Barry Bannister CFA's Contributions

Interview With Stifel Nicolaus’ Barry Bannister - Possible Market Peak in 2018

Jul 20 – In light of our recent quarterly newsletter, Preparing for the End Game, we are re-airing our interview with Barry Bannister, Managing Director and Chief Equity Strategist at Stifel Nicolaus, where he explains his outlook for a possible...

Interview With Stifel Nicolaus’ Barry Bannister - Possible Market Peak in 2018

Mar 29 – In today’s podcast, Barry Bannister, Managing Director and Chief Equity Strategist at Stifel Nicolaus, explains why he expects the US stock market to peak in 2018, followed by a recession and bear market in 2019. Bannister also...

Barry Bannister: The Biggest Risk to the Economy Is Government Policy, Not Fundamentals

May 23 – Jim is pleased to welcome back Barry Bannister CFA, Managing Director at Stifel Nicolaus. Barry characterizes the first half of 2013 as recovery from a deflationary shock, with defensive stocks outperforming. He sees the second...

Bulls Take a Step Back in the Second Quarter

Secular bear markets feature cyclical bull & bear stages. We expect this one to cross over to “Late Bull” if we stay above the 200 day moving average (dma) for the S&P 500. But after that, we see the S&P meeting resistance at 1,600 e.g., the secular flat market continues.

As China Teeters and Europe Dithers, a Good Time to Recap our Macro Views

We see the S&P 500 ending 2012 at 1,400 with a mid-2012 dip to 1,200 followed by 1,600 around 2013-14 on a P/E 16x normalized, albeit sharply slowing EPS. By mid-2012, we anticipate QE3 in response to deflationary shocks. Beyond mid-2012, we expect large cap growth equities to lead the S&P 500 higher with financials fueling (and capping) the S&P rally at 1,600.

1Q11 Macro-Trends: Early Reflation Feels Like Growth

In 2011-13 we see the S&P 500 near the high end of the ~700-1500 range of the past decade, then backto the middle of that range by mid-decade on tails risks (a 2nd oil shock, geo/political risk & Fed exit). We like U.S. growth stocks (Tech-Media-Telecom-Health), because what is coming in 2011-12 may feel like a faint echo of the late 1990s Tech Bubble.

4Q10 Macro-Trends

A wall of worry is to be expected. S&P 500 Mid-2011 $1,250 target is unchanged from 3Q view. After ~$1,250 S&P 500 by mid-11, we see ~$1,350 by 2012. 2011 EPS views emerging from 3Q earnings reports are drawing attention to how inexpensive “risk” relative to “risk aversion” has become. We think the U.S.$ is bottoming, CRB is peaking, and EM is peaking as well. Buy mid/large cap U.S. growth stocks.

A Rocky Balboa Stock Market

We believe the S&P 500 around $1,100 is positioned almost exactly in the middle of a “secular bear market” trading range, which we expect to exist for the period 2000-14. At this point, investors may be entering the Rocky Balboa home stretch of "punch drunk" volatility. In a short cycle sense, U.S. stocks may now be a “mid-bull,” e.g. volatile, with a less steep rise to 2010/11 in which the S&P 500 may peak at $1,250 in 2010, $1,350 in 2011.

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