Financial Sense Blog

US Manufacturing Sees ‘Toughest Month in Nearly Ten Years’; Global Manufacturing Now Contracting

Jun 3 – Two of the main manufacturing gauges for the U.S. posted a further decline for the month of May. The IHS Markit index is now at 50.5, just barely above the 50 level for contraction. Here’s what Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Market said about...

Forecaster Jim O’Sullivan on Tariff Headwinds and Second-Half Slowing

Jun 3 – With trade tensions escalating and a global slowdown underway, many are left wondering if recession is near. Financial Sense Insider spoke with Jim O'Sullivan, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, whom MarketWatch named one...

China Is Playing the Long Game, Says Charles Gave

May 31 – Though tariffs, semiconductors, soybeans, or rare earth metals all steal the headlines when it comes to US-China trade tensions, these are just tools or weapons of warfare in a much larger battle over money and sovereignty, Gave told Financial Sense...

China Cannot Weaponize Its U.S. Treasury Bonds

May 30 – A number of recent articles suggest that Chinese officials may reduce their purchases of U.S. government bonds. It is very unlikely that China can do so in any meaningful way because doing so would almost certainly be costly for Beijing. And even if China...

No China Pain, No Trade Gain

May 30 – When US steel tariffs kicked in a year ago, the yuan depreciated sharply, which reduced the effectiveness of tariffs with cheaper Chinese export prices. The yuan had been rallying in 2019 as a trade agreement seemed imminent, but their currency plunged...

Shilling: A U.S. Recession May Have Started This Quarter

May 23 – A U.S. recession probably started in the current quarter. First quarter real GDP growth, 3.2% at annual rates, was temporarily inflated by a jump in inventories, which contributed 0.65 percentage point to growth. This was no doubt unintended

Rob Arnott: U.S. Most Expensive Stock Market in the World

May 22 – Despite the simmering threat of trade wars and rumors of real wars brewing, U.S. stock market valuations remain high. Financial Sense Insider spoke with Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of Research Affiliates, about his take on sky-high valuations...

Oil May Surprise to the Upside with Shale Production Delays, Says Joe Dancy

May 20 –For the past two years the energy sector has been underperforming and recent news of potential supply pressures only adds fuel to the fire. Where’s oil headed? Financial Sense Newshour spoke with Joe Dancy...

Consumer Confidence Jumps to the Highest in 15 Years

May 17 – The UoM May consumer confidence index jumped to 102.4 from 97.2 in April and that was well better than the expected print of no change. This is the highest since January 2004. All of the confidence gain was in the Expectations component which jumped 8.6 pts...

Trump Moves Closer to Defanging Iran

May 16 – Over 2,000 years ago Iran, known then as Persia, was the world’s first super power. Since becoming an anti-western theocratic Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran has been in the crosshairs of conservative...

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