Gary Shilling's Blog

President

A Gary Shilling PhD is President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor. He has been a columnist for Forbes magazine since 1983, frequently appears on business news programs, and is quoted regularly in the print media. Shilling has been warning about the long-term threat of deflation for several years and has even created a board game, aptly titled The Deflation Game. He received his bachelor's degree from Amherst College and earned his master's degree and PhD in economics at Stanford University. Before establishing his own firm in 1978, Shilling was senior vice president and chief economist of White, Weld & Co., Inc. Earlier, he set up the Economics Department at Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith and served as the firm's first chief economist.

Shilling: A U.S. Recession May Have Started This Quarter

May 23 – A U.S. recession probably started in the current quarter. First quarter real GDP growth, 3.2% at annual rates, was temporarily inflated by a jump in inventories, which contributed 0.65 percentage point to growth. This was no doubt unintended

Shilling: Stocks Are Very Expensive and Deflationary Forces Are Building

May 10 – Stocks are very expensive in relation to corporate earnings. Even if rapid economic and profits growth resumes after the next recession, a secular decline in price-to-earnings ratios is likely to mute stock performance. Prof. Robert Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted...

Gary Shilling: Recession Signals Piling Up

Mar 29 – Recently, others are joining us in forecasting a recession, or at least entertaining a growing probability of one. Of those, few also believe it will commence this year while we continue to rate a business downturn starting in 2019 as...

Is This the Beginning of a Massive Dollar Run?

Mar 7 – Some 88% of all currency transactions globally involve the buck. The euro is a distant second at 31%, the Japanese yen is third at 22% and the Chinese yuan is involved in only 4%, not much more than the Mexican peso’s 2.2% despite...

Why the U.S. Will Win a Trade War With China

By Gary Shilling – When supply is plentiful, the buyer has more power than the seller. That’s certainly true in the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China. And a trade confrontation already exists so the important question is, will it escalate to the level...

Debt, 10 Years After the Bear Bust

By Gary Shilling – Leveraged loans, low-quality vehicles used to finance corporate takeovers, hit a new high of $1.6 trillion last year and investors are increasingly willing to buy “covenant-lite” loans with few caveats to prevent egregious behavior by borrowers...

Trade Wars and the US Dollar

By Gary Shilling – Trump understands that, in a world of surpluses, the buyer, not the seller, has the upper hand. And the U.S. is the absorber of the world’s excess goods and services for which there are no other major markets. Add in Trump’s zeal for deals and...

Global Labor and Capacity

By Gary Shilling – The Fed is thoroughly convinced that the headline unemployment rate, now 4.2%, is so low that it will soon spawn significant wage inflation that, if left unchecked, will spread throughout the economy. The central bankers fervently believe...

Doubling Down on Deflationary Forces

By A. Gary Shilling – Most forecasters, including the Fed, continue to look in vain for significant inflation generated by wage jumps. They don't take into account the depressing effects on compensation of globalization and the resulting large...