Jim Welsh's Contributions

Weekly Technical Review: Lower Inflation Spurs Rotation

Jul 18, 2024 – After the CPI report on July 11, Semiconductor and Mega Cap stocks sold off sharply. The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell -3.8% from its intra-day high as Nvidia shed -6.7%. On Friday, these sectors rallied as Momentum players...

Weekly Technical Review: Softness in Services and Labor Market

Jul 9, 2024 – Services comprise 80% of GDP so changes in the level of growth in services will determine when and how much the economy slows. One month doesn’t make a trend but it can offer a clue. In June, the ISM Services Index...

July Macro Tides: Heightened Risk = Caution

Jul 1, 2024 – The BCA Unemployment Model predicted the recessions in 1980, 1982, 1990, 2001, and in 2008-2009 with a lead time of less than 6 months and has never issued a false positive. In March, the BCA model generated a recession signal...

Weekly Technical Review: Standing on a One-Legged Stool

Jun 25, 2024 – Flamingos can stand on one leg for a long time but the stock market can only manage that feat until there is a reason to sell. An absence of selling pressure and a positive fundamental narrative can stretch the market’s ability to stand on one leg...

Jim Welsh: Cracks Starting to Appear, Be Prepared for Headwinds Into Second Half

Jun 21, 2024 – Economic data in the US is now consistently falling short of expectations, with slowing consumer spending and rising state-level unemployment signaling trouble. Jim Welsh of Macro Tides, who dismissed recession...

Jim Welsh on Higher Energy Prices, Higher Gold, and Higher Interest Rates

Apr 5, 2024 – In this episode of the Financial Sense Newshour, Jim Puplava and Macro Tide's Jim Welsh discuss the investment backdrop for investors today when it comes to the large amount of spending by the US government and...

Jim Welsh on Booms, Busts, and Borrowing Costs; Also, Dying of Money Reprise Interview

Feb 23, 2024 – After this week's wrap-up, Financial Sense Newshour speaks with Jim Welsh at Macro Tides about market booms and busts that correspond to secular (long-term) interest rate trends. Jim believes we are in the early stages...

Jim Welsh on 17-Year Cycle; Art Berman Predicts Peak in the Permian

Jan 12, 2024 – After this week's wrap-up, Financial Sense Newshour's Jim Puplava speaks with Jim Welsh at Macro Tides about an important 17-year cycle followed by an outside-the-box interview with Art Berman, who makes the case...

Jim Welsh on Soaring Stock Market, Wall Street Surprises

Dec 15, 2023 – After this week's market wrap-up, Financial Sense Newshour speaks with Jim Welsh at Macro Tides about the big surge in the stock market this month as the consensus increasingly expects a perfect trifecta...

Jim Welsh on Refinancing Costs, Tightening Credit, and the 2024 Outlook

Sep 29, 2023 – After this week's wrap up with Ryan Puplava, Financial Sense Newshour speaks with Jim Welsh at MacroTides to get an update on his big picture outlook for the US economy and markets. Jim says that the markets are...

Jim Welsh on Correction Risk; Frank Holmes on US Debt Downgrade, Metals Outlook

Aug 4, 2023 – Financial Sense Newshour speaks with Jim Welsh at Macro Tides and Frank Holmes at US Global Funds on the risk for a market correction as bond yields (borrowing costs) climb higher into restrictive territory...

Time to Party Like It's 1999? Jim Welsh on Tech and the Economic Outlook

Jul 5, 2023 – Jim Welsh from Macro Tides suggests that previous predictions of a recession for last year or the first half of the present year were too early. However, he points out that the most trustworthy indicators of an impending recession...

Jim Welsh: Next Domino for Recession Just Fell While Investors Are Getting All Bulled Up

Jun 9, 2023 – After this week's market wrap-up, Financial Sense Newshour speaks with Jim Welsh at Macro Tides about how another recession domino just fell right at the same time investors are getting all bulled upon on tech stocks...

Jim Welsh on the Three Indicators Flashing Red for Recession

Apr 7, 2023 – After this week's market wrap-up, Financial Sense Newshour speaks with Jim Welsh at Macro Tides to get an update on his outlook for the markets and the economy. Next Marshall Adkins, Head of Energy Investment Banking...

Big Picture: Is the Commodity Bull Market Still Intact?

Mar 3, 2023 – After this week's wrap-up, Financial Sense's Jim Puplava speaks with Jim Welsh at Macro Tides and Ryan Sweet at Oxford Economics about the outlook for the economy and the markets. Then, in the latter half of today's program...

Big Picture: Investing for the Decade Ahead; Special Guests: Jim Welsh and Danielle DiMartino Booth

Jan 13, 2023 – After this week's wrap-up, Financial Sense Newshour speaks with Jim Welsh and Danielle DiMartino Booth to get their view on the odds for a 2023 recession, the likelihood of a contentious debt ceiling debate and potential US debt...

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