Jeb Handwerger's Contributions

The Middle East Turmoil has created a sell off in equities and a run to the safe haven assets of precious metals and oil. Even though rare earth prices are soaring, many investors have overlooked a key sector which has pulled back providing a bargain opportunity before the rare earth crisis intensifies.

The gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) meteor keeps soaring in the skies over Wall Street as the US dollar (UUP) is parachuting into new lows. The spot price of silver this week broke $34.40, zooming into a record high area unseen since 1980. On March 1, gold followed its poorer brother by breaking out at $1425.

Many of the great declines in the stock market over the past 30 years have been related to oil (United States Oil (USO)). This week we have seen the major indices plummet on geopolitical chaos throughout North Africa, especially the large oil-producing Libya, as investors returned to gold (SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)), silver (iShares Silver Trust (SLV)), and oil.

Once there was a time when America bestrode the nuclear world as a colossus. Names such as Einstein, Oppenheimer, Manhattan Project helped to win World War 2 and contribute to many peacetime applications as well. Over the ensuing decades the United States allowed other nations to take the lead in the development of nuclear power.

Last week I warned of a flare-up in Egypt and a reversal in oil and gold. The media are transmitting pictures of street scenes in Egypt that for the most part appear benign. However, riptides of anti-Americanism are squirreling ominously beneath the surface. There are reports that El Baredei is to form a unity government with the Muslim Brotherhood. Business leaders, Westerners, and major shipping companies have rerouted their ships away from Egypt.

An unexpected specter is haunting the streets throughout the capitals of North Africa and the Middle East. Although revolution has been quelled for many years, dollar devaluation has caused prices of basic goods to soar in emerging economies like these.

I coined a term called the “Chinamese Twins” for my readers. I advised my readers that two separate dinners were to be held at the White House, the feast receiving the most publicity was held as the “Grand State Dinner.”

On January 18th and 19th, the top officials of the two most powerful nations on Earth are to meet in matters of far reaching significance. There will be not one but two dinners. One is to be a grand dinner of state with all of the military and business leaders of both sides in attendance. The other is to be an “intimate” dinner. Oh, to be a fly on the wall of that private meeting.

History is replete with seemingly unexpected and catastrophic appearance of events that nobody saw coming. In the old days, we have Biblical prophets who sounded clarion alarms. Now we are past the age of prophecy. As in historical watersheds, we suddenly find ourselves congealed in the volcanic ash of a modern Vesuvius eruption, which leads us to scratch our heads of how in the world did we come to this point with rare earth supply fears?

Traders entered the new year exiting their commodity positions on fear of growing austerity measures and possible exit strategies out of Central Bank quantitative easing strategies. There has also been a huge move into risky equities from traditional safe havens, but that may end in the next few weeks.

Month January is named after the Roman god Janus. He is depicted as having two faces. One looking back at the fading last hours of the old year, the other trying to discern the new year. Similarly I contemplate the final two trading days of the old 2010 year and the opening of the first five trading days of the 2011 year. This period is sometimes marked by swirls of positioning often referred to as “window dressing” in order to make portfolios appear as attractive as possible.

One of the most interesting realizations I have gained from studying the financial markets is that success comes from developing a clear set of rules and sticking to them despite the current psychology and tenor of the market. Contrary to popular opinion being successful in the market is not based on how smart you are or what university one attended, it is sticking to your discipline and following a methodology.

What is so rare as a day in June, the poet asks? The answer..a sector in play, on a perfect day. The rare earth sector is experiencing an explosion of investment interest as China continues to place restrictions on Rare Earth Oxides (REO).

A few days ago the French upstaged the US mighty nuclear reactor construction industry under our very noses in broad daylight making us appear as Homer Simpson napping at the control plant of Mr. Burns’ atomic energy plant in Springfield. Most of the media never mentioned the event. Only one gave it token coverage hidden on pg. A13 without realizing its true significance.

Over the past few weeks I have been warning about a decline is bonds and a rise in interest rates. Bernanke has decided to leave rates unchanged and remains committed to the plan to buy $600 billion dollars of long term debt. Congress and President Obama are working together to extend the Bush tax cuts for two years at a cost of $858 billion.

After QE2, analysts were looking for possible consequences of the Federal Reserve Bank’s actions. What has become apparent is that the Fed has created another bubble in China. Investors globally have transferred devalued U.S. dollars and Euros to buy Chinese property and equities. China has had to combat imported inflation with rapidly rising asset prices. An influx of capital has caused a real estate bubble, a rise in costs of basic goods and excessive speculation in the commodity markets.

In my studies of the financial markets, I have found the study of trading tactics to be similar to my studies of military history and sports.

What has been completely overlooked or not mentioned during this sizable run up in stock market profits, including the precious metals sector, is the imminent advent of tax loss selling. Every year around this time, as sure as snow falls in Vermont, more than ever, there are reasons why this unmentioned event is apt to be at least modestly affecting stocks before the year end especially precious metals. Gold has risen over 18%, silver has shown a rise above 50% on the year.

In 1883, an historic cataclysm of 10 days that shook the world and vaporized Krakatoa, an island between Java and Sumatra. An umbrella of ash rose 50 miles high and sent sonic reverberations 7 times around the world. Deaths numbered 120,000.

When time permits I like to relax with a good mystery story. One of my favorite masters of the genre is Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, creator of Sherlock Holmes. A few days ago a story appeared on the front page of China Daily on 11-23-10, that is worthy in emulating the masters great classic: “The Dog That Did Not Bark.”