Jim Welsh: Cracks Starting to Appear, Be Prepared for Headwinds Into Second Half

June 21, 2024 – Economic data in the US is now consistently falling short of expectations, with slowing consumer spending and rising state-level unemployment signaling trouble. Jim Welsh of Macro Tides, who dismissed recession fears in the past, now sees increased odds of a prolonged slowdown in the US economy for the second half of this year and a heightened risk of recession in 2025. On Financial Sense Newshour, Jim Puplava and Jim Welsh discuss key topics like consumer spending trends, default rates, the small business sector, the yield curve, and recent insights from the Bank Credit Analyst and the Federal Reserve.

Read the latest Macro Tides report here: Should We Be Worried About a Recession? Not Yet, But... (pdf)

Follow more of Jim's analysis, research, and reports at Macro Tides | Macro-Economics & Technical Analysis Expertise

Follow Jim Welsh on X @JimWelshMacro

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