Chris Ciovacco's Blog

Money Management, Research, and Model Development

Chris Ciovacco graduated summa cum laude from The Georgia Institute of Technology with a co-operative degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering. While at Georgia Tech, he gained five years of valuable experience at IBM. Chris also worked for the Georgia Tech Physics department as a teaching assistant leading an undergraduate lab. After accepting a position with Morgan Stanley in Atlanta, Chris received extensive training which included extended stays in NYC at the World Trade Center. After five years at the large wire house, he founded his own money management firm, Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), in late 1999. His areas of expertise include technical analysis and market model development. CCM’s popular weekly technical analysis videos on YouTube have been viewed over 600,000 times. Chris’ years of experience and research led to the creation of the thoroughly backtested CCM Market Model, which serves as the foundation for the management of separate accounts for individuals and businesses.

These Charts (1982-2016) Paint a Bullish Picture

The S&P 500 recently broke out of a multiple-year consolidation box, similar to the breakouts in 1995 and 1985 (see three charts below). The possible relevance for 2016-2017 can be seen by reviewing the historical charts in this post (1982-2016).

S&P 500 Testing an Important Area

Typically, when markets break out from long-term consolidation boxes, it tells us something has fundamentally changed. However, the fundamental drivers that kept the market contained in the consolidation box may still need one...

How Does 2016 Compare to Stock Market Peaks in 2000 and 2007?

A market’s 200-day moving average can assist in monitoring investors’ net aggregate tolerance for risk. Notice in the first chart below the S&P 500 was unable to recapture its 200-day after dropping below it in October 2000.

Messages From Emerging Markets and Cyclicals

Assisted in part by some improvement in China, emerging markets (EEM) recently cleared a resistance zone that had bounded prices for several months. A tick up in the market’s tolerance for risk can be seen in the chart below...

If This Happens, Stocks Could Take a Serious Leg Higher

In what is a microcosm of the last two years, the S&P 500 broke below its recent trading range roughly two weeks ago. The bearish breakdown quickly turned into a failed breakdown as stocks reversed and shot back up in a vertical manner.

Italian Banks Could Spark Next Crisis In Europe

The UK’s recent vote to leave the EU has shed some additional light on existing weak spots in the European economy. One of those weak spots is Italian banks. From The Wall Street Journal...

Defensive Assets Saying Be Careful With Brexit Stock Rally

During the financial crisis, demand for defensive Treasuries soared as economic and systemic concerns started to pile up. How have bonds performed relative to stocks since the Federal Reserve did an about face on interest rates in early 2016?...

Do the Charts Agree With George Soros on Brexit?

Stocks have staged an impressive rally off the recent Brexit low, which may turn into a push to higher highs. However, as noted on Twitter, the S&P 500’s chart currently contains two lower highs, and a recently printed new multi-month low.

Negative Rates Attempt to Inflate Away Government Debt

With the European Central Bank (ECB) getting ready to take center stage Thursday, the concept of negative interest rates has many investors scratching their heads. In this article, we will explore the following question: Why are governments considering negative interest rates...

What Does History Say About the First Rate Hike and Stocks?

Based on 30-day Fed fund futures prices, the CME Group estimates a 74% probability the Fed will raise rates in December after keeping them steady for years. From a historical perspective, the table below shows the dates when the Federal Reserve began to raise rates following a period of...

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