Jeb Handwerger's Contributions

The market wires are ablaze recently with news that all is well in the relationship between Athens and the elites of the Euro-Zone. The Greek bailout is a fait accompli. The markets are responding with a relief rally that has taken the pressure off of stock and commodity markets internationally since the beginning of July.

The recent release of 60 million barrels of oil (OIL) will artificially lower the price. High oil prices has been the best catalyst for clean energy production and fuel efficient vehicles. Increasing the supply of oil may be pushing down the demand for rare earths(REMX), uranium(URA) and lithium(LIT) only short term. This decline in oil prices should not drastically hurt the development of rare earth assets outside China.

While the media is customarily thought to disseminate news, there is a far more intriguing purpose in the role of the relationship between the national mindset and the intended purposes of economic establishment.

Global debt issues combined with weakening US economic data has reignited the quest to protect capital. Investors are seeking the ultimate safe havens in the US dollar (UUP), long term treasuries (TLT), gold (GLD), and silver (AGQ) in order to protect their wealth from the onslaught of currency instability and US economic weakness.

The euro (FXE) slid compared to the U.S. dollar (UUP) after meeting and reversing at its long term down-trend resistance line two weeks ago. About four weeks prior to that, I alerted readers that the Euro could reverse lower supporting precious metal prices.

The prices of rare earth oxides are blasting through the stratosphere. Manufacturers are driving prices in their haste to involve them in production of hybrid vehicles, wind turbines and the most high tech applications of which many sophisticated investors are unaware. These producers need the rare earth ore and are willing to pay for them on the world markets.

In early January of 2011, a top secret candlelight dinner was held at the White House. There was no fanfare and meager publicity. Present were the industrial, military and governmental heads of both China and the United States. Our government had just digested the failures of Lehman Brothers, AIG and other corporate icons by creating massive bailouts and running up trillion dollar budgetary deficits. China was also concerned about inflation and soaring prices due to the intentional debasement of the U.S. currency (UUP) by the Federal Reserve. Both sides reached a modus vivendi, so they could mutually profit from these agreements. Please see my article on the “Chinamese Twins” back from January 2011 to understand these past few weeks.

When one begins trading it is important to realize that it is like any other business and your goods are your stocks. There is a basic rule that one must learn and never forget when buying and selling merchandise. You must be prepared to accumulate your products when there is a panic and sell them when there is euphoria. One has to sell when the product is in demand and the investment public becomes aggressive and buy when it is out of favor and the public shows little to no interest. In August of 2010 and January of 2011 precious metals both gold and silver presented excellent buying opportunities.

The virtues of gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) are being addressed far and wide. My readers know the steady drumbeat of praise that is reaching a crescendo for the white metal scares the hell out of me. The driving forces behind silver’s price come from investors, industrial demands and a global shortage. The world simply is using more silver than the mines produce and new silver discoveries are becoming difficult to find. These factors are becoming truisms for public consumption. A parabolic rise has formed in silver as gold advances on to our measured target of $1600. Please note that at these times of extreme optimism volatile pullbacks become more prevalent. Parabolic rises must be approached with caution. Silver has rallied moving exponentially while gold is still moving linear.

Regardless of whether a compromise is reached over the approaching lockdown of the United States ceiling and the raising of the debt, this impasse has momentous significance for holders of gold (SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)) and silver (iShares Silver Trust (SLV)). The serious weaknesses of our economic structure are exposing it as a paper tiger. Instead of seeking fiscal sanity, the inability of our leaders to agree on even the smallest of issues is reminiscent of the Roman Empire dealing out bread and circus to the masses when Rome could no longer afford the good times and the games.

Gold broke out of its 6 month consolidation and cup and handle pattern. The gold bulls are now in control and short covering should begin to cause an explosive move to my late January target of $1600 on gold and $40 on silver. In late January, gold and silver were in a sell-off and many were predicting lower prices as moving averages were broken. Now we are on our way to the January target in gold of $1600.

There have been major developments occurring this week in the rare earth arena, which could hold significance for the expansion into Europe of Molycorp (MCP) and the development of a US domestic supply chain of rare earths (Market Vectors Rare Earth/Str Metals ETF (REMX).

The Cassandras of the media beat the drums of fear concerning Japan’s millennial tragedy, which has been a confluence of perfect storms. There has been a great deal of bad news coming out of Japan which the press has spun into a blanket condemnation of the entire nuclear industry.

It is the best of times for equities and precious metals and the worst of times for the U.S. dollar. It is prudent to focus on the sectors with long secular uptrends as these patterns tend to last longer than expected and produce the greatest returns. Gold (GLD) and Silver (SLV) are in a decade long uptrend as geopolitical uncertainty and rising debt levels have caused many investors to seek the safe haven shelter of real money. In July 2010, as the European Crisis was the prominent topic of worry, gold reversed higher and made a major move on central bank plans to ease.

Not too long ago in our national history, mining for rare earths (Market Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals (REMX)) was an American enterprise. As in so many other areas, such as nuclear power, automobiles and technolgoy, it was decided that the US would shut down industries and farm the work out.

Physical demand for gold and silver is strong as investors seek protection of wealth against uncertainty in the Middle East. It has already been reported that Col. Qaddafi has been a wise gold investor, preparing for this crisis by hoarding a large amount of the precious metal to fund his military and to hedge against economic sanctions.

It's very difficult for a trader to stick to a plan and not let news events dictate decisions. But every once in awhile there are news items that come along and attempt to trip investors up, forcing some to take their eye off the big picture. Many of us understand the long-term potential of precious metals and commodities, but the emotions -- either unbridled enthusiasm or gloom and doom -- of the herd often affect our decisions negatively at short-term turning points.

There's an old saying in investing: Buy a winter coat in the summer. Uranium stocks are certainly out of season and deeply discounted. Media coverage has shifted from the destruction of the earthquake to the negative aspects of nuclear energy. Nothing puts fear into the public more than green men in radiation outfits.

Last week the Japanese earthquake darkened the skies with an unexpected flock of black swans. On top of an act of nature, we have the persisting presence of eurozone debt fears, currency wars, the Middle East unrest, and the near bankruptcy of many states in America.