Axel Merk's Blog

Founder, Portfolio Manager
info [at] merkinvestments [dot] com ()

Axel G. Merk is the portfolio manager for the Merk Hard Currency Fund, a no-load mutual fund that provides U.S. investors with exposure to a basket of hard currencies from countries with strong monetary policies to seek protection against the depreciation of the U.S. dollar. He is also founder and president of Merk Investments, an independent investment advisor implementing growth, value, gold and cash strategies. He closely follows trends that affect world markets and watches global currencies with a macroeconomic approach focused on building long-term value for his clients. For more information, go to MerkFund.com.

What's Next for the Dollar, Stocks, Bonds and Gold?

By Axel Merk – The Fed’s “balance sheet reduction” may have profound implications for the dollar, gold, stocks and bonds. We provide an outlook. It is said forecasts are difficult, especially when they relate to the future. Investors might want to pay...

What's Next for Gold?

After an initial surge in the hours after Donald Trump’s election, the price of gold has been under pressure. To gauge what’s ahead for the yellow metal, we dissect the forces that may be at play.

The End of Dollar Dominance?

The end of US dollar dominance may be unfolding in front of our eyes. No, we don't think China's ascent is the key threat; instead, key to understanding the US dollar may be to understand the money market fund you might hold.

Failure of Inflation Targeting?!

It ain't working. Eight years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, central bank chiefs suggest they have saved the world but have they done so? We argue central banks have become part of the problem, not the solution.

Dollar Outlook: Peak Dollar?

Is the dollar's seemingly relentless rise in recent years coming to an end? What are the implications not only for the greenback but other currencies and markets around the world? The chart below shows the US dollar index over the past 40...

Clueless Fed?!

"The Fed doesn't have a clue!" - I allege that not only because the Fed appears to admit as much (more on that in a bit), but also because my own analysis leads to no other conclusion. With Fed communication in what we believe is...

Gold to Beat Stocks?

"Stocks beat gold in the long run!" is a 'rallying cry' to buy stocks we have heard lately that gets me riled up. It’s upsetting to me for two reasons: first, an out of context comparison, in my opinion, misguides investors. It might be...

Gold for Bear Market?

While some continue dancing, the music might have already stopped: are we already in a bear market in stocks? In this context, we study past bear markets to see whether gold may serve as a valuable diversifier for what's ahead.

All Bad at 0%?

We call on central banks to abolish their zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) framework before more harm is done. In our assessment, ZIRP is bad for all stakeholders and may even lead to war.

What’s Next for the Dollar & Currencies?

In anticipation of higher U.S. rates and lower rates elsewhere, the greenback had enjoyed a dramatic rally. Has the tide turned, or is the dollar merely taking a breather? We believe there are threats and opportunities hidden...

Greenspan: Price of Gold Will Rise

Any doubts about why I own gold as an investment were dispelled last Saturday when I met the maestro himself: former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan. It’s not because Greenspan said he thinks the price of gold will rise — I don’t need his investment advice...

Fed Exit a Blue Pill?

While we are busy arguing whether the Fed’s exit will consist of rising rates, reverse repos or the trimming of its massive portfolio, the Fed may well be fooling all of us. Investors must have been swallowing lots of blue pills not to see the illusion hiding in plain sight.

Whatever It Takes 2.0?

If you are convincingly irrational the market may expect extreme measures and front run your bluff. It’s in this spirit that ECB President Draghi is threatening the market with another bazooka. We discuss implications for investors.

Foolish Investment Ideas

With April Fools’ Day behind us, it’s time to get serious about investing. Don’t be fooled by this week’s non-farm payroll report; nor by the assertion that the U.S. may have the cleanest of the dirty shirts. And certainly don’t be fooled into thinking the market has your interests in mind…

Fishing for Gold?

If interest rates are supposed to be on the rise, why has the price of gold gone up so much this year? Is it merely because it is bouncing back after a sharp decline in 2013? We have a closer look at the link between gold and interest rates to gauge how investors may want to approach the bait provided by the Fed.

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