Chris Puplava's Blog

Sep 23 – The lesson to be learned here is that a system which is built on a pile of debt will likely be supported at all costs to prevent a deflationary spiral like that seen during the Great Depression. Whether in Europe, China...

Aug 13 – Non-Commercial hedgers (“dumb money”) are the most short the US dollar since the early 2018 bottom. When their short positions get to this lower extreme, that usually indicates a bottom as shown by the following graph...

Jun 26 – In light of the worsening development in COVID-19 infections and deterioration in the economic improvement, we’ve started to reduce risk in client accounts from a neutral position on stocks to nearly a minimum stock exposure level...

Aug 7 – As a follow-up to my warnings last month prior to the recent correction, several areas are at make-or-break inflection points that we are watching closely for signs of a bottom in the overall market or for a further break from current levels...

Jul 24 – Further warning signs are continuing to build that give us caution on the outlook for equities. High yield option-adjusted spreads (OAS) are not confirming the new high in the S&P 500 and have worsened over the last three weeks. Same for...

Jul 18 – The technical picture of the US stock market isn't all that healthy right now. In fact, the only other time we have seen divergences in breadth this large was during the blow-off years of the tech bubble. Bottom line: Breadth levels are warning of a possible market top...

Jun 12 – Historically, the market rallies post the first Fed rate cut and continues to do so as long as the onset of a recession is at least a year out. However, when a recession begins less than a year out from the Fed’s first cut the market’s initial rally quickly fades...

Mar 27 – One of the areas of concern cited by the Fed last year was the leveraged loan market, which took a nose dive in Q4. This space had a strong Q1 rally but has since peaked and is rolling over again. Looking at corporate credit default swaps...

Mar 22 – The answer to that question depends on what one believes were the ultimate causes of the decline and what the outlook is for 2019. If you believe the fourth quarter 2018 decline was largely...

Feb 07 – At the onset of 2018, market soothsayers gave their outlooks for the year. The consistent theme from every economic commentator and investment strategist was jubilation for the most synchronized global growth period since the 2008 ...