Patrick O'Hare's Blog

Chief Market Analyst

Patrick has been with Briefing.com for the past 15 years and authors the Page One, The Big Picture, and Market View columns. He also provides commentary on Live In Play.

He is quoted regularly by Forbes Magazine, Investor’s Business Daily, Active Trader Magazine and U.S. News & World Report. He has appeared on CBS Radio, CNBC, CNN International, Fox Business Network, and PBS’ Nightly Business Report.

A graduate of Vanderbilt University, Patrick is located in Chicago.

Stock and Bond Markets Marching to Same Beat, Different Drummers

Feb 08 – Have you ever gotten that feeling that something isn't as good as you think it is -- or at least like to think it is? Well, we're getting that feeling with the stock market due in large part to what has been happening in the Treasury...

Market View Update: The End of 2018 and Roots of Optimism for 2019

Dec 27 – 2018 started with a bang! Unfortunately for most investors, 2018 drew to an end with a barbaric yawp as the major indices suffered a stark reversal of fortune that was predicated on growth concerns...

Thoughts on the Midterm Election

Nov 6 – The midterm election takes place Tuesday, Nov. 6. There are local and state races to be determined, judges to be elected and referendums to be decided. The stock market, however, cares very little about any of that. What it cares about most...

Have We Hit Peak Earnings Growth?

Patrick O'Hare – According to FactSet, the five-year average for the forward 12-month P/E multiple for the S&P 500 is 16.3. Today, the forward 12-month P/E multiple is 15.9 versus 16.8 at the start of the fourth quarter. On the surface, the S&P 500 appears to be...

Don't Mistake the Stock Market for the Economy

Patrick O'Hare – Please, can we get some bad economic news? Is that too much to ask? That's not too much ask, it's just really dumb to ask for it. Nevertheless, we have heard it asserted in the face of the recent sell-off that bad economic news...

Record Third Quarter Earnings Expected; Energy Sector Main Driver

By Patrick O'Hare – It's here — again! We're talking about an earnings reporting period, which always commands a great deal of attention because earnings drive stock prices over the long term. To that end, the S&P 500 has been on cruise control...

Lessons from the Lehman Moment

By Patrick O'Hare – This week has been filled with remembrances of the financial crisis. We hear them every year at this time, but this year was super-charged with remembrances because it was the 10-year anniversary of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy...

An Impending Shift in a Recession Marker?

By Patrick J. O'Hare – Second quarter real GDP growth was 4.2% on an annualized basis and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Model is estimating 4.1% real GDP growth for the third quarter. That is strong growth. Why, then, is...

Temperature Rising

By Patrick O'Hare – It's the dead of summer right now, which means the heat is on throughout the country. Somewhere else things are hot — and getting hotter — is the financial markets. The heat in the financial markets...

Check Your Weight

By Patrick O'Hare – Anyone who has been riding the wave of the S&P 500 information technology sector's outperformance must be feeling like the Big Kahuna. This past week, however, something happened to make one...

Is a Summer Swoon Emerging?

By Patrick O'Hare – The US dollar has been strong this year, particularly in the second quarter. The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies, increased...

Mind the JOLTS Gap

By Patrick O'Hare – Market participants were literally and figuratively jolted this week when it became known by way of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that the number of job openings in April exceeded...

Good Market, Bad Market

By Patrick O'Hare – Fans of the Chicago Bears haven't had much to cheer about since the Bears appeared in Super Bowl XLI on February 4, 2007, but even then, the cheers were constrained because we had a quarterback...

A Budding Choice Between Risk and Risk Free

By Patrick O'Hare – Why would stock investors be interested in owning short-term Treasury securities when this bull market has yet to be slain by the matador (that would be Fed Chair Powell by the way). If investors hold Treasury securities to maturity, they don't...

Earnings Are G-r-r-r-r-r-eat, but the Reaction to Them Isn't

By Patrick O'Hare – When we published our first quarter earnings preview on April 6, the projected earnings growth rate for the first quarter was 17.3%. Today, it sits at 23.2%, according to FactSet, which would be the highest...