Kurt Kallaus's Blog

Author

Kurt Kallaus is the author of Exec Spec and the KDelta trading model for stocks and all commodity futures. In the 1980’s, with a business degree and having worked in manufacturing, Kurt Kallaus engaged with a private Investment Partnership specializing in commodities and stock indexes.

He was certified a Commodity Trading Adviser (CTA) in 1985 to provide advice and services related to trading in futures contracts, commodity options and swaps.

Kurt Kallaus launched the Exec Spec advisory newsletter with the onset of the great 1982 Bull Market. Along with a broad economic and long term perspective on the economy and major investment markets, Exec Spec’s unique breakout pattern trading model KDelta was created.

Breadth Supports Stocks, Sentiment Still Neutral

By Kurt Kallaus – The broad-based S&P 500 and Russell Indices are hitting multi-month highs while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has been reaching record peaks with regularity this year. Despite the Wall of Worry over China Trade...

Are Trump’s Manufacturing Jobs Coming Back to America?

By Kurt Kallaus – The 300,000 manufacturing jobs already created under Trump plus the 900,000 since 2010 is a nice rebound for the factory sector. It’s the longest and strongest job growth period since the 1960s. However, the big picture is that a return...

Economy Still Has FAANGs

By Kurt Kallaus – Everyone knows Tech has led the stock market higher since Trump was elected and 2018 has again demonstrated strong tech leadership. The resplendent tech vanguard is dominated by the $3.3...

Small Bank Risk Spikes: Does It Matter?

By Kurt Kallaus – Almost a third of Banks are experiencing a spike in consumer credit card defaults to levels associated with recessions. While it could be a canary in the coal mine warning of a crisis rumbling through...

Yield Curve Hysteria

By Kurt Kallaus – Awareness of the yield curve and the dreaded potential for inversion as a harbinger of a recession has never been more prominent in the news. Esteemed Federal Reserve members, commercial...

Composition Not Compensation Suppressing Wages

By Kurt Kallaus – We all know intuitively that increasing demand combined with shrinking supply will elevate value. Thus esteemed economists are confounded by the “appearance” of below normal wage growth...

Backlog Logjam Signals Middle Innings

By Kurt Kallaus – The Atlanta Fed estimates a whopping 4.7% GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 2018 and ISM manufacturing backlogs are near three-decade highs. The current order backlog logjam and extreme small business...

Peak Optimism, Not Peak Stocks or Economy

By Kurt Kallaus – A Bloomberg article recently joined the chorus of stock market naysayers with a specious claim that the current record optimism displayed by Small Business surveys signaled that a market correction was due. Panics can occur almost anytime...

The Price of Political Risk

By Kurt Kallaus – This week the markets are dealing with the fear of an Italian political crisis if Italy leaves the Eurozone and defaults on its debt, adding yet another layer of uncertainty into the markets beyond China, NAFTA, North Korea, and Iran. Stocks are unlikely...

China’s Tofu Tariff Tantrum

By Kurt Kallaus – As the China trade war rhetoric in 2018 finally shifts toward intensifying negotiations in late May, the clueless global audience are pawns in a tit-for-tat public relations (PR) campaign by the US and China. The US is demanding the elimination...

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