By Matthew Kerkhoff – That phrase doesn’t exactly describe the procession of events over the weekend at the G-7 meeting, but I think it’s a fair assessment of the state of the US economy. Let’s take a look at some...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – In case you’ve been under a rock for the last four months, we’re in the midst of an ongoing correction. Well … at least the major averages are. The market itself, as measured by breadth, has been setting...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – Recent talks over this past weekend have helped make it clear that both sides are interested in reaching an agreement. China has already agreed to increase its imports of U.S. products, and on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – With each passing day it looks increasingly likely that the February swoon was simply a run-of-the-mill correction, as opposed to the beginning of a full-fledged bear market. But that doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods just yet...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to predict the future. As always, should you or any member of your team be caught or killed, the Secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions.
By Matthew Kerkhoff – If you were to compile a list of the most effective recession predictors, the term spread, or difference between short and long-term interest rates, would likely be at the top of that list. This is because the term...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – The stock market is made up of millions of participants, acting on their own subsets of knowledge and emotion, pushing prices around for a variety of reasons. This group is who we typically define as...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – We’re going to look at a bunch of economic data today, but before we do, there’s something we need to clear up. Most economic data is released in a monthly cadence, but if you focus on monthly figures...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – Last month’s meltdown in the stock market began in earnest on February 2nd, the day that the January jobs report was released. The culprit, at least for the initial bout of selling, was an acceleration...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – Most investors are familiar with the seasonal pattern in stocks, encapsulated by the old adage, “sell in May and go away.” But is there a similar pattern on the fixed income side of the equation? That’s what...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – What’s the difference between a correction and a bear market? This seems like a straightforward question, but if your answer has anything to do with percentage declines (as in, a correction is a...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – Fourth-quarter earnings season is just getting started, and so far signs are pointing towards surprisingly good results. In particular, companies are seeing revenue growth exceed expectations by the widest...
Jan 31 – FS Insider interviews Matthew Kerkhoff, Chief Investment Strategist at Model Investing, on what the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has revealed when it comes to inflation…and why it’s so hard to predict.
By Matthew Kerkhoff – During an extended period of low volatility and high returns, such as we’ve had recently, the notion of risk tends to fade away. This draws more investors into the market and before you know it, everybody who was sitting on the sidelines...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – One of the topics that seems to be on the minds of investors right now is the idea of rising inflation. The recent global economic upturn, combined with a stimulative tax package, is causing some to believe that we’re about to see the whites...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – With tax reform now a done deal, investors and analysts alike are scouring over what the new policies will mean, and what companies will do with all this newfound wealth. One of the major changes now allows...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – If you could predict where inflation would be during 2018, you’d have a good idea of where long-term interest rates will head, how monetary policy is likely to develop, and therefore how the equity...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – It’s been a very bullish year, and yet major averages continue to attack their high-water marks time and time again. For many, this instills a sense of unease … a feeling that things are too good...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – Investing is a game of probabilities, and while those probabilities are not always clearly defined, sometimes they are. Case in point: year-end rallies. Let’s say I took an oddly shaped coin out of my...
By Matthew Kerkhoff – This economy may not be perfect, but it’s the only one we’ve got, so let’s be thankful for the many positive developments we’re seeing both here in the States and across the globe. This week, as you sit...
