An 18-Year Bull Market?

Tue, Oct 9, 2018 - 10:15am

Gina Martin Adams, Chief Equity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, says we may only be halfway through an 18-year bull market.

Here's what she had to say in a recent interivew with FS Insider (see Stocks Could Advance Another 9 Years, Says Bloomberg’s Gina Martin Adams).

"We do have an alternative view on the potential duration of this longer-term uptrend for stocks and a longer-term bull market at large...

Relative to past bull markets of the last century, we may only be halfway through. When we look at defining bull markets as I mentioned, we look at longer-term trends and valuation in price, and we look at rates of GDP growth relative to inflation as sort of definition factors for what characterizes the bull.

The two other big bull markets of the last century were 1950-1968 and 1982-2000 based on those definitions. Obviously, we can have really big corrections in the midst of longer bull trends, 1982-2000 is a perfect example of that.

We had the 1987 crash in the midst of that longer-term uptrend. We had the ‘90-‘91 recession and subsequent correction in the equity market. We had a big correction in the equity market in 1998 and yet the overwhelming uptrend remained intact until 2000 when it really shifted into a bearish regime. I think it is an interesting coincidence that each of those bull markets were 18 years in duration.”

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