FOREX Comment AM 04-13-09

The Easter holiday weekend continues for one more day as some Asian markets were closed overnight leaving the USD unchanged-to-lower from Thursday as traders focused mainly on the crosses into the start of New York this morning. Volumes were understandable light and traders note two-way action dominated by tech factors continued. Equities were higher overnight to start this week adding a bit to risk-acceptance putting the Greenback under slight pressure but the main focus remained the crosses with Yen rising against most of the major pairs; USD/JPY still encountering upside offers around the 100.80 area again with high prints at 100.73 before pulling back to the 100.50 area in early New York. Traders note that Japanese investors remain long of the Yen keeping the tone supportive on dips. Low prints in the USD at 100.22 with stops noted on a break of 100.10 some desks say. GBP is higher holding slight gains with high prints at 1.4747 so far today; the rate opens New York around 1.4720 area with traders looking for a move over the 1.4780 area to trigger close-in stops. EURO is better from Thursday's close after dipping under the 100 day MA over the weekend; high prints at 1.3218 with lows at 1.3125 making for a tighter range. Traders note a French name on the bid under the 1.3140 area suggesting possible official interest on dips; stops from model accounts noted above 1.3260 area arguing for tech and black box traders short the market on the dip under the 100 day MA. USD/CHF is failing on the highs from last week despite a solid close over the 1.1550 area; highs at 1.1610 were offered and the rate fell through 1.1550 area for low prints at 1.1506 and is on the lows to open New York. Traders note liquidation stops likely placed around the 1.1490 area from momentum accounts that likely went long on the close over 1.1550. USD/CAD had a tight range to start the week with highs at 1.2288 and lows at 1.2238; holding the 1.2240 area in early New York trade. Of all the pairs this morning the USD/CAD is looking to weakest some desks say due to the failure at the 1.2280 area near-term. Analysts suggest a close below the 1.2220 area will turn the charts negative arguing for a test of the 1.2180 area leaving the rate vulnerable to a further extension of losses from the 1.3000 area seen the past month. In my view, the Greenback is continuing to consolidate the recent gains as corrective and not as strength. The USD is likely headed for a test of the lows seen after the break from the 3-year highs. I don't see the underlying fundamentals as being overly supportive and should the equities markets continue to attract risk investors they will move cash as the sense of panic mitigates further. Look for the USD to remain two-way today through US data due tomorrow; likely the news will show continued contraction in the US economy suggesting potential for a weaker USD.