Kurt Kallaus's Blog

By Kurt Kallaus – A look inside the NFIB business survey reveals interesting support for the high expectations at present. Businesses are declaring now is one of the best times ever to expand. While finding workers is THE number one problem businesses have...

By Kurt Kallaus – Our theme for 2018 is for an even stronger economy accompanied by slowing stock market growth as compared to 2017. Much of the slow recovery since 2009 has been on the backs of the consumer without the normal contribution of investment...

By Kurt Kallaus – Our theme that a new business cycle expansion began in 2016 is easy to see when looking at the renewed strength in the basic industrial and material sectors, which we have highlighted in past newsletters. Less obvious—and just as important however...

By Kurt Kallaus – One of the hallmarks of a Bull market is climbing a “Wall of Worry”. Certainly, there is plenty of longer-term optimism with Consumer and Small Business surveys showing extreme confidence. Yet analysts seem...

By Kurt Kallaus – Each year of this enduring slow-growth expansion cycle starting in 2009 has had a growing chorus of doomsayers looking for the next recession. The evidence in forecasting the next economic peak resembles...

By Kurt Kallaus – Republicans have been salivating over corporate tax cuts and repatriation of the estimated $2.6 Trillion in cash on US company balance sheets overseas that can’t be brought home due to double taxation.

By Kurt Kallaus – For years we have been hearing chimerical Cassandra calls of consumer calamity. “The consumer is getting tired, debt levels are too high, incomes are rising too slow.” Ironically these charts

By Kurt Kallaus – With 15% gains in the major stock indices (Nasdaq 28%) stocks are on pace for their 4th best year since 1999. Precursors of accelerating economic growth abound in 2017, reflective of the rebounding earnings a

By Kurt Kallaus – No correction for 12 straight months is impressive, but in 1995 stocks ran higher for 15 months without exceeding a 3% correction before scaring traders with a 3-week plunge of over 11% intraday. A similar replay of 1995 would keep the buying frenzy...

By Kurt Kallaus – Consumer and small business measures have been extremely optimistic all year which supports the bigger upside picture. Some pundits think the market is soaring based upon expectations for Trump stimulus plans and tax cuts. Our sense is...