Chris Puplava's Blog

Chief Investment Officer
chris [dot] puplava [at] financialsense [dot] com ()

Financial Sense® Advisors, Inc.
Portfolio Manager
Financial Sense® Securities, Inc.
Registered Representative
Financial Sense
Columnist

Chris graduated magna cum laude with a B.S. in Biochemistry from California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo. He joined Financial Sense® Wealth Management in 2005 and is currently pursuing the designation of Chartered Financial Analyst. His professional designations include FINRA Series 7 and Series 66 Uniform Combined State Law Exam. He contributes articles and Market Observations to Financial Sense and co-authors In the Know—a weekly communication for Jim Puplava's clients only—with other members of the trading staff. Chris enjoys the outdoors.

Game Plan for Late-Cycle Investing

By Chris Puplava – There are several strategies to help one navigate increasing market risk in the latter phase of the business cycle and we will touch on two of them, with risk management being the most important. As stock valuations become elevated and...

Using Recent Bubbles to Estimate a Bottom in Bitcoin

By Chris Puplava – Silver peaked April 25, 2011 and then placed a major bottom on December 29th of that same year—178 days later. The Shanghai Index peaked on June 12, 2015 and bottomed on January 27th of 2016—162 days later. Overlapping the two...

Records Were Made to Be Broken

By Chris Puplava – Given the current trajectory and strength of leading economic indicators it appears that the U.S. economy may survive 2018 without the risk of slipping into a recession, raising the possibility of this cycle becoming the longest on record...

Curb Your Enthusiasm! Why It's Time to Reset Expectations

By Chris Puplava – We currently face a situation in which both the near-term outlook (1-3 years using ISM and Consumer Confidence data) and the long-term outlook (based on valuations) look dismal for the stock market. This clearly argues...

Gold and Yen at Key Inflection Points; Watch for Possible Breakdown

By Chris Puplava – Moves in the Japanese yen have been a reliable indicator for gold due to the effects of the yen carry trade. Given ultra-low interest rates in Japan, its currency has been the funding currency for global speculators who borrow in cheap yen...

Bears Hoping for a September Correction Are Likely to Be Disappointed

By Chris Puplava – The S&P 500 has had quite a run since the early 2016 lows, not experiencing even a slight pullback of 5% or more, leading many to believe that the market would wobble during the seasonally weak period of August and September. Over the last...

Market Bottom Conditions Not Yet Confirmed Though Credit Markets Remain Healthy

Chris Puplava - Based on VIX options term structure, the current market correction is matching the fear readings seen at the November 2016 and June 2016 lows. Looking at the Russell 3000, we are oversold from a technical and breadth standpoint but have yet...

Preparing for the End Game

By Chris Puplava – History books refer to the last economic slowdown we experienced, triggered by the 2007-2008 financial crisis, as the Great Recession. Its impacts were so severe—the worst global recession since the Great Depression...

Does the Stock Market Have a Case of Bad Breadth?

By Chris Puplava – Breadth is one of the most powerful tools that I use to asses strength of the economy and stock market. Breadth is simply a measure of the level of participation of stocks in a bull market or areas and sectors of the economy in...

Active Management Now More Important than Ever

In 1897, Samuel Clemens, best known by his pen name, Mark Twain, was in London for various speaking engagements when someone started a rumor that he was gravely ill, which was followed by another rumor that he had died.

Fiscal Spending: Crystal Balls and Magic Wands

What does a Trump Presidency mean for the economy and the markets, and does it alter our defensive posture? The short answer is no, and here's why. Trump has made it clear that he wants to lower taxes, roll back suffocating...

Economic Breadth Is Significantly Deteriorating in the US

Philly Fed state coincident data came out today and more states across the country are starting to contract. Looking at the snapshot below, positively growing states still dominate the map (and don't give much of an alarming picture), but a different story emerges...

While Presidential Election Takes Focus, US Economy Slips Further

While the current presidential election is getting all of the attention, my bet is the US economy will likely return to front page news next month given the deterioration underway. If these trends continue, consumer spending this holiday season (or lack of) could mark...

US Labor Outlook: Possible Sharp Downturn in 2017

Here is how I view employment: When margins get squeezed and sales slow, one of the first ways businesses respond is by slowing down temp hiring. Then, as trends continue to worsen, businesses start to let go of their temp employees altogether while cutting hours...

An Upside Down World

Soft helicopter money in Japan, relaxed austerity in Europe, expanded monetary stimulus by the Bank of England in reaction to the Brexit vote, and a US Fed on hold has propelled US markets to record highs. With the S&P 500 moving well past 2,100 and the Dow Jones Industrial...

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