the sidelines.
Mexico Is Becoming the “New China” for the US Market
Jim is pleased to welcome back Jeffrey Saut, Managing Director of Research at Raymond James Financial. Jeff believes we have started a new secular bull market, but calls the stock market advance the “most hated rally in half a century”. Jeff notes that the support for the rally comes from a number of factors including central bank stimulus, low interest rates, strength in housing and autos, and improvement in the employment picture. He also mentions that the world is currently underinvested in US equities. Jeff makes an interesting observation about Mexico, both in terms of its labor situation and railroad transportation to the US, calling it the “New China” for US markets.
As Long As Central Banks Are Printing Money, You Have to Be in Stocks
Jim welcomes Puru Saxena, Editor and Founder of Money Matters and Puru Saxena Limited in Hong Kong. Puru believes that the Chinese real estate bubble is on the verge of a major bust, which will not bode well for China, or Asia. He believes the thirteen year bear market in stocks is over, and a multiple year bull market in equities has begun, especially in the US. Puru sees the dollar as the most liquid and secure currency in the world and does not foresee a dollar crisis. Due to supply and demand factors, he does not favor commodities, as prices will be under pressure in the near to medium term.
Available Global Net Oil Exports Continue to Decline, Outpacing Gains in US Oil Production
Jim welcomes Jeffrey Brown, Independent Petroleum Geologist, creator of the Export Land Model, and ASPO-USA Board Member. Jeffrey explains his Export Land Model, and reviews the major trends regarding availability of oil exports on the world market. Jeffrey also looks at the growing tension between oil production and the rising internal demand of oil-producing nations as well as China, India, and other emerging economies. His overall thesis is that the US oil industry continues to make a serious mistake by providing, in his opinion, wildly unrealistic scenarios for future US and global crude oil production.
Special Guest: Ben Kwon, Corporate Tax Specialist, On Structuring a Business
This week Jim and Cathlyn discuss Doomsday portfolios, mostly cash and gold, and suggest that investors look at potential outcomes and consider diversifying their assets. They discuss historical disasters and note what worked best, and also look at what would likely happen in a dollar crash. Jim and Cathlyn discuss a more balanced approach, one that would still offer protection, but also participate in market advances. In the next section of the program, Jim speaks with Ben Kwon, an expert on how to structure a business. This is great information for those considering starting a small business and wondering if they should incorporate, and if so, what form it should take.
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-Up, Erik Townsend on Commodities and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income
This week Erik Townsend sits in for Jim and welcomes technician Tracy Knudsen CMT, Senior Vice President & Senior Analyst at Lowry Research Corporation. Tracy notes that despite some short-term risks to the market, she has a strongly bullish long-term outlook for the stock market. In addition, John Loeffler discusses the this week’s market with Ryan Puplava, commodities with Erik Townsend, and fixed income with Rob Bernard.
Also on the Big Picture: “Triple Top or New Secular Bull Market?” and “Still Waiting For Armageddon?”
In this week’s edition of the Big Picture, Erik Townsend and Ryan Puplava sit in for Jim and discuss three different topics. The first, “The Significance of Cyprus- US Dollar on the cusp of a surprise?” deals with the events in Cyprus in the context of helping to stregthen the US dollar. Combining this banking fiasco with central banking printing around the globe, the US dollar looks primed to stregthen, which most do not expect. They discuss the implications for stocks, gold and commodities if this were to happen. In the next Big Picture topic, “Triple Top or New Secular Bull Market?”, Erik and Ryan discuss the issue, and make distinctions between economic recovery and stock market strength. In the last topic, “Still Waiting for Armageddon?” Erik and Ryan look at those still waiting for a disaster in their “bunker”, and stress that no matter when, or if, the calamity arrives, investors need to have a financial plan in place and not be paralyzed by fear. They also discuss the possibility that there could be a bond market melt-down, but that stocks might benefit.
These 2 graphs are to illustrate that a healthy primary uptrend in US equities remains in place, despite the potential for a correction...
Global QE Makes the Dollar Look Relatively More Attractive
Jim welcomes back Douglas Noland, Senior Portfolio Manager at Federated Investors Inc. Doug sees the global government finance bubble as the next crisis epicenter. He believes the US has exported the finance bubble and today QE by central banks around the world make the dollar more attractive by comparison. Doug also sees the German people taking a harder line against bailouts in Europe, leaving their government in a bind. He believes that US bank depositors are also at risk of confiscation, by inflation.