Dwaine van Vuuren's Blog

sales [at] recessionalert [dot] com ()

Dwaine is a full-time trader specializing in real-time recession dating models. With a skillful combination of market breadth, econometrics, and fundamental data analysis he has helped grow PowerStocks Research and RecessionAlert.com into companies that provide essential tools for the average investor.

Seasonality Approaching its Worst Point

We have entered the Mid-Term cycle in the Quadrennial Presidential Cycle, in which the months April through to September typically represent the worst SP-500 seasonal period for the entire 4 year cycle...

Global Economy Rebounds Into Growth Territory

It does not matter which way you look at it – the global economy has rebounded into growth territory from which surely could have been classified as a World Recession a few quarters ago.

Seven Paw-Prints of the Bear

For decades, investors have sought out methods to detect oncoming bear markets. With this current bull market now in its 5th year the subject has become even more topical...

Market Update

The SuperIndex has jumped smartly this week from mostly positive data from eLEI and the ISM report.

Don’t Count on FED Tapering Any Time Soon

Whilst the market has sold off in the expectation of FED tapering in the face of an improving economy, and co-incident economic data continues to show improvement, the leading data is likely to do otherwise in the coming months.

World Recession Update – May 2013

There are a number of interesting observations we can make this month. The first is that whilst the percentage of economies experiencing a single quarters negative growth seems to have subsided from a meteorite rise.

Atypical Global Recovery Underway

Since we last reported on the current Global Recession, the Global Leading Economic Indicator (GLEI) rose for the month of March, but is following an atypical growth pattern coming out of recession, with a slope far shallower than the normal expected rebound.

World Recession Update

We have all the numbers in for quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Q4-2012 from around the world. Since our last report in February “World plunges into recession”, the percentage of countries with negative q-on-q GDP growth (1 and 2 consecutive quarters) have improved somewhat as more countries came into the sample and GDP’s revised upwards.

Global Bottom or Double-Dip?

Our prior post titled “World Recession Update” depicted the percentage of 41 countries tracked around the globe that were printing 1 or 2 consecutive negative quarters of GDP growth.

World Recession Update

We have quarterly GDP data for 11 more OECD countries since our last post “World plunges into recession in Q42012“, and there have been some 2nd estimate revisions (such as the U.S).

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