Tom McClellan's Blog


Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern. He has fine tuned the rules for interrelationships between financial markets to provide leading indications for important market and economic data.

Tom is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point where he studied aerospace engineering, and he served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years. He began his own study of market technical analysis while still in the Army, and discovered ways to expand the use of his parents' indicators to forecast future market turning points. Tom views the movements of prices in the financial market through the eyes of an engineer, which allows him to focus on what the data really say rather than interpreting events according to the same "conventional wisdom" used by other analysts. In 1993, he left the Army to join his father Sherman in pursuing a new career doing this type of analysis. Tom and Sherman spent the next 2 years refining their analysis techniques and laying groundwork.

In April 1995 they launched their newsletter, The McClellan Market Report, an 8 page report covering the stock, bond, and gold markets, which is published twice a month. They utilize the unique indicators they have developed to present their view of the market's structure as well as their forecasts for future trend direction and the timing of turning points. A Daily Edition was added in February 1998 to give subscribers daily updates on their indicators and also provide market position indications for stocks, bonds and gold. Their subscribers range from individual investors to professional fund managers. Tom serves as editor of both publications, and runs the newsletter business from its location in Lakewood, WA.

The Supposed Superiority of Common Only A-D Data

By Tom McClellan – I get asked a lot about the supposed problems with the NYSE’s Advance-Decline data, which some analysts claim is “contaminated” by the inclusion of NYSE-listed issues that are not “real stocks”.

Waiting on the Echo of Crude Oil’s Big Drop

By Tom McClellan – 10 years ago in June 2008, oil prices were making a top above $140/barrel, which turned out to be an exhaustive blowoff top. A steep collapse ensued, taking oil prices down to below $40 in January 2009.

What Happened to the Presidential Cycle?

By Tom McClellan – If this were a “normal” 2nd year of a presidential term, we would now be in a corrective period due to last until just before the mid-term elections. But as many in the press have noted, we do not have...

The Fed Is Behind

By Tom McClellan – Make me Emperor for a day, and I would compel the FOMC to outsource interest rate policy to the bond market. Why should we pay 12 experts, most with expensive Ivy League Ph.D. degrees, to do...

Volatility and Interest Rates

By Tom McClellan – Why is the VIX spiking now? Because now is when it is supposed to do that. Volatility and interest rates have an interesting relationship, going back many years. Higher interest rates pull money away...

Stock Market in a Rogue Wave

By Tom McClellan – The stock market is just coming out of a big rogue wave event. And that gives us clues about what lies ahead. The term “rogue wave” gets used in other areas of science, most notably in analysis of big...

Big Change in Bull-Bear Spread

By Tom McClellan – The latest data from Investors Intelligence showed a huge change this week. Bulls dropped from 66% to 54.4%, and bears rose from 12.6% to 15.5%. That means the spread between bulls and bears...

The Chart That Worries Me: HY Bond A-D Line

By Tom McClellan – There is no divergence yet between stock indices and the NYSE’s composite A-D Line. But there is one in the High Yield Bonds A-D Line, and that is an early warning of big trouble to come. High yield bonds...

Architecture Billing Index Shows Continued Growth

By Tom McClellan – The folks at the American Institute of Architects,, publish an interesting set of data each month, collectively known as the Architecture Billing Index, or ABI. The main ABI represents...

Confidence, and What Comes With It

By Tom McClellan – There is a strong positive feedback mechanism involving consumer sentiment and the economy. As conditions get better, people get more confident, which causes them to spend more, so...

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