The rally off the lows of last week has some work to do before it becomes convincing. While the longer-term outlook remains favorable from a technical perspective, the conviction from buyers needs to pick up in the short-term.
When Williams %R, which measures momentum, fails to clear -20 during a rally, the odds of a retest of the recent lows increase. As the orange boxes show below, numerous markets have not yet seen Wm %R clear -20. This is not a big deal, but we would like to see it cleared up before investing additional cash. Gains lasting one or two days could easily clear these conditions.
The candlesticks from last Friday in the charts above and below also show some indecision. Again, not a big deal, but it is just good to be aware of as we kick off a new week.
The equity markets, especially in the U.S., appear to have more upside looking out longer-term. The vast majority of longer-term charts have moved into bullish territory.
Commodities have a much more muted outlook for now, but that could improve in the coming weeks. The U.S. dollar is also holding up relatively well, which typically does not mesh with a “risk on” environment. Therefore, we have a mixed picture of sorts; stocks strong, commodities relatively weak, and a stable U.S. dollar.
The charts of small caps look a little better than those shown above. There was not as much hesitation in their candlesticks late last week (see below).
Source: Ciovacco Capital
