Urban Carmel's Contributions

Urban Carmel on Running for Office and 2020 Macro Outlook

Dec 18 – FS Insider speaks with Urban Carmel of the Fat Pitch about his 2020 outlook and his run for public office. Urban drills down into major macro data points including housing, unemployment, the yield curve and LEIs. He also explains why he's running for...

Urban Carmel on Housing Cycle Peak, Trade War Fallout

Nov 14 – The housing market may have peaked for this cycle and, according to recent research by the Fed, trade wars typically shave about two percent off GDP in years following. Urban Carmel at the Fat Pitch discusses housing as a leading economic...

August Macro Update: Recession Risk Remains Low

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The largest risk to the economy is...

July Macro Update: The Economy Is Fine. Trade War Rhetoric Is the Main Risk

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The largest risk to the economy is...

US Debt Implosion – Is it Time to Worry?

By Urban Carmel – Debt is a perennial worry. It's a natural human tendency is to think of debt as bad, that by incurring debt we are living beyond our means. But much of what you hear about debt in the US is hyperbole.

Upcoming Weeks May Test Investors' Resolve, Says Urban Carmel

Jun 08 – FS Insider interviews Urban Carmel at The Fat Pitch on a number of important financial and geopolitical events taking place starting next week that are likely to make the markets a bit jittery. Urban also provides an update on the US economic outlook...

June Macro Update: Unemployment Claims at a 49 Year Low

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

Separating an Innocuous Correction From the Start of a Sinister Bear Market

By Urban Carmel – It's true that equities fall before the start of most recessions. So why bother following the economy; why not just follow the price of equities? "Market corrections" occur every 20 months, but less than a third of these actually becomes...

Demographics: The US Working Age Population Is in its Prime

By Urban Carmel – Starting around the year 2000, many investors began obsessing over the aging demographic profile in the United States. The concern seemed reasonable. The working age population in Japan had peaked in 1995, 5 years after the Nikkei...

May Macro Update: A Recession in 2018 Looks Increasingly Unlikely

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

Inflation Expectations Running Too High, Says Urban Carmel

Mar 15 – FS Insider interviews Urban Carmel, lead writer at The Fat Pitch, to discuss his latest macro update looking at the US jobs market, housing, the outlook for inflation, and much more. Urban says that they used the February...

March Macro Update: Nine Years Into the Recovery, Recession Risk Remains Low

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

Risk/Reward Heavily Biased Towards Near-Term Upside

By Urban Carmel – After gaining more than 7% by late January, US stocks have fallen into a 10% correction. It's the quickest decline of that magnitude from an all-time high in 90 years. While a fall in stocks was not a surprise, the speed and severity certainly were.

February Macro Update: Employee Compensation Rises to a 9-Year High

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

January Macro Update: Home Sales, Retail Sales and Manufacturing Surge Higher

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

What to Expect From Equities in 2018

By Urban Carmel – US stocks will likely rise in 2018. By how much is anybody's guess: the standard deviation of annual returns is too wide to get even close to a correct estimate on a consistent basis. Earnings growth implies 6%...

The Flattening Yield Curve Is Not a Threat to US Equities

By Urban Carmel – On its own, a flattening yield curve is not an imminent threat to US equities. Under similar circumstances over the past 40 years, the S&P has continued to rise and a recession has been a year or more in the future.

Solid Sales Growth and Margins at New Highs Drive 3Q17 Results

By Urban Carmel – For the third quarter (3Q17), S&P earnings rose 12% yoy, sales grew 6% and profit margins expanded to new all-time highs. These strong results are not due to the rebound in oil prices. Sales for the sectors...

November Macro Update: Recession Risk Remains Low

By Urban Carmel – The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The bond market agrees with the macro data.

Using Time, Scaling and Inflation to Frame Data (and Mislead Readers)

By Urban Carmel – How data is presented has a significant affect on the conclusion a reader will draw. Behavioral economists call this framing: "what you see is all there is." Presented below is a mental trick used to mislead readers.

apple podcast
Financial Sense Wealth Management: Invest With Us