The Tax Consequences of Expatriation
Jim welcomes Mark Nestmann, from the Nestmann Group LLC to discuss second passports, international tax planning, and expatriation. Mark looks at offshore tax and reporting obligations for U.S. citizens and permanent residents, as well as what you must consider before you give up US citizenship. Mark also discusses the “exit tax” and the advantages of off-shore accounts. He feels the best option right now, for those who wish to remain US citizens, is to own foreign real estate.
Raising taxes will damage the economy, create more unemployment and lower growth
Jim welcomes back John Williams, Executive Editor at Shadow Government Statistics. John looks at what’s coming ahead, and he sees a bleak situation. John believes there are simply too many unfunded liabilities to tax our way out of this situation. The only path leads to higher inflation, and none of the proposed political solutions will fix the problem. The only realistic way out is to drastically reduce entitlements, which John sees as politically impossible. He sees higher tax rates leading to slower growth, higher unemployment, and economic recession, or worse.
With Obama victory, avoid coal producers
Jim welcomes Marin Katusa, Senior Market Strategist at Casey Research to discuss a potential carbon tax in the US. Marin believes it will happen because the government, the large oil companies and environmental groups all want it to happen. The oil giants such as Exxon will benefit because of their involvement in natural gas production, which will become more attractive to utilities as a carbon tax pushes up the cost of coal as an energy source. Marin advises investors to avoid coal producers and focus on the oil majors, natural gas production companies, and natural gas pipeline transportation companies.
Also, Ryan Puplava with this week’s Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard with the Fixed Income Report
Jim welcomes Richard Dickson, Chief Market Analyst at Lowry Research to the program. Richard believes we’ve hit a significant bottom in the market (click here for chart), and we’re going up from here. He sees strong indications of another new market high coming next year. He advises looking at interest rates and TIP yields as a clue to future Federal Reserve policy. Also on the program, Ryan Puplava wraps up activity in the market this week, Erik Townsend has an update on commodities, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
The end of American Capitalism and the move toward Central Planning
Jim welcomes Ron Hera from Hera Research LLC to discuss his views on financial repression. Ron believes the current version is going to fail, and is very different from the period of financial repression following World War II. Today, the debt levels are higher, savings are lower, and GDP growth is slower. Ron believes economic growth will remain anemic for decades due to debt levels growing faster than GDP. He sees a gradual fading of American capitalism as the country moves toward central planning. Ron believes the last line of defense against this is to accumulate hard assets.
Shale Oil Will Not Make The US Energy Independent
Jim welcomes energy expert Gail Tverberg to the program. Gail believes there are flaws in the recent IEA energy forecast, and sees diminishing returns on Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI). She doesn’t see the US becoming the world’s largest oil producer by 2020, and doesn’t believe that shale oil will make the US energy independent in the future. She believes we could find ourselves reaching “peak oil” because of an economic dilemma: while there seems to be plenty of oil available, the cost of extracting it may be reaching a point where it is more expensive than consumers can afford, and will be left in the ground.
We are seeing El Niño-type conditions without El Niño
Jim welcomes back Evelyn Browning Garriss of the The Browning Newsletter this week. Evelyn discusses the “new normal” in weather, which is a repeat of the weather patterns seen in the 1930’s-1950’s. She also believes that the east coast will be hit with more major “Nor’easter” storms this winter. As to food prices, Evelyn sees them heading higher due to problems with the wheat crop in Africa, Russia and China. Also, if the El Nino conditions strengthen, they could bring more moisture to drought areas in the US.
Bill’s new book (2013): Cold, Hungry and in the Dark: Exploding the Natural Gas Supply Myth
Jim welcomes back Bill Powers, editor of Powers Energy Investor. Bill sees the recent IEA oil forecast as unrealistic, and doesn’t see the US becoming the world’s largest energy producer by 2020. Bill is bullish on the prospects for natural gas pricing, and discusses the different ways to play energy stocks. He believes the best energy investment comes with a dividend yield. In addition, Bill has a new book coming out in 2013 with co-author Art Berman titled “Cold, Hungry and in the Dark: Exploding the Natural Gas Supply Myth”. The book argues that declining productivity combined with increasing demand will trigger a crisis that will cause natural gas prices to skyrocket, damage the economy, and have a profound impact on the lives of nearly every North American.
Also, Erik Townsend with this week’s Market Wrap-up, Commodities Report and Fixed Income Report
Jim welcomes back technician Alan Newman, editor of Stock Market Crosscurrents. Alan is currently as bearish as he’s ever been. He notes that there have been mutual fund outflows in 16 out of 17 months, as individual investors flee the stock market. Alan expects the price of gold to head higher. He sees gold heading to a 5:1 ratio with the Dow Jones index, at a minimum. Also in this segment, Erik Townsend steps in and covers this week’s Market Wrap-up, Commodities Report and the Fixed Income Report.
The Fed only knows one thing: print money to enable government deficits
Jim welcomes back legendary investor Jim Rogers this week. Jim sees China as successfully cooling its economy and avoiding a hard landing. Globally, he is concerned about both Europe and the US. He believes there is no true austerity in Europe, as deficits continue to rise. Jim sees the Federal Reserve as enabling government deficits, and continuing to massively print money. While Jim doesn’t see the precious metals markets as manipulated, he believes both gold and silver are headed higher. Jim owns both gold and silver and is not selling. If the price goes lower, he will buy more. His three favorite investments: agriculture, metals, and currencies. Jim is short US bonds and stocks globally. Jim’s latest book, “Street Smarts”, will be available in February 2013.
Royal Canadian Mint and Sprott Silver to buy 10 million ounces of silver
Jim welcomes back silver expert David Morgan, founder of The Morgan Report. David sees silver as confirming the recent move in gold, and believes that the gold and silver consolidation period is now over. David notes that the individual investor is out of the precious metals stocks, and won’t likely come back until gold hits $2,000 oz. He also notes a potentially market-moving development, as the Royal Canadian Mint and Sprott Silver have plans to buy 10 million ounces of silver in the near future.
Dubai is now the Singapore of the Middle East
Jim welcomes back Bert Dohmen, President & Founder at Dohmen Capital Research Institute. Bert has just returned from Dubai and sees this dynamic country as the Singapore of the Middle East. Bert also sees the recent market sell-off as triggered by early tax selling. He doesn’t see economic conditions improving in the US, Europe of Japan, and believes there could be another financial crisis like 2008 if government spending is not controlled. Bert notes that 21 trillion dollars in fiscal and monetary stimulus in the US can’t produce more than a 1-2 % growth rate. His current outlook for investors is buy gold, and avoid (or short) the market.
Gold will be a good investment for the next decade
Axel Merk of Merk Investments LLC joins Jim to look at the “fiscal cliff” and other issues facing Washington. Axel believes the bond vigilantes will eventually show up and the fireworks will begin in the bond market. He thinks you don’t need the Chinese to sell Treasury bonds to see a crisis in the bond market. With the massive federal debt load, the problem will begin when the market begins to price in inflation, and interest rates begin to rise. Axel sees gold reacting favorably to the Fed’s monetary policies, and believes gold will be a good investment for the next decade.
Also, Ryan Puplava with the Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend on Commodities, and Rob Bernard with the Fixed Income Report
Jim is pleased to welcome technician Craig Johnson CMT CFA from Piper Jaffray this week. Craig believes the long-term bull market is still intact in stocks, and sees investors as very fearful and “fighting the last war”. He also sees mutual fund managers as fearful as well, and unwilling to buy. Craig believes the S&P will hit 2000 in the next 24 months, but regards the bond market as “one gigantic bubble”. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava has this week’s Market Wrap-up, Erik Townsend gives an update on commodities, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Tax increases a short-term headwind for the markets
Jim welcomes back Louis-Vincent Gave, CEO at GaveKal in Hong Kong. Louis believes the Chinese market has bottomed, and there is value to be found there, particularly in RMB bonds. He sees tax increases in the US as a short-term headwind to the markets, and looks to a “Dogs of the Dow” strategy as the most sensible way to invest in the US near term. Louis also sees increasing merger and acquisition activity as a big story in 2013.
Bullion Banks Have A Gold Short Problem
Jim welcomes Nick Barisheff, CEO at Bullion Management Group. Nick sees gold moving higher by the end of the year, as Germany begins repatriating gold, and central banks have leased out massive amounts of gold, which Nick believes is the elephant in the room. He also notes that a number of bullion banks are sitting on large short positions in gold. Nick sees the current situation in simple terms; buy when prices are down.
Politicians Will Cut A Deal Or Boldly Kick The Can Down The Road
Jim welcomes back Brian Pretti CFA, Managing Editor at ContraryInvestor.com. Brian sees a likely political compromise on the “Fiscal Cliff” tax increases and spending cuts due to start in January. They will cut a deal, or at the least, postpone any decision until later in the year. Brian also discusses the sorry state of the economy in California, and how recent significant tax increases won’t help matters. Brian and Jim also discuss the state of the markets post-election.
America’s Achilles Heel–50% of US debt now owned by foreigners
Jim welcomes Ross Hansen, Founder of Northwest Territorial Mint, now America’s largest private mint. Jim and Ross cover a variety of topics, including Ross’ belief that Germany will ultimately opt out of the Euro and go to a gold-back Deutsche Mark. Ross also sees the US on an unsustainable financial path, eventually leading to a dollar collapse. Ross notes that when the music finally stops, you will want to own precious metals.
Circuit breakers on stock exchanges not working
Jim is pleased to welcome Dave Lauer, a market structure and high-frequency trading consultant to IEX Group. Dave recently testified before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs as to the dangers of high-frequency trading and also suggested potential solutions. Dave’s key points to combat the growing threats to market stability are to level the data-access playing field, reinstate the uptick rule, eliminate the maker-taker business model, and implement a market-wide surveillance system.
Real Estate now attractive for investors
Jim welcomes Bud Conrad, Chief Economist for Casey Research. Bud discusses real estate in the economic cycle, and believes it’s now an attractive investment. He also lists where you should have your money now; metals, food, real estate and energy. Bud also talks about what worries him at the moment: rising food prices, Libya and the Middle East, a possible China-Japan conflict, and the massive US budget deficits. Bud and Jim also discuss interest rates, and how they could start rising.