Gordon T Long's Contributions

Massive Shrinkage of Stocks Driving Bull Market, Says Gordon Long

Oct 3 – Market specialist Gordon Long says our record-long bull market is being driven by an unprecedented shrinkage of available shares in the stock market because of three primary trends that are unlikely to reverse any time...

Is Commercial Real Estate in a Bubble and Ready to Burst?

Mar 23 – The commercial real estate market is massive—much larger than the housing market—and our next guest, Gordon Long at Macro Analytics, thinks the retail segment is in a bubble and ready to burst. If so, he argues, it will be much bigger and have more...

Gordon Long on Secret 'Shanghai Accord'

May 13 – Speculation abounds of a closed-door meeting between leaders of the world’s largest economies to take down the US dollar. The reason: to provide relief to commodities, oil, and emerging markets. Gordon Long...

Gordon Long Says Global Slowdown Quickly Washing Ashore

Jan 13 – Gordon Long, co-founder of Financial Repression Authority, discusses a powerful combination of headwinds in our current market and economic environment, including his belief that Americans are facing increasing levels of taxation by...

Gordon Long on the Four Pillars of Financial Repression

Apr 8 – Cris Sheridan welcomes Gordon Long, Founder and Principal of LCM Groupe. Gordon explains what financial repression is, the four pillars for implementing it, and why this is one of the most important issues facing savers and investors across...

Shock Waves Shaking the BIITS

Shock waves are washing ashore across Asia and the emerging markets and have already destabilized sovereign capital flows. It is eerily reminiscent of the Asian Crisis of 1997. Many are quick to point out that this time it is different because.... These are words that always cost investors the most!

The “Bloated” Bond Bubble

But Still Ready to Take More Air!

The Fiscal Cliff theater was great 'off Broadway' drama, but the real show for traders took center stage Sunday December 16th in Japan. The curtain went up for the newly elected Prime Minister of Japan as the star actor in the unfolding global fiat currency drama.

Monetary Malpractice

Dysfunctional Markets

One of the first axioms of analysis is: "Garbage In, Garbage Out"! If your data is flawed, everything you do with it and the decisions stemming from it are flawed and dangerous to your financial health.

Monetary Malpractice: Moral Malady

Some would argue that the lack of growth and jobs has created a sense of uncertainty in America which has manifested into historically low levels of confidence and sentiment. I would argue the cause is a crumbling foundation of trust and the cause and effect the opposite.

Currency Cartel: Counterfeiting “Risk Free”

Since Bretton Woods and the creation of post WWII Monetary structure, US obligations were considered risk free and its debt instruments rated as AAA. Global risk and spreads have traditionally been priced off this foundation.

Debt Saturation & Money Illusion

Most, intuitively, sense this to be a correct assessment but few can either prove it or articulate it to the less sophisticated. Let me arm you to be the "Nostradamus" amongst your friends and colleagues in explaining the problem and what the future therefore foretells.

Bernanke’s QEx Box

Chairman Bernanke has placed himself in a box. It is not a box of his choosing, but rather the result of his misguided economic beliefs, use of flawed statistical data, geo-political events occurring during his watch, poor decisions and a penchant for political pandering. Some of these may be requirements for academia success but not for leading global financial markets during turbulent times.

RIP Shadow Banking System, Long Live QEx!

Currency Wars

We have unwittingly become trapped in the snarled net of years of bad Public Policy. Like corporations that look no further than this quarter's results, our politicos never stop campaigning to start the tough task of ruling responsibly. A winning election simply represents 'rewards' and 'spoils' to all before quickly resuming the next campaign.

Flash Points in the 'Age of Rage'

Currency Wars

The conflict in North Africa was a predictable outcome of the US Monetary Policy of Quantitative Easing. It is not plausible that the US Federal Reserve, as the manager of the world's Reserve Currency, did not fully recognize the global ramifications of such monetary inflation actions well in advance. Quantitative Easing like the Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) of the cold war era has had the same devastating pre-emptive impact on Libya.

Mapping the Critical 2011 Themes

The conclusions of our "2011 Thesis - Beggar-thy-Neighbor" was that the world is on a glide path towards a global Fiat Currency Failure and the emergence of a New World Order. We are unclear whether it is planned or happenstance, but what the regularly conducted abstraction mapping process clearly indicates is that it is presently a high probability outcome.

2011 Tipping Points

Throughout my 2010 article series "Extend & Pretend" and "Sultans of Swap" I stressed that we were rapidly moving from the Financial Crisis of 2008, through the Economic Fallout of 2009 -2010, towards a Political Crisis in 2011 -2012. We are now clearly beginning to see the early emergence of the final part of this continuum. From North Africa to Wisconsin all are fundamentally based on the single insidious underlying problem - excessive global debt and credit levels.

Market Analytics - February 2011

Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets

We appear to have a 'rolling top' with broad based weakening analytics and cascading warning signals. This behavior is often seen near major tops. The Friday 01-28-11 sell-off is the initiation of a short term correction and consolidation before we put in a final new high as part of this final topping formation and long term right shoulder construction pattern.

Beware of Lurking EU Bank Runs

The figure below shows that when Irish government CDS yields first passed 3% in early 2009, foreign deposits fled the country. This happened again in late 2010. Now that Spanish CDS yields have broken the 3% threshold, there is reason to be concerned about the stability of Spanish bank deposits as well."

Debase, Default, Deny!

Currency Wars

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

Currency Wars

Miguided US Economic Policy

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong!