Sober Look's Blog

Risks to the euro area's ongoing economic recovery have risen recently as Greece once again takes center stage. The nation is about to become the first developed economy to default on its IMF obligation...

In 2011, as the sovereign debt crisis engulfed the Eurozone, the EUR/USD swap basis was deep in the negative territory. It was caused to a large extent by US money market funds who refused to roll dollar-denominated commercial paper issued by European banks...

With property markets in trouble, China's speculative investors are turning to equities. Moreover, increasing numbers of new investors are entering the markets. Last week we saw more than a million new A-share accounts opened, with brokerage firms having...

Further evidence is emerging that China's economic growth is likely to slow further. Even without thinking about growth fundamentals, when you have a 10 trillion dollar economy, a 7% growth is larger than...

With the dollar's renewed strength and slower global demand, commodities are under pressure again. The situation in Brazil is not helping as the weak Brazilian real encourages producers to dump commodities at...

Following Janet Yellen's Senate Banking Committee testimony, the Fed seems to be quite deliberate in preparing for a rate hike in 2015. It's hard to imagine taking such action in the disinflationary environment we find...

Brazil's economic uncertainty continues to worsen. While growth projections for all the BRICS have been lowered, for the first time in years Brazil's economy is now expected to contract in 2015.

Back in September the idea that the Eurozone's economy could potentially undergo a recovery (see post) was met with some skepticism. And yet here we are. The EuroStoxx50 index is up 14% for the year while...

China's central bank followed up with a second rate cut this year. While many believe this is a step in the right direction, the move alone will do little to reduce high real rates and tight effective monetary policy.

Let's take a look at the recent developments in the U.S. energy markets and the seemingly contradictory reaction by equity investors. First of all, while we continue to see significant declines in the U.S. rig count...