The United States is engaged in large military demonstrations this summer, and so is China. Great powers are known to flex their muscles. Meanwhile, trade continues between the two countries as usual, but tensions are on the rise. This week we find 18,000 Chinese troops engaged in coordinated air, sea and ground maneuvers in the area of Dongshan Island in the South China Sea. Chinese pilots will be flying French-built Mirage 2000-5 fighters and, perhaps, their newly acquired Russian-built Sukhoi's - the same aircraft that bested the United States Air Force in the Cope India 2004 exercises. The head of U.S. Air Combat Command, Gen. Hal Homburg, referred to the February exercises when he warned "that we may not be as far ahead of the rest of the world as we once thought we were."
The United States Navy is presently staging a global readiness exercise with a focus on the Western Pacific. The exercise is called Summer Pulse 04. Seven carrier groups have been dispatched to show that America can deploy overwhelming force despite its supposed "overstretch" in Iraq. America's flexible military potential is due to logistics and control of the seas. The United States can send forces anywhere in the world. It can keep its forces supplied at any almost distance. No other country has this capability as far as we know.
It would seem apparent that China, in particular, envies the U.S. ability to project power at a distance. The new Chinese J10 fighter, due out in 2005, is light enough and small enough for future deployment on aircraft carriers. China has also launched its own stealth fighter project. China's declared military budget is $25 billion - a laughable figure that hides real expenditures behind a series of omissions. The real Chinese defense budget has been estimated as high as $70 billion.
In the not-too-distant future, the United States will face powerful Chinese air and naval forces. However backward the People's Liberation Army seems today, Beijing is committed to upgrading the quality of its ships and planes in order to overpower its American rival in the Western Pacific. China's official press recently acknowledged the PLA's acquisition of Russian Su-30 fighters, Sovremenny destroyers and Kilo class submarines. Despite the impression created by the latest economic news from Russia, the Russians still excel at the manufacture of high-tech, high quality arms. Today, Russian tanks are the preferred armored fighting vehicles of India and Pakistan. In fact, the Russians are developing a new tank, the T-95, to rival America's M1A2 Abrams.
The Russian hand in China's military buildup is significant and presents a major challenge to the American side. It demonstrates that Russia is not afraid of China's growing military power, but welcomes and encourages this growth. In fact, the Kremlin views China as a "strategic partner."
The Chinese are also developing new techniques for attacking American forces. Highly dependent on computers and electronics, American ships and aircraft are vulnerable to nuclear and conventional EMP warheads. High-altitude nuclear blasts can negate American military-electronic advantages, cripple power grids and disable defense computers. Michael Sirak at Janes Defense Weekly reports that U.S. civilian and military infrastructure is not prepared to cope with this "non-lethal" type of attack.
One possible Chinese strategy, suggested by the integration of a Chinese submarine fleet with one of China's missile groups, is to launch a conventional EMP warhead at a U.S. carrier group. Once the U.S. task force's electronic systems are disabled, Chinese submarines converge on the hapless American ships and sink them with torpedoes. This would be an example of Chinese asymmetrical warfare.
It is difficult to calculate today's military balance because of the complexity of the weapons, new dimensions of warfare (space, electronics, etc.) and entirely new theories about fighting and winning wars. At a time when America is running large budget deficits, the fight for new programs will not be easy for Pentagon planners.
