Matthew Kerkhoff's Blog

Chief Investment Strategist
matt [at] modelinvesting [dot] com ()

Matthew Kerkhoff is the Chief Investment Strategist at Model Investing. Matt holds degrees in Management Science and Psychology from the University of California, San Diego, and an MBA from the University of San Diego. His approach to reading markets focuses on understanding the psychology of market participants and anticipating their behavior. Layering an element of behavioral science on top of technical and fundamental analysis allows him unique insight into market direction.

Why It’s Still Too Early to Give Up on US Stocks

By Matthew Kerkhoff – Back in early February, in the midst of the most vicious selloff we’ve seen in years, I showed the chart below and made the case that we were seeing a “minor blow-off top in the context of a continuing primary...

Trade Skirmish Sidelined as Investors Gear Up for Corporate Earnings – What Do Analysts Expect?

By Matthew Kerkhoff – China and the US slapped $34 billion worth of levies on each other’s exports last Friday, and the markets said, “yeah, whatever,” and marched higher. The question is, why? Market moves often baffle...

AI “Algos” Are Profiting From the Wisdom (and Stupidity) of Crowds

By Matthew Kerkhoff – Dow Theory considers daily action in the stock market to be nothing more than noise, and that presupposition may be gaining in importance. I’ve been hanging on to the chart below, waiting for an opportune...

How Long Until the Next Recession?

By Matthew Kerkhoff – Successfully predict the start of the next recession, plus or minus a few months, and you stand to make a lot of money. Not only can you reposition your portfolio towards bonds and cash – typically...

Hunky Dory

By Matthew Kerkhoff – That phrase doesn’t exactly describe the procession of events over the weekend at the G-7 meeting, but I think it’s a fair assessment of the state of the US economy. Let’s take a look at some...

Price Corrections vs. Time Corrections

By Matthew Kerkhoff – In case you’ve been under a rock for the last four months, we’re in the midst of an ongoing correction. Well … at least the major averages are. The market itself, as measured by breadth, has been setting...

Short-Term Trend Shifts Bullish as US and China Enter ZOPA

By Matthew Kerkhoff – Recent talks over this past weekend have helped make it clear that both sides are interested in reaching an agreement. China has already agreed to increase its imports of U.S. products, and on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin...

The Only Thing to Fear Is Fear Itself

By Matthew Kerkhoff – With each passing day it looks increasingly likely that the February swoon was simply a run-of-the-mill correction, as opposed to the beginning of a full-fledged bear market. But that doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods just yet...

What If the World Stopped Growing?

By Matthew Kerkhoff – Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to predict the future. As always, should you or any member of your team be caught or killed, the Secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions.

What Happens When the Fed Closes the Term Spread?

By Matthew Kerkhoff – If you were to compile a list of the most effective recession predictors, the term spread, or difference between short and long-term interest rates, would likely be at the top of that list. This is because the term...

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