President Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra is roaring back, promising cheaper oil and American energy dominance. But will it work? Energy analyst and consultant Art Berman joined Jim Puplava to dissect the administration’s ambitious 3-3-3 plan—3 million more barrels of oil equivalent daily, 3% GDP growth, and a 3% deficit cut by 2028. With a geologist’s precision and a skeptic’s eye, Berman digs into the feasibility, the stakes, and the bigger picture, from shale’s staying power to global power plays.
For full podcast audio and interview, see Art Berman on ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ and the Death of Peak Oil.
Decoding the 3-3-3 Plan
Berman starts by clarifying what Trump’s Treasury pick, Scott Bessent, means by 3 million barrels. It’s not just crude oil—it’s a mix of crude, condensate, natural gas liquids, biofuels, refinery gain, and natural gas, all rolled into “barrels of oil equivalent.” “He’s not saying we’re going to be producing 16.3 [million barrels of crude] by the end of Trump’s term,” Berman notes, estimating a more realistic 14.5 to 15 million barrels of crude and condensate by 2028. The full 3 million? Achievable, he says, but only if you count the broader energy basket. It’s a nuanced target that’s often misunderstood, and Berman’s not here to hype it—just to explain it.
Why Oil Companies Might Drill Anyway
Critics argue oil companies, now focused on shareholder value over reckless growth, won’t flood the market and tank prices. Berman disagrees, pointing to their true north: investor enthusiasm. “Oil companies… don’t care that much about the price of oil. What they care about is investor enthusiasm for buying their shares,” he asserts. Flash back to 2016-18: low prices didn’t stop drilling when investors loved the growth story. Today’s discipline, he argues, is less about virtue and more about regaining Wall Street’s trust after the growth bubble burst. If Trump’s plan—backed by subsidies, loans, and government muscle—reignites that excitement, “we’re going to drill, baby, drill,” Berman predicts. History backs him up: from 1980s tight gas incentives to fracking’s government-funded roots, Uncle Sam’s greased the wheels before.
Unleashing the Toolbox
Trump’s not starting from scratch. Berman highlights a suite of existing levers—like the Defense Production Act—that could turbocharge production. Need pipelines through resistant states? Call it national security and bulldoze the red tape. Struggling with natural gas byproduct limits? Build takeaway capacity to unlock stranded oil. Refineries stuck on heavy oil diets? Subsidize retooling to gulp more U.S. light crude. “The U.S. federal government has always had the means to aggressively encourage more drilling without the oil companies… losing money,” he says. It’s not fantasy—it’s precedent, and Berman sees it as “eminently feasible” if the political will holds.
Energy Dominance: What’s It For?
Here’s where Berman gets philosophical. Boosting output is one thing, but why? Trump’s stump speech promises cheaper energy for Americans, yet Berman sees a grander game: geopolitical supremacy. “If you want to be the dominant power in the world, you’ve got to lean on your military. And that means oil, pure and simple,” he declares. History’s littered with examples—Germany’s World War II losses tied to oil shortages, Japan’s tanker woes after Pearl Harbor. China, the world’s top oil importer, is the modern wildcard. A U.S. blockade of the Strait of Malacca could choke its supply, and Berman bets that’s on Trump’s radar. Energy dominance isn’t just about pumps—it’s about power.
Shale’s Slow Burn, Not Cliff
Some, like Goehring and Rozencwajg, warn shale’s peaking now, echoing post-1973 declines despite Nixon’s drilling push. Berman’s not buying it. Back then, depletion ruled—80% of easy oil was gone. Today, shale’s a different beast. “We’ve got plenty of supply,” he counters, nodding to EIA forecasts showing Permian growth and a “peak plateau” around 2032, not a sharp drop. Per-well recoveries are dipping, sure, but “those wells are still fantastically commercial.” Technology and price, not just geology, keep the taps flowing. The 1970s analogy? “How many ways can that be wrong?” he quips.
Peak Oil’s Evolution
A former peak oil apostle—think ASPO and The Oil Drum—Berman’s shifted gears since shale rewrote the script. “Peak oil is a perfectly valid concept that I believe in,” he says, but the old symmetrical curve doesn’t fit. Unconventional oil, now 65% of U.S. output, defies that model. Reserves? At 40-60 years based on current rates, depletion’s not today’s worry. “Overall U.S. reserves… are at their highest level ever,” he notes, dismissing panic over shrinking discoveries. Oil firms aren’t charities—they find what’s profitable, not endless stockpiles. And shale? Known for decades, it just needed tech and price to unlock.
Peak Demand? Not So Fast
EV mandates and renewables spark talk of oil’s demise, but Berman’s skeptical. “Show me that any of that has had any effect whatsoever on climate change,” he challenges. Emissions keep climbing; fossil fuel use grows alongside green gains. “Renewable energy can run a civilization just fine, just not this civilization,” he says. Without slashing growth—a nonstarter—oil’s not fading. EVs falter in cold, chargers lag, and consumers crave choice. Demand’s dip? Nowhere in sight.
Oil Prices and the Big “If”
So, where’s WTI headed? At $70 now, Berman sees $50 possible if Trump’s plan clicks—more supply, smart tariffs, strategic use. But it’s not just volume; it’s intent. “What are you going to do with that extra 3 million barrels a day?” he asks. Sell it cheap and call it a day? “A big damn waste.” Leverage it for economic statecraft, geopolitical clout, or a better world? That’s the jackpot. Feasibility’s not the hurdle—purpose is.
Art Berman’s view cuts through the noise with data, history, and a dash of realpolitik. Check his free insights at artberman.com or follow @AEBerman12 on X—he’s a geologist who’s lived the oil game, not just studied it.
For related podcast, see Art Berman on ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ and the Death of Peak Oil. If you’re not already a subscriber to our FS Insider podcast, click here to subscribe.
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