Industrial Demand The Biggest Driver Of Silver – 80% Of Silver Is Consumed
Jim welcomes First Majestic Silver Corp. President & CEO Keith Neumeyer this week. Keith sees the company moving from 9 to 16 million ounces of production by 2014, and on the way to becoming a major silver producer. Keith also emphasized that 80-85% of silver is consumed, and industrial demand is now the biggest driver of silver, not monetary demand. He noted that the technology sector alone is now a major driver of silver demand. Looking ahead, Keith believes that a squeeze is coming in the silver market, where demand will outstrip available supply.
Bond Vigilantes May Begin Testing the Resolve of Central Banks in 2013
Brian Pretti CFA of ContraryInvestor.com joins Jim again this week. Brian sees 2013 as an inflection point for Quantitative Easing (QE), noting that if you stretch a rubber band long enough, it eventually breaks. Brian believes the final end-game of the Debt Super Cycle is nearly at hand, when governments will be forced to deleverage. He thinks the bond market may begin to show some vulnerability as the “bond vigilantes” begin to test the resolve of the major central banks.
The metals need “money velocity” for ignition
Jim welcomes back David Morgan of The Morgan Report. David mentions that both gold and silver prices got “ahead of themselves” in 2011, hence the long consolidation period since. He believes that this “scare you out, wear you out” phase is coming to an end, and higher prices are ahead. David acknowledges that QE takes time to work its way through markets, and for significantly higher prices, the velocity of money in the system must pick up. David sees a volatile year for the metals, and expects silver to re-test $50 at some point, and gold to hit $2,000, as a new group of buyers come into the metals market.
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard with the Fixed Income Report
Jim welcomes back noted technician Charles Nenner this week. Charles sees a short-term buy signal in the stock market which should last into February. He also expects a rally by mid-January in the bond market, which should be used to get out of all bond funds. Charles believes the long term bull market in bonds is over and investors can expect rising yields in the future. Also this week, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend discusses commodities, and Rob Bernard stops by with the Fixed Income Report.
We’ve gone beyond the tipping point, and there is no way out
Jim welcomes Ross Hansen, founder of the Northwest Territorial Mint, now the largest private mint in the US. Ross and Jim discuss the debt issues facing the US, and Ross notes that a debt crisis will arrive suddenly, as it did in Greece. Regrettably, he believes that there is no way out, and that the US has gone beyond the tipping point for fixing its debt and unfunded liability issues. Ross also believes people are worn out by government-driven crises, and are suffering from crisis-fatigue. As to the physical precious metals, Ross see the best value in silver rounds and junk silver at present.
Big Money buys on downturns, the public buys on upturns
Jim welcomes back geologist Keith Barron PhD. He thinks January could be a big month in the metals, and looks for a positive start to the year. Keith also notes that gold discoveries are becoming smaller in size, as “elephant” discoveries are now very rare. Mining CEO’s are now looking for quality ounces, not quantity ounces. Keith sees gold production declining dramatically in South Africa. Keith believes there will be a significant shift in acquisitions, as large cap miners focus on grade, infrastructure and low capital costs in the future, as well as geopolitical considerations.
The Fed has become an enabler of government spending spree, now funding half the deficit
Jim welcomes back Bud Conrad, Chief Economist with Casey Research. Bud sees the US passing the “tipping point” with US debt levels moving from 100% of GDP to 120% of GDP in President Obama’s second term. Bud believes that future inflation is now “baked in the cake” and this could possibly lead to hyperinflation. Bud’s investment thesis is to own resource stocks and real estate to mitigate the effects of future inflation.
Gold stocks are astoundingly cheap
Jim is pleased to welcome James Grant from Grant’s Interest Rate Observer this week. James discusses a variety of topics, including the return of a gold standard, deflation, how the central banks went astray, what he would do if appointed Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and why gold stocks are astoundingly cheap.
The Road to Serfdom – Federal Reserve policy is destroying the middle class
Jim welcomes back Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital in Seattle, and author of Contrarian Chronicles for MSN Money. Bill believes the deflation fears are fading as the country enters a period of stagflation. He also sees the bond market ultimately taking away the printing press from central bankers, as the US moves closer to a funding crisis. According to Bill, the big story in 2013 will be the long-awaited beginning of the bond bear market. He also believes that Fed policy and the accompanying asset bubbles are effectively destroying the middle class, and leading us down the road to serfdom. As to gold, the underperformance of the gold stocks offers investors real value in quality gold miners. Bill also favors dividend-paying blue chip stocks in this market environment.
Zulauf: We are in the late stages of the fiat money system; get into gold while you still can
Jim welcomes back legendary asset manager Felix Zulauf from Switzerland. In a very timely and powerful interview, Felix covers many important issues, foremost among them the European debt crisis. He believes politicians will not solve the crisis, leaving the European Central Bank (ECB) to begin massive money-printing and devaluing the Euro. Felix sees the ECB balance sheet expanding even more dramatically than the Fed’s next year. He also sees Greece exiting the Euro, possibly even late this year, and next in line would be Spain and Portugal. Felix also forecasts the end of the great bond bull market, and advises selling all bonds over 5-6 years in maturity. He sees a big move out of bonds and into real estate and stocks. In the US, the economy only appears to be healing because of its 9% deficits of GDP. Subtract the deficit spending, and the US is in recession. As to gold, Felix sees decisive new highs for gold in 2013.
Trillions flowing into bond funds at major risk
Jim is pleased to welcome back Douglas Noland, Senior Portfolio Manager at Federated Investors Inc. in Boston. In Europe, Doug believes the ECB will continue to do whatever it takes to bring down the credit spreads among EU member countries, which is helping to create a global credit bubble. Doug sees a major battle in the credit markets between the central banks and the bond vigilantes. The central bankers now have the upper hand, but Doug believes this will not last. Trillions are flowing into bond funds, which he sees as a major risk for investors. He believes that we are entering into a critical “end game” in the inflationary cycle, as central bankers continue to take desperate measures to prop up slowing economies around the globe.
“Best of 2012” Re-Broadcast
Jim is pleased to welcome back Dr. Marc Faber, publisher of the "Gloom, Boom & Doom Report." Marc notes that without current US government deficits, the economy would be in recession. He also expects the Fed to initiate QE3, but believes its main impact will be on investment markets, not the economy. Marc is still bearish on bonds, but admits to have been too early with his bearish call. If he had to choose one investment for the next ten years, it would be gold, with stocks next in line. Marc also makes the case that we are no longer living in a free-market environment, and one has to re-think what is considered a "safe" investment. His greatest concern is the US might confiscate gold again, as FDR did in 1933.
In “risk-off” environment, large-cap energy stocks will outperform
Jim welcomes back Kurt Wulff CFA, independent energy analyst at McDep LLC. Kurt sees real value for investors in energy stocks at current prices. As to the beaten down royalty trusts, Kurt believes they now offer a tremendous value. He notes that if we see more of a “risk off” trading environment in 2013, then the big cap energy stocks will outperform all others. Kurt’s current energy allocation is divided between the big cap energy stocks and the large independent energy companies.
“Best of 2012” Re-Broadcast
Jim welcomes back Greg Weldon, CEO of Weldon Financial. Greg sees the European debt problems growing from a brushfire into a raging forest fire. He also notes the lessons from the Argentine devaluation won’t work in Greece. Greg also believes the next problem area few are paying attention to will be Japan.
Weekly COT Reports are often misinterpreted
Erik Townsend, sitting in for Jim Puplava, welcomes Jeffrey Christian, founder of the CPM Group in New York. Jeff believes that the gold price has hit a cyclical peak, within the longer term secular bull market. He also explains why he thinks the Federal Reserve’s money printing policies do not guarantee higher gold prices going forward. Jeff discusses his impressions of the 2012 Shanghai Gold Show, and if the Chinese public is still enthusiastic about buying precious metals. Jeff also explains why the weekly COT Reports are often misinterpreted, and what this means for the price of gold.
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up and Erik Townsend on Commodities
Jim welcomes back Bert Dohmen from Dohmen Capital and The Wellington Letter. Bert has just returned from China and believes its economy is still in some trouble. He also sees further inflation ahead, with unlimited money printing from all the world’s major central banks. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has his Market Wrap-up for the week, and Erik Townsend has the Commodity Report. Last, but certainly not least, Jim answers your Q-Calls in this segment.
Competitive currency devaluations great for the price of gold
Jim is pleased to welcome back Grant Williams, Portfolio & Strategy Advisor at Vulpes Investment Management in Singapore, and author of the popular investment letter, “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…”. Grant and Jim cover a wide range of issues, including wealth taxes and capital controls, a California “exit tax”, the problems facing Japan, and global competitive currency devaluations. Grant also notes that central banks are now big buyers of gold, and discusses why gold stocks, especially dividend-payers, are now a great buy for the patient investor.
Why has the gold market been so slow to respond to QE3?
Erik Townsend sits in for Jim and welcomes John Doody PhD, editor of the Gold Stock Analyst. John believes that when you step back and look at the long-term fundamentals, the recent volatility in the gold miners is just noise, and gold stocks remain very attractive at current valuations. John also discusses the questions of silver vs. gold, and where he sees most value. Erik and John also explore the issue of why the price of gold has been so slow to respond to the monetary stimulus of QE3.
Germany, the Netherlands, and Austria are bringing home their gold reserves
Jim welcomes back Ronald Stoeferle CMT, author of the popular “In Gold We Trust” research reports, to discuss the gold markets. Ronald notes that central banks in Germany, the Netherlands and Austria are starting to repatriate their gold reserves held outside their borders. He also states that many central banks are moving beyond central banking activities into central planning. As to the gold markets, Ronald is short-term bearish on the price of gold, but sees great value in the gold miners, especially quality mid-cap and junior producers.
Start differentiating now among the best gold stocks
Jim welcomes Ned Schmidt CFA, Publisher of The Value View Gold & The Agri-Food Value View Reports. Ned is extremely optimistic about the gold stocks, particularly the best quality gold stocks. He believes investors should stop thinking about gold stock indexes and look for the best individual stocks. Gold stocks are way down, and valuations are low, making this the best time to buy the best gold stocks. Ned also advises investors to sell their bond funds, and the sooner the better.