The Economic Cycle Research Institute is the "world's leading authority on business cycles" whose "state-of-the-art analytical framework is unmatched in its ability to forecast cycle turning points."¹ Furthermore, The Economist magazine has stated that they are perhaps "the only organization to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm."
Five months ago, the ECRI made a very definitive and unwavering recession call going even so far to say that "there’s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off." Since then, the markets have rallied strongly on the heels of recent positive economic data, leading many in the mainstream financial press to accept that the U.S. has narrowly averted an impending recession and will begin to see growth. Not so, said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's chief economist and spokesman; citing under no uncertain terms that "nothing has changed our view".
Again today, in what may be the most anticipated interview of the past three years, Lakshman spoke with Tom Keene of Bloomberg saying that the well-guarded and highly accurate data they use in forecasting has “gotten worse, not better, despite the consensus view that things have been improving.” Listen to his explanation of where the economy is headed and what he says are the "hard facts" signaling either a mild recession or worse below:
He also appeared on CNBC this morning repeating essentially the same message but with the advantage of some charts and a bit more elaboration: (Click here for direct link)