Kurt Kallaus's Contributions

Nov 6 – Stock prices will stay on the defensive in the months ahead due to the trade dispute between China and the U.S., peak profit margins and downward earning growth forecasts. The equity bull market can be sustained and a recession can be avoided...

Oct. 30 - The current market correction is down roughly 11 percent intraday from the Oct. 3 peak and six percent below the point when this moving average was broken, so statistically there is time and price potential for more pain in the months ahead...

By Kurt Kallaus – Our expected October correction mirroring 2016 allowed for a matching 7.4% drop as in 2016 and, so far, October 2018 didn’t disappoint with an almost identical drop of 7.9%. While higher interest rates and concerns of contagion...

By Kurt Kallaus – Trump’s claim of bringing back American manufacturing jobs is boastful but does have some truth. Since the manufacturing halcyon days of the 1970s, the US dollar was allowed to depreciate and cheap labor abroad sent US...

By Kurt Kallaus – Today’s near record low unemployment should support a robust economic expansion but has confounded economists expecting worrisome inflation. The inflation to unemployment sensitivity was strong in the 1960s and 1970s...

By Kurt Kallaus – With oil surging to an October peak and perhaps the most contentious mid-term election in history on November 2nd, we posit that stock prices are moving into a trading range with a corrective trend starting as we inch closer to the election...

By Kurt Kallaus – We are a couple years into a new net-asset expansion phase today, thus exit signs for stocks become more important over the next year. With the sentiment and wealth surge amidst rising tension with China just before the mid-term elections...

By Kurt Kallaus – Recently concern has risen over a pending low in unemployment data among other signs of a major stock market and economic top. While a bit presumptuous to assume unemployment can’t go much lower...

By Kurt Kallaus – Toll Brothers stock, one of the largest home builders, is down a whopping 35% from its peak this year as housing prices keep reaching new astronomical heights. The median home price in Tribeca, Manhattan is over...

By Kurt Kallaus – The broad-based S&P 500 and Russell Indices are hitting multi-month highs while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has been reaching record peaks with regularity this year. Despite the Wall of Worry over China Trade...

By Kurt Kallaus – The 300,000 manufacturing jobs already created under Trump plus the 900,000 since 2010 is a nice rebound for the factory sector. It’s the longest and strongest job growth period since the 1960s. However, the big picture is that a return...

By Kurt Kallaus – Everyone knows Tech has led the stock market higher since Trump was elected and 2018 has again demonstrated strong tech leadership. The resplendent tech vanguard is dominated by the $3.3...

By Kurt Kallaus – Almost a third of Banks are experiencing a spike in consumer credit card defaults to levels associated with recessions. While it could be a canary in the coal mine warning of a crisis rumbling through...

By Kurt Kallaus – Awareness of the yield curve and the dreaded potential for inversion as a harbinger of a recession has never been more prominent in the news. Esteemed Federal Reserve members, commercial...

By Kurt Kallaus – We all know intuitively that increasing demand combined with shrinking supply will elevate value. Thus esteemed economists are confounded by the “appearance” of below normal wage growth...

By Kurt Kallaus – The Atlanta Fed estimates a whopping 4.7% GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 2018 and ISM manufacturing backlogs are near three-decade highs. The current order backlog logjam and extreme small business...

By Kurt Kallaus – A Bloomberg article recently joined the chorus of stock market naysayers with a specious claim that the current record optimism displayed by Small Business surveys signaled that a market correction was due. Panics can occur almost anytime...

By Kurt Kallaus – This week the markets are dealing with the fear of an Italian political crisis if Italy leaves the Eurozone and defaults on its debt, adding yet another layer of uncertainty into the markets beyond China, NAFTA, North Korea, and Iran. Stocks are unlikely...

By Kurt Kallaus – As the China trade war rhetoric in 2018 finally shifts toward intensifying negotiations in late May, the clueless global audience are pawns in a tit-for-tat public relations (PR) campaign by the US and China. The US is demanding the elimination...