Kurt Kallaus's Contributions

China Trade Tea Leaves: Deal or No Deal

Dec 7 – Concerns over the escalating U.S. – China trade war that could cause earnings to downgrade to contagion in 2019 has been a major factor in lower stocks prices. The S&P 500 and Dow stock indices just finished their third test of the...

Has Trump’s Economic Agenda Been Derailed? ExecSpec’s Kurt Kallaus Weighs In

Nov 8 - Kurt Kallaus at ExecSpec.net called the market peak in September, warning that oil and stocks were facing downside risks for the month of October. Now, with the October correction behind us and the market staging a strong...

No Trade Deal With China Means Weaker Stocks and GDP

Nov 6 – Stock prices will stay on the defensive in the months ahead due to the trade dispute between China and the U.S., peak profit margins and downward earning growth forecasts. The equity bull market can be sustained and a recession can be avoided...

Patience Needed When Stock Market Breaks 200-day Moving Average

Oct. 30 - The current market correction is down roughly 11 percent intraday from the Oct. 3 peak and six percent below the point when this moving average was broken, so statistically there is time and price potential for more pain in the months ahead...

Stock Market Correction Echoes of 2016 Election

By Kurt Kallaus – Our expected October correction mirroring 2016 allowed for a matching 7.4% drop as in 2016 and, so far, October 2018 didn’t disappoint with an almost identical drop of 7.9%. While higher interest rates and concerns of contagion...

Best Factory Job Growth in 34 Years

By Kurt Kallaus – Trump’s claim of bringing back American manufacturing jobs is boastful but does have some truth. Since the manufacturing halcyon days of the 1970s, the US dollar was allowed to depreciate and cheap labor abroad sent US...

Will Phillips Curve Revenge Trigger Inflation?

By Kurt Kallaus – Today’s near record low unemployment should support a robust economic expansion but has confounded economists expecting worrisome inflation. The inflation to unemployment sensitivity was strong in the 1960s and 1970s...

Buyer Beware in October

By Kurt Kallaus – With oil surging to an October peak and perhaps the most contentious mid-term election in history on November 2nd, we posit that stock prices are moving into a trading range with a corrective trend starting as we inch closer to the election...

Are Investors Tired of Winning?

By Kurt Kallaus – We are a couple years into a new net-asset expansion phase today, thus exit signs for stocks become more important over the next year. With the sentiment and wealth surge amidst rising tension with China just before the mid-term elections...

Economic Optimism Peaks Long Before Equities & GDP

By Kurt Kallaus – Recently concern has risen over a pending low in unemployment data among other signs of a major stock market and economic top. While a bit presumptuous to assume unemployment can’t go much lower...

Extreme Home Prices, Not a Mortgage Bubble

By Kurt Kallaus – Toll Brothers stock, one of the largest home builders, is down a whopping 35% from its peak this year as housing prices keep reaching new astronomical heights. The median home price in Tribeca, Manhattan is over...

Breadth Supports Stocks, Sentiment Still Neutral

By Kurt Kallaus – The broad-based S&P 500 and Russell Indices are hitting multi-month highs while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has been reaching record peaks with regularity this year. Despite the Wall of Worry over China Trade...

Are Trump’s Manufacturing Jobs Coming Back to America?

By Kurt Kallaus – The 300,000 manufacturing jobs already created under Trump plus the 900,000 since 2010 is a nice rebound for the factory sector. It’s the longest and strongest job growth period since the 1960s. However, the big picture is that a return...

Economy Still Has FAANGs

By Kurt Kallaus – Everyone knows Tech has led the stock market higher since Trump was elected and 2018 has again demonstrated strong tech leadership. The resplendent tech vanguard is dominated by the $3.3...

Small Bank Risk Spikes: Does It Matter?

By Kurt Kallaus – Almost a third of Banks are experiencing a spike in consumer credit card defaults to levels associated with recessions. While it could be a canary in the coal mine warning of a crisis rumbling through...

Yield Curve Hysteria

By Kurt Kallaus – Awareness of the yield curve and the dreaded potential for inversion as a harbinger of a recession has never been more prominent in the news. Esteemed Federal Reserve members, commercial...

Composition Not Compensation Suppressing Wages

By Kurt Kallaus – We all know intuitively that increasing demand combined with shrinking supply will elevate value. Thus esteemed economists are confounded by the “appearance” of below normal wage growth...

Is the US Economy Only in the Middle Innings?

Jun 21 – FS Insider interviews Kurt Kallaus at ExecSpec.net on the small business boom in America and how it is reminiscent of mid-cycle periods like 1994-1995 or 2004. Kurt discusses a wide range of economic indicators...

Backlog Logjam Signals Middle Innings

By Kurt Kallaus – The Atlanta Fed estimates a whopping 4.7% GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 2018 and ISM manufacturing backlogs are near three-decade highs. The current order backlog logjam and extreme small business...

Peak Optimism, Not Peak Stocks or Economy

By Kurt Kallaus – A Bloomberg article recently joined the chorus of stock market naysayers with a specious claim that the current record optimism displayed by Small Business surveys signaled that a market correction was due. Panics can occur almost anytime...

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