Kurt Kallaus's Contributions

Economic Green Shoots Anticipate Trade Deal Bloom

Apr 22 – In 2018, the U.S. economy expanded beyond its sustainable production capacity, juiced by massive tax cuts and global preordering ahead of Trump’s tariff hikes. As winter approached...

Stocks Anticipate China Trade Deal and Stronger GDP

Apr 3 – The stock market discounts future expectations. The roaring rally of the past 14 weeks cast aside recession ruminations and increasingly anticipates an economic rebound coincident with an important trade agreement...

Aversion to Yield Inversion

Mar 29 – Normal economic expansions are supported by positive sloping yield curves where riskier long duration maturities offering higher rates of return than lower risk short duration debt. Investor aversion to an inverted yield curve...

Household Wealth Close to Stall Speed

Mar 12 – Corporate balance sheets are in excellent shape, but equally impressive is the net worth of the American household that grows virtually every single quarter year over year. During rare periods when it doesn’t expand, it typically...

Work Less, Earn More?

Mar 6 – Working fewer hours at higher pay sounds like a good thing. It may be better than it sounds. Both high skilled white collar and lower skilled blue collar jobs are requiring less...

Car Loans Crash – No Impact

Feb 28 – By early 2008, a few months after a major bull market peak in stocks, yellow flags on the U.S. economy turned red across the spectrum. Bond spread risks were spiking, consumer and business confidence surveys collapsing, and many indicators...

Where Is the Next Sovereign Debt Crisis?

Feb 19 – US debt surpassing 100% of our annual GDP sounds worrisome, yet China and Japan are much higher. While much of China’s debt is held in its quasi government owned corporations and municipalities, their total debt to GDP is estimated...

Market Outlook Pivots on U.S.-China Trade Deal, Says Kurt Kallaus

Feb 13 – He called the October 2018 peak in U.S. stocks and the December lows; now, Kurt Kallaus at ExecSpec.net says the future direction of the stock market is highly tied to a U.S.-China trade deal as the US dollar, commodities, and...

The Dog Ate My Eurozone Recovery

Feb 13 – European dysfunction is making Trump’s economic ‘strategy’ look prescient. We all know that trade wars are bad for all economies, yet the U.S. economy accelerated in 2018 while all others have slowed to a crawl as U.S. tariff threats across multiple...

Stocks Sink on Fear of Trade Deal Delay

Feb 08 – The China trade deal expectations continue to be the most important driver of US stock indices in 2019. Bullish Trump tweets and robust rhetoric from Chinese leaders had buoyed investors more than recent dovish Fed commentary. Having already priced...

Trade Deal Sentiment Helps Dollar Fall

Jan 14 – President Trump campaigned in 2016 on making the US dollar weak again to reduce the endless wave of record trade deficits with China. Clearly, he delivered on that pledge throughout 2017 as the dollar Index fell 12 percent and devalued almost 11 percent against the Chinese...

Setting Up for a First Quarter Market Low

Jan 7 – With stocks having sold off roughly 20% from their October peak, the market has already priced in some global weakness as well as slower earnings and GDP growth in the US. While uncertainty remains, we continue to forecast...

Frackers, Trump, & OPEC

Dec 21 – Frackers rule! The House of Saud may want to stabilize Brent Oil above $60 or $70 a barrel, but OPEC and Russia no longer control prices and haven’t since the 2015 energy recession. Every time OPEC cuts production they essentially transfer that lost output as a gift to...

Analyst That Called October Correction Says This Is a Pause In Ongoing Bull Market

Dec 11 – On this edition of FS Insider, analyst Kurt Kallaus gives his outlook regarding emerging markets, commodities, and the dollar. He sees a possible bottom in oil between December and February 2019 and he...

China Trade Tea Leaves: Deal or No Deal

Dec 7 – Concerns over the escalating U.S. – China trade war that could cause earnings to downgrade to contagion in 2019 has been a major factor in lower stocks prices. The S&P 500 and Dow stock indices just finished their third test of the...

Has Trump’s Economic Agenda Been Derailed? ExecSpec’s Kurt Kallaus Weighs In

Nov 8 - Kurt Kallaus at ExecSpec.net called the market peak in September, warning that oil and stocks were facing downside risks for the month of October. Now, with the October correction behind us and the market staging a strong...

No Trade Deal With China Means Weaker Stocks and GDP

Nov 6 – Stock prices will stay on the defensive in the months ahead due to the trade dispute between China and the U.S., peak profit margins and downward earning growth forecasts. The equity bull market can be sustained and a recession can be avoided...

Patience Needed When Stock Market Breaks 200-day Moving Average

Oct. 30 - The current market correction is down roughly 11 percent intraday from the Oct. 3 peak and six percent below the point when this moving average was broken, so statistically there is time and price potential for more pain in the months ahead...

Stock Market Correction Echoes of 2016 Election

By Kurt Kallaus – Our expected October correction mirroring 2016 allowed for a matching 7.4% drop as in 2016 and, so far, October 2018 didn’t disappoint with an almost identical drop of 7.9%. While higher interest rates and concerns of contagion...

Best Factory Job Growth in 34 Years

By Kurt Kallaus – Trump’s claim of bringing back American manufacturing jobs is boastful but does have some truth. Since the manufacturing halcyon days of the 1970s, the US dollar was allowed to depreciate and cheap labor abroad sent US...