Doug Short's Contributions

July Retail Sales Disappoint

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for July released this morning was rather disappointing. Headline sales came in flat month-over-month to one decimal, which conceals a tiny 0.4% decline at two decimal places.

July New Jobs Substantially Beat Expectations

This morning's employment report for July showed a 255K increase in total nonfarm payrolls along with an 18K upward revision for June and a 13K upward revision for May. The Investing.com consensus was for 180K.

Q2 GDP Advance Estimate: A Major Downside Surprise

The Advance Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 1.2 percent, up from 0.8 percent for the Q1 Third Estimate (a downward revision from 1.1 percent). Today's number was far below most mainstream estimates...

The Big Four Economic Indicators: June Industrial Production Rebounds

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as...

The Big Four Economic Indicators: June Nonfarm Employment

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

NYSE Margin Debt Decreased in May

The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and...

The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income for May

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: May Industrial Production Disappoints ... Again

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they...

The Big Four Economic Indicators: May Nonfarm Employment

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as...

A Closer Look at the This Mornings's ADP Employment Report

In this morning's ADP employment report we got the May estimate of 173K new nonfarm private employment jobs, an increase from April's 166K, which was an upward revision from 156K. Also, the March number was...

The Big Four Economic Indicators: April Real Retail Sales Up 0.8%

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they...

Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Rebound in May, Highest in Nearly a Year

The University of Michigan Final Consumer Sentiment for May came in at 95.8; it's the highest reading in nearly a year and a 6.8 point increase from the 89.0 April Final reading. This is its largest increase since 2013. Investing.com had forecast 90.0.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: April Nonfarm Employment

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as...

Q1 GDP Advance Estimate at 0.5%, Worse Than Mainstream Forecasts

The Advance Estimate for Q1 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 0.5 percent, down from the 1.4 percent in Q4 of 2015. Today's number was worse than most mainstream estimates, with Investing.com forecasting...

The Big Four Economic Indicators: March Industrial Production Sinks Deeper Into Recession

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

The Big Four Economic Indicators - Downtrend From 2014 Peak Continues

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

NYSE Margin Debt Falls Again: More Confirmation of a Major Market Turning Point Last Year?

The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: February Industrial Production Remains in Recession

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they...

Retail Sales: February Sales Show Renewed Weakness

The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report released this morning showed that seasonally adjusted sales in February contracted month-over-month and the previous month was revised downward. Headline sales decreased...

Secular Trends in Employment: Goods Producing Versus Services Providing

The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics has monthly data on employment by industry categories reaching back to 1939. At the highest level, all jobs are divided into two categories: Service-Providing Industries and Goods...

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