Robert Rapier's Contributions

Robert Rapier’s Five Energy Predictions for 2016

Jan 8 – Robert Rapier, a chemical engineer and energy analyst, makes specific predictions each year related to the energy market, whether it’s the price of oil or even who will win 2016’s presidential election. In this interview, Robert discusses his five predictions, which ones he feels most...

Top 10 Energy Stories of 2015

As I have done for several years now, I like to close out the year by highlighting the top stories in the energy sector. The 2015 list was challenging, because so many of the stories are interrelated. Commodity prices continued to plummet, but oil, natural gas...

Energy on the Edge: Understanding the Challenge

Along with the OPEC meeting that takes place late this week, the biggest story in the world of energy is the Paris Climate Change Conference (Conference of Parties 21, or COP21) that runs through the end of next week. This conference is put on by the United Nations with the goal of producing...

The Boom-Bust Cycle - Five Stages of the Oil Industry

The history of the oil industry has been one of cycles, from nearly the beginning of the industry in the 1850s through today. In the down cycle that we are currently experiencing, demand rises due to low prices, even as oil producers begin to cut capital...

President Hillary Clinton Will Oppose Crude Oil Exports

I know some people cringe at the idea, but Hillary Clinton is the current favorite to win not only her party’s nomination, but the presidential election in 2016. An online Irish bookmaker lists Hillary at 11/8 odds to win the presidency...

Robert Rapier on $20 Oil - Goldman Sachs Has No Crystal Ball

Sep 24 – Goldman Sachs has given a possible downside target for oil at $20. Robert Rapier points out that Goldman does not have a crystal ball and that they also projected oil to rise as high as $200 in 2008 right before it crashed. He also discusses the oil export...

Peak Oil Is a Function of Oil Price

The scientific study of peak oil began in the 1950’s, when Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert reported on the evolution of production rates in oil and gas fields. In a 1956 paper Hubbert suggested that oil production in a particular...

Lessons From a Failed Prediction

While there are actually other stories unfolding in the world of energy, you would never know that by my inbox. Most of the correspondence I have received in the past week is still related to oil prices, particularly following...

Why the $20 Oil Predictions Are Wrong

As the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) retests the $40 per barrel (bbl) mark, some pundits are again calling for WTI to fall to $15 or $20/bbl. The same thing happened earlier in the year when crude prices tested...

The Link Between Oil Reserves and Oil Prices

Last December the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest estimate of U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves. Although natural gas reserves rose, the real story was crude oil reserves.

Is the U.S. Really the World’s Top Oil Producer?

According to the recently-released BP (NYSE: BP) Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, the U.S. was the world’s largest and most diverse energy producer in 2014. The Statistical Review ranked the U.S...

OPEC Crashed the U.S. Rig Count

There is a popular narrative going around that I want to address in today’s article. Last November, after several months of plummeting crude oil prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met to discuss the oil

Is Audi’s Carbon-Neutral Diesel a Game-Changer?

Occasionally I am deluged with inquiries about a particular news story. That happened this week. As the inquiries mounted, I decided I better address the story. After I saw one more gushing, uncritical report on CNN, I knew...

Highlights of the 2015 Annual Energy Outlook

Last week the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Annual Energy Outlook 2015(AEO2015). The report presents updated projections for U.S. energy markets through 2040 based on six cases...

Crude Prices Surge as the Pieces Fall Into Place

I have been pretty adamant — some may say stubbornly so — about my expectations for crude prices this year. I have argued against the notion that oil prices were going to fall to $20 or $30/bbl for several reasons.

Crude Oil Inventories Should Peak Soon

There are many moving parts in this storage picture. One of those, as I explained in the previous article, is refinery demand. This piece of the picture seems to be largely lost in the storage discussion, so...

Is the U.S. Running Out of Crude Oil Storage?

No, despite the popular narrative that we keep hearing, the U.S is not running out of crude oil storage. Yet there are those who are predicting that oil prices are going to fall to $20 or $30 a barrel, pointing to...

Washington Post: President Obama Is Lying About the Keystone Pipeline

I will preface this article with my standard disclaimer on the Keystone XL Pipeline project: I have no vested interest in the pipeline either way. My interest is in fostering honest debate and discussion on energy policy...

The Growing Risk of Transporting Crude Oil by Rail

By now you have probably heard that a CSX (NYSE: CSX) train carrying Bakken crude from North Dakota’s shale oil fields derailed and caught fire. The oil was bound for a coastal oil shipping depot owned by...

Robert Rapier on Oil Bottom, Economic Impacts, and 2015 Energy Predictions

Last Year 100% of Robert Rapier's Energy Predictions Came True

Feb 18 – Cris Sheridan welcomes Robert Rapier, director of alternative-fuels technology for Advanced Green Innovations LLC. Robert and Cris take a look at his predictions for this year when it comes to oil...

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