Bob Eisenbeis's Contributions

The Fed’s Policy and Its Balance Sheet

By Bob Eisenbeis – At its June meeting, the FOMC again raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 1–1¼ percent. They did so despite evidence that inflation had moderated and that the second estimate of first quarter GDP growth

Should We Be Optimistic or Pessimistic?

A key factor affecting the future of the country—with major implications for both investors and public policy—is the growth potential of the US economy. Among economists, equilibrium potential GDP is vigorously debated.

Jackson Hole – What Have We Learned?

Chair Yellen’s much-awaited Jackson Hole speech has been touted in the media as suggesting that there will soon be a second rate hike to follow the FOMC’s December 2015 move. However, many have noted that there...

Eisenbeis: Forecasting Errors Larger than Normal in Uncertain Economic Environment

Jun 8 – Dr. Robert A. Eisenbeis, Chief Monetary Economist at Cumberland Advisors, joins Cris to discuss the US economy and trends in US economic data. He notes that forecasting errors are larger than normal when economic...

Reflections on the Past Three Days and the Fed’s Policy Problem

Despite the huge surge in market volatility the past three days and the tumultuous drop in US equities, these moves tell us nothing about the state of the US real economy. China is having its problems, largely...

China and the US Economy: How Threatening?

Last week’s market moves triggered by angst over the decision by Chinese authorities to depreciate their currency have been painted by some as a disaster for the US. The focus is typically on those firms doing...

The Fed’s Dilemma

Correspondence with a longtime Camp Kotok fishing partner concerning some interesting omissions from the Fed’s most recent semiannual report to Congress piqued my curiosity as to how feasible would it be...

A Strong Dollar May Not Be as Bad as Feared

Pundits and journalists keep referencing the supposed negative effects that the recent surge in the dollar may be having on the US real economy and economic growth. The concentration is on the Energy sector and the impact on energy-producing firms...

Yellen's Recent Speech a "Game Changer" in Fed Communications Policy

Delivered only a week after the most recent FOMC meeting, Chair Yellen’s March 27 speech at a research conference, “The New Normal Monetary Policy,” held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, was arguably a game changer in many respects...

FOMC Minutes Support Third Quarter or Later Rate Hike

Careful reading of the FOMC minutes provides interesting insights as to the dilemma and the uncertainties policy makers face as they struggle with both interpreting the path that the economy has been on...

When Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates?

Last Friday’s jobs report stood at 252K jobs created for the month of December, closing out a year in which both GDP and employment have improved markedly. The economy produced an average of 246K jobs per month in 2013...

Was the Bailout Profitable for Taxpayers?

Let us consider both the analysis and numbers starting with the biggest problems first. The largest portion ($474 billion) of the supposed taxpayer gain results from remittances from the Federal Reserve to the Treasury...

FOMC Ends QE; Reiterates "Considerable Time" for Low Rates

As expected, the FOMC ended its purchases of additional securities at the end of October. There are five noteworthy points in the statement this time. First, the FOMC painted the picture of a moderately growing economy...

Preemptive Move on Rates Still Unlikely

Janet Yellen has given her widely anticipated opening speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Jackson Hole Conference. As expected, she devoted her remarks to the labor market, which is the subject of this year’s conference.

Hope Is Not a Strategy

The minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting, released last week, have gotten much attention. This is in part because of details the Committee provided regarding its discussions about framing the processes and procedures for returning interest rates to a level consistent with its statutory mandate of stable inflation and maximum employment.

Reverse Repos and the Fed Exit

This is the third installment examining the implications of the Fed’s experimental reverse repo facility. The issues surrounding this facility and its future role as a policy tool have only been heightened by the most recently released FOMC minutes. In fact some have argued that the associated repo rate may even replace the Federal Funds rate...

Raising Minimum Wage - More Harm than Good?

The recent CBO minimum wage study has sparked a lot of headlines because it concludes that if the US moved to a $10.10 minimum wage, the increase would cost the economy about 500K jobs, most of which would be those of low-wage workers.

It’s the Economy

As an administration’s term approaches its end, the media increasingly focuses on signature accomplishments and the president's legacy. Usually, what turns out to be important is not what the administration thought or planned for when it took office — witness George W. Bush’s 9/11 and...

The Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee on Identity Theft

The Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee, a longstanding group of economists and former regulators, meet four times a year at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC, and comments on regulatory and related developments in US financial markets.

Recent Hacks Reveal Systemic Risks in Electronic Payments Infrastructure

The recent disclosures by Target and Neiman Marcus of the theft of millions of customers’ credit and debit card information and related personal information raise many public policy issues, stretching far beyond the immediate incidents that need to be addressed.