Chris Puplava's Blog

Sep 22 – Over the last three months, Microsoft drove a whopping 16.8% of the S&P 500’s return and Apple 14.6%. Literally, just two of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 drove nearly one third of the entire index’s return! Throw in the next top two...

Jul 16 – While off to a fast start in the first quarter, the reflation trade has taken a blow that puts its longevity into question. In simplistic terms, reflation characterizes an upswing in economic growth which sees both growth and inflation accelerate...

Apr 15 – The U.S. consumer is now equipped with record savings and has been confined to spending mostly on goods versus services. For example, personal consumption on goods has not only eclipsed its prior highs...

Jan 28 – The COVID-induced recession and political regime change from President Trump to President Biden are two forces that have broken trends in place for over a decade. Since the bottom of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the S&P 500’s total return...

Oct 19 – Such an epic hit to our economy has been met with an even larger amount of stimulus, and the word “epic” does not do it justice. How do you respond to a $2.2 trillion hit to the economy? With more than $5 trillion in stimulus! Up to now...

Sep 23 – The lesson to be learned here is that a system which is built on a pile of debt will likely be supported at all costs to prevent a deflationary spiral like that seen during the Great Depression. Whether in Europe, China...

Aug 13 – Non-Commercial hedgers (“dumb money”) are the most short the US dollar since the early 2018 bottom. When their short positions get to this lower extreme, that usually indicates a bottom as shown by the following graph...

Jun 26 – In light of the worsening development in COVID-19 infections and deterioration in the economic improvement, we’ve started to reduce risk in client accounts from a neutral position on stocks to nearly a minimum stock exposure level...

Aug 7 – As a follow-up to my warnings last month prior to the recent correction, several areas are at make-or-break inflection points that we are watching closely for signs of a bottom in the overall market or for a further break from current levels...

Jul 24 – Further warning signs are continuing to build that give us caution on the outlook for equities. High yield option-adjusted spreads (OAS) are not confirming the new high in the S&P 500 and have worsened over the last three weeks. Same for...